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NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 12 (2023 Fantasy Football)

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 12 (2023 Fantasy Football)

It’s Thanksgiving week, and as a result, the NFL slate is spread across multiple days. There are three games to soak up on Turkey Day itself, and even a Black Friday 3 p.m. EST game!

It doesn’t condense the main slate as much as we think, though, and we still have 10 games to tackle for Sunday. The injury bug is still hitting, so let’s see what pricing DraftKings has for us to exploit.

Happy Thanksgiving, everyone!

NFL DFS Pricing Exploitation: Week 12

QUARTERBACK

Gardner Minshew (QB – IND) | $5,100 vs. TB

Gardner Minshew has absolutely bottomed up in the past two games but so has his price tag. He’s sitting at $5,100, which is almost “backup QB” pricing, and gets arguably one of the best matchups you can ask for. The Colts face off against the pass-funnel Buccaneers, who have allowed the second-highest YPA and the third-most Fantasy Points Per Game (FPPG) to opposing QBs. Tampa Bay just allowed Brock Purdy to achieve the first 49ers perfect passer rating since Joe Montana and also gave up C.J. Stroud‘s epic 470-yard, five-TD game in Week 9.

RUNNING BACK

Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) | $6,400 vs CAR

After many years of wondering when it was going to happen, Derrick Henry is finally starting to show a low floor. Still, it’s not necessarily his fault. The Tennessee offense in general has been very inefficient, and it’s showing in all facets. Henry has also faced two brutal matchups in a row with Tampa Bay and Jacksonville. His lousy recent box scores are reflected in his price tag. This week, he gets the ultimate slump-busting matchup against Carolina that even Tony Pollard exploited. The Panthers have allowed the second-most FPPG to RBs and a whopping 17 all-purpose TDs. Henry should be popular this week, and rightfully so.

Rachaad White (RB – TB) | $6,100 @ IND

I’m not sure what Rachaad White has to do to see his price tag increase. Over the past five weeks, he’s finished as:

  • RB16
  • RB11
  • RB1
  • RB12
  • RB13

He also gets a pace-up matchup against the Colts and is one of few true bell-cow backs left in the NFL. White has logged over an 80% snap share in four straight weeks now and has 21 targets in that span. The Colts allow the fourth-most FPPG to opposing RBs.

WIDE RECEIVER

Rondale Moore (WR – ARI)Greg Dortch (WR – ARI) | $3,600 & $3,300 vs. LAR

I’ll be honest:  I’m not entirely sure which of these two is the better start moving forward, but each of them will have their place in DFS contests at sub-4k price tags. The entire Arizona offense has seen a significant boost since Kyler Murray returned, and these WRs have been in the thick of it.

Two weeks ago, Rondale Moore received eight targets at minimum price, but he only got one this past week (thankfully, he turned it into a 48-yard TD).

On the other hand, Greg Dortch was targetless in Week 10 but had eight targets last week. Ultimately, how you play these two should be dictated by rostership, but both are solid values in Week 12.

Justin Watson (WR – KC) | $3,000 @ LV

It’s tough to know what to make of Justin Watson’s performance Monday night, but I do know that he warrants attention after receiving 11 targets (leading the Chiefs). It’s entirely possible Watson puts up a bagel in week 12, but his price is sitting at the absolute minimum (thank you, primetime game pricing), which means there is almost no risk. Patrick Mahomes is his quarterback, and the Raiders have allowed the seventh-highest YPA this year.

TIGHT END

Trey McBride (ARI) | $4,700 vs. LAR

Trey McBride is apparently an evergreen entry into my articles, but DraftKings refuses to recognize where his price point should actually be. With Travis Kelce coming in at almost double McBride’s price tag, it lets you know exactly how much value there still is to be unlocked with the second-year tight end. McBride has 41 targets over the last five weeks and played every single snap against Houston a week ago. He continues to be the first read for Kyler Murray, and the Rams have allowed the eighth-most FPPG to opposing TEs.

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