This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Last week was a bit of a tough week for my value plays, but there were a couple of gems including Brian Robinson, Tank Dell and Trey McBride. I feel more confident in the values for this week than I did last week when I was having a hard time finding anyone that I liked on the slate to save some salary.
This slate in general looks a lot better – let’s jump in.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 11
Quarterback
DraftKings
Brock Purdy (SF) vs. TB $5,800
This piece is part of our article program, featuring quality content from experts exclusively at FantasyPros. For more insight from Geoff, head over to GoingFor2.com.
Last week was a bit of a tough week for my value plays, but there were a couple of gems including Brian Robinson, Tank Dell and Trey McBride. I feel more confident in the values for this week than I did last week when I was having a hard time finding anyone that I liked on the slate to save some salary.
This slate in general looks a lot better – let’s jump in.
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 11
Quarterback
DraftKings
Brock Purdy (SF) vs. TB $5,800
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers give up the third-most points to quarterbacks on the season and the San Francisco 49ers have the second-highest Vegas implied total on the slate. Only the Detroit Lions are expected to score more than the 49ers. Purdy is also playing at home where he is much better: He averages more than 18 points per game, compared to on the road where he averages a little over 11 points per game.
Others to consider: Kyler Murray (ARI) $6,100
FanDuel
Justin Fields (CHI) @ DET $7,400
Fields is expected to return this week, and while I’m a little hesitant to play him on his first week back, the upside is undeniable. There is a good chance the Chicago Bears could end up with the No. 1 overall pick in next year’s draft, so they are going to want to decide if Fields is their future or not. The only way to do that is to let him play. The Lions are ranked 24th in points allowed to quarterbacks, so Fields should have a good game.
Others to consider: Trevor Lawrence (JAC) $7,000
Running Back
DraftKings
Brian Robinson (WAS) vs. NYG $5,800
Only the Carolina Panthers and Denver Broncos are ranked lower than the New York Giants in rush defense DVOA. Robinson is known more as a first- and second-down bruiser, but he showed last week that he can be a big part of this passing game as well with six targets. He turned that into 119 yards and a touchdown.
Others to consider: James Conner (ARI) $5,700 | Jerome Ford (CLE) $5,200
FanDuel
James Cook (BUF) vs. NYJ $6,200
The Buffalo Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey this week after their loss to the Broncos on Monday night. There is some speculation that Cook could be leaned on more to keep turnover-prone Josh Allen from throwing it as often as he has been. The New York Jets’ defense has a great secondary, but they can be run on as they rank 19th in rush defense DVOA.
Others to consider: Ty Chandler (MIN) $5,900
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
DJ Moore (CHI) @ DET $5,600
Fields is returning to the starting role, which can only mean good things for Moore who has failed to reach 60 yards receiving since his 230-yard three touchdown explosion in Week 5. The targets have been there for Moore with more than seven a game, so hopefully his efficiency can increase with Fields back.
Others to consider: Christian Kirk (JAC) $6,000 | Tank Dell (HOU) $5,900
FanDuel
Chris Godwin (TB) @ SF $6,500
Godwin has not been good this year with Baker Mayfield under center, in fact, he only has three games with double-digit fantasy points all season and only one receiving touchdown. So why do I like him? The 49ers are terrible at defending the slot wide receiver, which is where Godwin runs most of his routes. The 49ers have allowed to fourth-most receptions and third-most yards to slot wide receivers this season, including last week with Jacksonville Jaguars wideout Christian Kirk going over 100 yards.
Others to consider: DJ Moore (CHI) $6,800
Tight End
DraftKings
Pat Freiermuth (PIT) @ CLE $2,500
Though he is not officially off the injured reserve yet, Freiermuth was a full participant in practice Thursday and, barring a setback, should get the all-clear for this weekend. It’s an extremely tough matchup with the Cleveland Browns – who are the No. 1 team in defending the tight end based on positional DVOA this season (per FTNfantasy). But whenever you can get a player of Freiermuth’s caliber at the low price tag, you don’t pass that up.
FanDuel
Dalton Kincaid (BUF) vs. NYJ $5,800
After a slow start to the season, Kincaid has come on strong over his last four games: He’s scored double-digit points in all of them. He’s averaged eight targets per game and caught his second touchdown in three games this past weekend. The Jets are a tough matchup for tight ends, but I like Kinciad’s price with the upside he has.
Defense
DraftKings
New York Jets @ BUF $2,600
Firing the offensive coordinator is not going to fix Josh Allen’s turnover issues in four days. I expect the Bills to lean a little more on the run, but Allen is still going to have to put the ball in the air and this dominant Jets secondary could turn him over a few times, and maybe even score.
Others to consider: Arizona Cardinals $2,900
FanDuel
Arizona Cardinals @ HOU $3,400
As good as Houston Texans quarterbacks CJ Stroud has been, he’s still a rookie quarterback who is going to throw the ball a ton. He has been nothing short of spectacular at not turning it over, but the Cardinals have been able to get after the quarterback over the last few games with eight sacks in their last three games. If they can get to Stroud and force him into making a few bad decisions, the Cardinals defense could pay off their relatively cheap price.
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