And we’re back with your Week 12 injury report. As always, you can find the rest of your injury edge on sportsmedanalytics.com or Twitter/X @SportMDAnalysis and @FantasyPros.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Injury Report
Justin Jefferson
Lean towards sitting Week 12 and returning Week 14 (post-bye) at 100%. Hamstring data actually favors him playing now, but the comments very much suggest the opposite. The good news is that his re-injury risk will be down to 10% that deep into the return.
Cooper Kupp
Low ankles don’t cause WR production hits on average, by they do lead to a ~30% decrease in the likelihood of positive outlier games (20+ fantasy points).
Marquise Brown
TBD. Data projects 2/3 chance of sitting given the down-trending practice progression and his Friday DNP.
Zay Flowers
Data projects 70% chance of playing. Mild (~10%) production hit projected. Rookie WRs showing up on the injury report at this point in the season do have an abnormally high rate of lingering as mild injuries over multiple subsequent weeks.
Puka Nacua
Playing. Data projects mild (~10%) performance hit, but similar to Flowers above, there is the tendency for this to linger.
AJ Brown
Limited practice progression is actually pretty classic for a veteran post-Monday night game in the second half of the season. No performance hit or workload limits expected.
Odell Beckham Jr.
TBD. Data projects 75% chance of playing. AC sprains are typically associated with only a mild (~10%) performance hit on average.
Rachaad White
TBD. Lean towards sitting. If active, we would expect limitations. Saturday additions to the injury report are highly volatile in terms of productivity even if playing.
Dameon Pierce
Data projects 80% chance to play. However, the 1st game for RBs returning from high ankle sprains is associated with a 20% average efficiency dip. Typically no workload limits expected, but it’s hard to know how they’ll manage this backfield given Singletary’s emergence during Pierce’s absence.
Kyren Williams
Playing. Data projects a moderate-sized per-touch efficiency dip (~15%) but no workload limitations.
Derrick Henry
Playing. But older RBs listed with ankle injuries early in the week tend to be associated with decreased touches compared to baseline.
Khalil Herbert
Playing. 2nd game back from his high ankle projects Herbert for a 15% efficiency dip but no workload limitations.
D’Onta Foreman
TBD. Data projects 60% chance to play, but having a low ankle sprain + re-aggravation predicts maintained efficiency with lower workloads than baseline.
TJ Hockenson
Data projects 75% chance to play. The rib injury performance dip tends to average 2 weeks for elite pass-catchers, and this is his 3rd. Therefore, we’re expecting ~100% production.
Derek Carr
Playing. Clearing concussion protocol typically means return to full pre-injury production, but there is some mild concern for his deep ball given the recent AC joint sprain (shoulder).
Gerald Everett
TBD. Data projects 70% chance to play, but the listing with a chest injury is associated with a 20% performance dip for middle-tier pass-catchers.
And that’s a wrap for the moment. Feel free to check in on Twitter/X if we missed anyone you’re looking for!
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