As crazy as it sounds, we are approaching the mid-way point of the NFL season. After a skinny 10-game main slate last week, we are rewarded with a full 13-game slate for this week of DFS action.
This article is aimed at deciphering values in the lobbies. It is not meant to be a roster builder. Instead, it will help identify some players priced below their production potential based on various factors for both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Let’s get into it.
NFL Week 8 DFS Value Plays
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts (PHI) vs. WAS: $8,200 (DraftKings)
Between backups starting for multiple teams and tough matchups, this is a week where paying up at quarterback seems to be the better move than dumpster diving for value and ROI. Hurts is a great choice this week for managers willing to spend up at quarterback and hunt for value elsewhere.
On a points-per-game basis, he is the QB2 overall; to match his salary. Per Ryan McDowell, he leads all quarterbacks in QB1 finishes this season with six. He leads the position in rushing touchdowns (six), is 11th in passing touchdowns (nine), and has the seventh-most passing yards with 1,821.
The Commanders are allowing the third-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and a 2.0 passing touchdown per game average, which is also at the top of the league. They’ve allowed two or more passing touchdowns in each of the last four games, including two touchdowns to Hurts back in week four.
Hurts will again finish as a QB1 and could finish as the overall top quarterback this week. That is foundational for a winning lineup. He will be heavily rostered and therefore is better utilized in cash games.
Dak Prescott (DAL) vs. LAR: $7,300 (FanDuel)
At first, this may seem like a reach, but hear me out. Prescott has not been lighting up the scoreboard as much as some thought he would this season. His 14.6 fantasy points per game is currently being outdone by the likes of C.J. Stroud, Brock Purdy, Sam Howell, Baker Mayfield, Desmond Ridder, and Joshua Dobbs. In six games played, Dak has thrown for more than one touchdown only once. While all of that looks fairly negative, there are signs of life from the scrappy signal caller.
In their game before their bye, Prescott threw for 272/1 and rushed for 40 yards and a score on his way to the overall QB1 for the week. He is relying on his legs less than in the previous seasons, but showed that facet of his game is not entirely gone, adding a dual-threat potential to his production.
On paper, the Rams have been tough against the pass, but some of that is subterfuge. In Week 1 and Week 2, Geno Smith and Brock Purdy simply allowed their run game to do the damage. In Week 3, Joe Burrow possessed the mobility of a 40-something-year-old after a tough night of pickup basketball. In Week 4, Anthony Richardson did damage both through the air and on the ground. He managed 200 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 56 rushing yards, and another score on the ground.
In Week 5, Hurts lit them up for over 300 through the air, 72 on the ground, and a pair of mix-and-match touchdowns. Joshua Dobbs had a mediocre outing the following week, but still managed 47 rushing yards. Last week, Kenny Pickett completed 68% of his passes against them, a season-high, for 230 scoreless yards. Again, letting the run game handle the scoring.
Prescott has sneaky appeal with the weapons at his disposal, a running game that has not truly clicked this season, and the potential shoot-out factor that this game represents. Prescott is a high-risk/high-reward DFS option that should be used in tournaments/GPP contests and only for those with the intestinal fortitude to do so.
Running Backs
Isiah Pacheco (KC) vs. DEN: $6,100 (DraftKings)
Pacheco only has two games under 10 PPR points this season, one of which was 9.4, and both came in the first two weeks. Since then, he is averaging 17.7 PPR points per contest and has four touchdowns this season. He is averaging 14.2 rushing attempts and 3.2 targets per game. The volume is there for the right matchup, and it is on deck.
The Broncos are allowing the most fantasy points to running backs this season. They’re allowing an average of 143.6 rushing yards, 1.1 rushing touchdowns, 55.0 receiving yards, and 0.6 receiving touchdowns to running backs this season. Pacheco hung a modest 16/62/0 line on them back in week six. The averages are in favor of Pacheco having a better game this time around, and his notching another score is highly probable.
Pacheco has the volume and the matchup this week. He can used in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Derrick Henry (TEN) vs. ATL: $8,000 (FanDuel)
The elephant in the room is that the Falcons have actually been extremely stingy against opposing running backs. They’re allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position. However, there is a side to this equation that could shift the average a little bit. Thus far, only two running backs have had 20 carries against the Falcons. Travis Etienne (20/55/0) and Dameon Pierce (20/66/0).
Last season, Ryan Tannehill was out for week eight (weird, huh?) and Derrick Henry carried the ball 32 times for 219 rushing yards and two scores. In fact, during three games in which Henry was active and Tannehill was not he averaged 24 carries, 153.3 rushing yards, and 1.67 rushing touchdowns.
Rookie Will Levis is going to get the start and if it goes poorly, Malik Willis will step in. Either way, Henry is getting the rock early and often. His volume alone makes him an excellent ROI value even at the $8,000 salary.
Wide Receivers
George Pickens (PIT) vs. JAX: $5,600 (DraftKings)
Thus far, Pickens is averaging the 18th-most fantasy points per game among wide receivers. He only has two touchdowns, which is the only reason he is not higher in that stat, and that is not entirely his fault. In 19 career games, Kenny Pickett has only thrown more than one touchdown pass once, and we’re not entirely sure that was not accidental. Pickens is averaging 18.5 yards per reception and a robust 24% target share.
While the fantasy community may have expected his recent burst of production to diminish upon the return of annual target hog, Diontae Johnson…it did not. Even with Johnson back in the lineup, Pickens went over the 100-yard threshold for the second consecutive week, and his third of the season. Pickens has double-digit PPR points in four of five games this season.
The Jaguars allow 172.4 receiving yards, 1.1 receiving touchdowns, and the 11th-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Diontae Johnson has been on the injury report this week but seems to be trending towards playing. If Johnson is absorbing more of the better defensive coverage, Pickens could be in a for a big game, his third score of the season, and providing value to his DFS managers.
Pickens’ cost versus production is enough of a value to play him comfortably in both cash and GPP contests this week.
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. ARI: $6,500 (FanDuel)
Flowers has only been under 50 receiving yards once this season and is maintaining a 26% target share as a rookie. He has been nothing short of consistent thus far. However, with only one touchdown on the season, it feels like fantasy managers are still waiting for that week-winning game.
The Cardinals shuffle in from stage right. The Cardinals are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points to receivers. Over the last two weeks they have allowed three touchdowns and three receivers to go over the 100-yard mark.
Lamar Jackson has looked particularly sharp and aggressive through the air recently. That trend should continue against a beatable opponent and Zay Flowers has some appeal if the Cardinals are primarily trying to account for Mark Andrews.
Flowers has a blow-up game on the horizon. Personally speaking, I want to be on the cheaper side of the salary when it occurs. Flowers is consistent enough to use in cash contests as well as offer potential untapped upside for GPP’s.
Tight Ends
Dallas Goedert (PHI) vs. WAS: $4,600 (DraftKings)
Yes, A.J. Brown is the preferred stack if utilizing the Hurts recommendation at the top, but he comes with a hefty $8,000 salary to land him on a roster. This is not typically a stacking article, but the value is present.
In the first four games of the season, Goedert was almost on a milk carton. He scored less than 10 PPR points in each of those contests and could not have found the red zone, much less the end zone, with a map and a witching wand to lead him. In Week 5, the Eagles and Hurts remembered having a big-bodied guy who could operate the middle of the field and create decent mismatch opportunities and the production came in.
From Week 5 forward, Goedert has been the TE2, TE15, and TE4 respectively. During that stretch, he is averaging 7.3 targets, and six catches for 78.6 yards and has scored twice.
The Commanders are allowing the ninth-most fantasy points to tight ends this season. They’re allowing 0.6 receiving touchdowns to the position, which is the third-highest rate in the league.
Goedert has scored in two of his last three games and finds himself in a generous matchup. At cost, he is a great stacking option for those rolling with Hurts.
Hunter Henry (NE) vs. MIA: $5,200 (FanDuel)
Remember the first three weeks of the season when Henry was the overall TE3 in fantasy and had the second-most touchdowns for the position? It seems like so long ago. Over the last three weeks, he has a total of eight targets that he converted into 34 scoreless yards.
The Dolphins are allowing 7.3 targets, 5.6 receptions for 55.6 receiving yards, and 0.4 receiving touchdowns to the position. Over the last three weeks, they’ve allowed 77 or more receiving yards twice and one score.
The Dolphins are most likely going to be leading the majority of this game, putting what appears to be a revitalized Mac Jones into pass-happy mode. Henry could once again be leaned on between the 20s and sought after in the red zone like days of yore.
He is a GPP option this week.
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John Hesterman is a featured writer and Expert Consensus Ranker at FantasyPros. He also writes for DynastyLeagueFootball.com. For more from John, check out his archive and follow him on Twitter/X @John_Hesterman.
