Fans who like shootouts should be in for a treat on Monday night. The game’s total for the Cowboys at the Chargers is over 50, and the spread is slight. There isn’t a DST to be found on either table of suggested picks. Instead, the tables are filled with high-end studs and viable bargain selections to offset the salaries for the superstars. Determining the best choices for Captain/MVP and the optimal lineup constructions will be fun, too.
Game: Dallas Cowboys at Los Angeles Chargers
Spread: DAL -1.5
Over/Under: 51.0 Points
Cowboys Analysis: It hasn't been a banner year for Dak Prescott. So, fading him isn't outrageous. Yet, it's a dreamy get-right matchup, and the Cowboys are passing a ton in neutral game scripts. First, per Pro-Football-Reference, the Chargers have the 10th-lowest pressure rate (20.6%). Second, they've allowed the most passing yards per game (299.8) and seven touchdowns, with only three interceptions in four games.
Third, according to RotoViz's pace app, Dallas has passed on 66% of their 86 plays in a neutral game script this year. Additionally, the Chargers' opponents have passed on 62% of their 227 plays in a neutral game script. The setup is perfect for Prescott, making him a high-upside pick, even with his mediocre numbers in 2023 in mind.
CeeDee Lamb is Dallas's No. 1 pass-catching weapon. He leads the team in receptions per game (5.4) and receiving yards per game (71.6). However, Lamb's 35 targets in five games aren't in alpha-wideout territory.
He could smash this week, though. According to The 33rd Team, the Chargers have permitted the fourth-most DraftKings (26.7) and FanDuel (21.2) points per game to slot wide receivers. Los Angeles has also allowed the third-most DK (24.3) and the fourth-most FD (18.6) points per game to perimeter wide receivers.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), in the previous three weeks, Lamb aligned in the slot on 67.6% of his passing snaps and wide for 31.4% of them. Lamb's an excellent stylistic matchup against LA's zone-heavy defense. According to PFF, the Chargers have played zone coverage at the seventh-highest rate (81.9%) this year. In 2022, Lamb paced the Cowboys in targets (85), receptions (63) receiving yards (793 at 2.39 Yards per Route Run (Y/RR)) and touchdown receptions (five) against zone coverage. This year, he leads the Cowboys in targets (19), receptions (14) and receiving yards (193 at 2.03 Y/RR) against zone coverage.
Jake Ferguson is the No. 2 option in the passing game, ranking second on the club in targets (28) and receptions per game (4.0) and third in receiving yards per game (35.0). The second-year tight end is also rock-solid against zone coverage, tallying 1.52 Y/RR in 2022 and 1.38 Y/RR in 2023.
Michael Gallup is underpriced relative to his production. He's second on the Cowboys in receiving yards per game (36.0), first in receiving yards in the previous three weeks (166), second in yards against zone coverage this year (111) and averages a solid-if-unspectacular 3.0 receptions per game. Thus, Gallup is the best bargain on the slate.
Rookie Luke Schoonmaker has only one reception for a one-yard touchdown this year. Still, he ran 24 routes in the previous three weeks, and Prescott loves to throw to tight ends. Therefore, Schoonmaker is a worthwhile punt at DK for the minimum salary.
Tony Pollard is one of the studs on this slate. The do-it-all back averages 68.0 rushing yards per game, 3.8 receptions per game and 19.2 receiving yards per game. He's also scored two touchdowns this year.
The matchup is favorable as well. The Chargers have allowed 92.5 rushing yards per game, 4.2 yards per carry, three rushing touchdowns, 6.8 receptions per game and 54.5 receiving yards per game to running backs this season.
Chargers Analysis: The Chargers's offense has run through Justin Herbert this season. This year, they've passed on 59% of their 235 plays in a neutral game script. The rocket-armed quarterback seemingly has a challenging matchup. The Cowboys have allowed the second-fewest passing yards per game (168.6), six touchdown passes and recorded seven interceptions this year.
However, they have the 13th-lowest pressure rate, and their elite numbers shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. They should be taken with a rounded spoonful of salt. The Cowboys feasted on cupcakes, namely the Giants, Jets and Patriots, three of the most pathetic passing offenses in the NFL. Yet, they peed down their legs last week against San Francisco's passing attack, getting carved up by Brock Purdy before he kicked back and relaxed on the sideline late in a blowout victory.
Herbert is averaging a robust 276.5 passing yards per game with seven touchdowns and one interception this season. He's also scampered for 13.8 rushing yards per game and three touchdowns. Herbert has a massive ceiling and is an exciting pick.
Keenan Allen is Herbert's top target in the passing game. The savvy veteran leads the Chargers in targets (44), receptions per game (8.8), receiving yards per game (108.5) and touchdown receptions (three). Heck, he even threw for a touchdown. The most significant concern for using Allen is the lack of Mike Williams to stress defenses vertically and garner attention. Nevertheless, Allen is a volume hog and a superb pick.
Joshua Palmer stepped up in the absence of Williams in LA's last game, tying for the team lead in routes (31) and pacing the Chargers in targets (eight) and receiving yards (77) on three receptions. The third-year wideout is also rock-solid against man coverage, which is ideal since the Cowboys play man coverage at the third-highest rate this year.
Palmer had 1.50 Y/RR against man coverage in 2022 and has 10 targets, seven receptions, 100 receiving yards and 2.13 Y/RR against man coverage this season. Thus, Palmer is an appealing middle-tier-salaried choice if he plays. However, he was added to the injury report on Sunday with a groin injury. Palmer is listed as questionable.
Gerald Everett doesn't dominate playing time at tight end for the Chargers. Nonetheless, he leads LA's tight-end rotation. The veteran tight end averages 3.3 receptions per game and 26.8 receiving yards per game. Sadly, Everett has a paltry one reception for six yards against man coverage this year. Yet, he had 24 targets, 17 receptions, 218 receiving yards, 1.96 Y/RR and three touchdowns against man coverage in 2022, providing optimism he can beat man coverage.
Quentin Johnston and Derius Davis weren't initially included as suggestions. However, Johnston would be an excellent choice, and Davis would have a compelling case for usage if Palmer is inactive.
The Chargers were cautious with Austin Ekeler's sprained ankle, and he should be ready to return to a massive workload as a runner and pass-catcher. The dynamic running back torched the Dolphins for 117 rushing yards, one rushing touchdown, four receptions and 47 receiving yards in Week 1. In 2022, Ekeler averaged 53.8 rushing yards per game, 6.3 receptions per game, 42.5 receiving yards per game and scored 18 touchdowns.
The Chargers have leaned heavily on the pass, as was noted above. Yet, Ekeler was out of action from Week 2 through Week 4. Moreover, Dallas's opponents have run on 51% of their 107 plays in a neutral game script. So, Ekeler might be busy as a runner.
He can also help soak up targets vacated by the injured Williams. The matchup isn't great, but it's not disastrous, either. The Cowboys have allowed 77.8 rushing yards per game, three rushing touchdowns, 4.2 receptions per game, 23.6 receiving yards per game and one receiving touchdown to running backs in 2023.
Final Thoughts: Herbert is my favorite Captain/MVP pick. However, Ekeler and Pollard are tantalizing pivots, and Lamb is slightly lower in the pecking order but viable, too.
Finally, the lineup construction options run the gamut from balanced to onslaught lineups tilting toward either club. Balanced is my preferred choice for gamers entering only one lineup, but building lineups of all construction types (i.e., balanced, onslaught for either team or slightly tilting toward either club) is advised for gamers entering multiple lineups in GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
