The first game in Week 13 is a battle of NFC contenders. However, the favored hosts are ascending, and the underdog visitors are descending. The game’s spread is vast, represented by the upcoming unbalanced tables of suggested players. All of the touted Captain/MVP picks are also from the host squad.
Game: Seattle Seahawks at Dallas Cowboys
Spread: DAL -9.0
Over/Under: 46.5 Points
Seahawks Analysis: The Seahawks have a pass-first offense. According to RotoViz's pace app, they've passed on 64% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 9. In addition, Seattle's a 9.0-point underdog. So, Geno Smith should be busy as a passer.
He was on a rollercoaster lately. Smith had only 180 passing yards and an interception in Week 12. However, the veteran quarterback had 369 passing yards and two touchdowns against the Commanders in Week 10. Smith was somewhere in the middle in Week 11, passing for 233 yards and one touchdown. It's a mid-pack matchup for him against the Cowboys. Smith is a useful option but not a must-use player on this slate.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is Seattle's No. 3 receiver. However, he wasn't a far cry behind DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the previous four games. Since Week 9, JSN's 126 routes were behind only Metcalf's 144 and Lockett's 138. The rookie wideout was also third in targets (21), tied for third in receptions (15) and third in receiving yards (197) in those games. It's more appealing to save cap space by dropping to JSN than to spend significant resources on Metcalf or Lockett.
Noah Fant has had only eight targets, five receptions and 35 scoreless receiving yards in his last four games. Yikes. However, he was fifth on the Seahawks in routes (87) during that stretch. As a result, Fant is a viable punt, namely on expensive Cowboys onslaught lineups.
Zach Charbonnet is an intriguing pick, especially if Seattle can keep this game more competitive than the spread suggests they will. Dallas's opponents have run on 50% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 9. The rookie running back was a workhorse last week without Kenneth Walker. Charbonnet had an 87.5% backfield rush share and ran 26 routes versus four for DeeJay Dallas. The bell-cow rookie parlayed his robust role into 47 rushing yards, four targets, four receptions and 11 receiving yards. The volume should be outstanding for Charbonnet against the Cowboys.
Cowboys Analysis: Mike McCarthy has surprisingly done the right thing and cut Dak Prescott loose. The Cowboys have passed on 65% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 9. They also had a 59% pass rate when leading by at least six points in those games. Conversely, Seattle's opponents have passed on 62% of their plays in neutral game scripts since Week 9.
It's an eruption spot for the white-hot Prescott. Among quarterbacks with at least 40 dropbacks since Week 9, Prescott is Pro Football Focus's (PFF's) highest-ranked passer, first in big-time-throw percentage (10.3 BTT%) and has the fifth-lowest turnover-worthy-play rate (1.2 TWP%). He smashed opposing defenses for 1,298 passing yards and 13 passing touchdowns and threw only one interception during his heater. Prescott is a no-brainer pick on this showdown slate.
CeeDee Lamb is a ball hog and a stud in Dallas's passing attack. Since Week 9, he has had the eighth-highest target share (30.0%) and the second-most air yards per game (158) among wide receivers. Lamb converted his elite underlying data into 32 receptions, 433 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns.
According to The 33rd Team, Lamb has a 62.9% slot rate this season. Lamb's slot usage is ideal for this matchup. In the previous four weeks, Seattle has allowed only 7.8 DraftKings points per game and 6.3 FanDuel points per game to perimeter wide receivers. Yet, slots have shredded them for 21.1 DK and 17.3 FD points per game during those four games.
Brandin Cooks has a 53.4% slot rate this year and can also barbecue Seattle's secondary. He's found his footing after a slow start. Since Week 9, Cooks was third in routes (134), third in targets (21), second in receptions (17), second in receiving yards (294) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two) on the Cowboys.
The veteran wideout had his two highest yardage outputs of the season in the previous three weeks, eviscerating the Giants for nine receptions, 173 receiving yards and a touchdown in Week 10 before popping off for four receptions, 72 receiving yards and a touchdown against the Commanders on Thanksgiving. Cooks has had at least three receptions and over 40 receiving yards in four of his past five games. Furthermore, Cooks has reached paydirt in four of his last six games.
Jake Ferguson is another critical component in Dallas's passing attack. He was second on the club in targets (24), third in receptions (15), third in receiving yards (184) and tied for second in touchdown receptions (two) in the last four weeks. The second-year tight end is also a favorite of Dak's in scoring territory, earning 10 targets on Prescott's 34 targets inside the 10-yard line this season. Since the Cowboys have a huge implied total, Ferguson's massive red-zone role is DFS-friendly.
Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin, in that order, are the most intriguing punts from the Cowboys. Tolbert ran only one less route than Michael Gallup since Week 9, running 83 versus 84. Moreover, Tolbert had 18 targets, nine receptions, 112 receiving yards and one touchdown versus 10, eight, 133 and one for Gallup. The second-year wideout also had 31.0%, 51.5% and 44.6% slot rates in the last three games.
Turpin is a gadget player. Nevertheless, he had four receptions, 49 receiving yards, two receiving touchdowns, two rush attempts and 13 rushing yards in his last four games. The 2022 USFL MVP is also an electrifying returner. Turpin hasn't returned a kickoff or punt for a touchdown in the regular season. However, he had a kickoff and a punt return touchdown in the preseason in 2022. Hooking Turpin with Dallas's DST is a viable strategy on this showdown slate since his first return touchdown in the regular season would count as 12 points if they're stacked together.
Tony Pollard is in excellent form after a rough stretch through most of the early part of the season. Since Week 9, he's 13th among running backs in rushing yards (246) and has had 4.7 yards per carry, 3.0 yards before contact per attempt, six broken tackles, seven rushes for 10-plus yards, three for 20-plus yards and two rushing touchdowns.
Pollard also had 16 targets, 13 receptions and 55 receiving yards in those games. He should stay hot in the literal best matchup possible. According to The 33rd Team, the Seahawks have allowed the most DK (35.7) and the most FD (32.8) points per game to running backs since Week 9. Seattle was gashed for 5.7 yards per carry and torched on the ground and through the air by running backs during those games.
Final Thoughts: Prescott, Lamb and Pollard are the Captain/MVP options. The best lineup construction is a Cowboys onslaught. However, a balanced lineup is acceptable for gamers entering multiple lineups into GPPs.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
