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Not a great showing for my column last week, missing on guys like Sam Howell, David Njoku, and Juwan Johnson, but I did hit on Brock Purdy and James Connor, so I won’t hang my head too low.
This week looks like another good week for value. Let’s jump in…
NFL DFS Value Picks to Target: Week 14
Quarterback
DraftKings
Jake Browning (CIN) vs. IND $5,200
Fresh off a 29-point game in Jacksonville, Browning will be a popular choice at QB this week based on that performance and the fact that his price does not factor in that monster stat line because his price was set before that game. The matchup isn’t great, with the Colts ranking ninth in pass defense adjusted value over average (DVOA), but Browning’s price tag makes it worth it.
Others to consider: Russell Wilson (DEN) $5,800
Fanduel
Jake Browning CIN) vs. IND $6,500
It’s not often there is one player on both sites that I like so much that I can’t even justify recommending someone else. Browning’s price was set before the Monday night game, so his monster performance was not factored into his price tag. Take advantage of the misprice.
Others to consider: Joshua Dobbs (MIN) $7,300
Running Back
DraftKings
Zack Moss (IND) @ CIN $5,900
Moss was the slam dunk chalk last week but failed to come through with anything resembling what he did earlier this season. However, because he didn’t play well, his price tag didn’t go up much, and despite the bad showing, he still had 22 opportunities — you love that volume at his price. Fire him up again in this matchup against the 29th-ranked rush defense DVOA.
Others to consider: Javonte Williams (DEN) $5,800 | Jerome Ford (CLE) $5,500
Fanduel
Javonte Williams (DEN) @ LAC $6,600
Williams is probably my most recommended player on the season, and it’s time for me to admit that his breakout into a certified stud isn’t going to happen. With that said, $6,600 is still a good price for a player who will get 18-plus touches against a middling run defense ranked 22nd DVOA.
Others to consider: Zack Moss (IND) $6,800 | Breece Hall (NYJ) $6,400
Wide Receiver
DraftKings
Rashee Rice (KC) vs. BUF $5,400
The troubles at wide receiver for the Chiefs is widely known at this point, but Rice has not been the problem. He has 19 targets over the last two games, turning that into 16 catches for 171 yards and one TD. He led all Chiefs wide receivers in snap percentage last week and is looking like he will emerge as the WR1 in this offense — if he hasn’t already. The Bills are ranked 22nd in pass defense DVOA, and this game has the highest total on the slate at 48.5.
Others to consider: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) $4,100 | Elijah Moore (CLE) $4,500
Fanduel
Zay Flowers (BAL) vs. LAR $6,500
Zay Flowers was heavily involved in the offense in the first full game without tight end Mark Andrews. His eight targets were his highest mark since Week 6, which also coincided with the last time he scored a touchdown — which he did twice last week, the other one coming on the ground. The Rams are middle of the pack at 15 in pass defense DVOA overall, but they struggle mightily on the outside, ranking 20th DVOA to the left side and 18th DVOA to the right side. There is a huge misconception that Zay Flowers is mostly a slot wide receiver, but he only plays in the slot 28% of the time; the rest of the time, he is on the outside, where he can take advantage of the Rams’ corners.
Others to consider: Jaxon Smith-Njigba $5,500 | Rashee Rice (KC) $6,300
Tight End
DraftKings
Isaiah Likely (BAL) vs. LAR $3,500
Likely filled in admirably last week for Mark Andrews, and while he didn’t put up huge numbers, he received six targets catching four for 40 yards — the only thing missing was the touchdown. This week, he gets the 29th-ranked defense DVOA against the tight end, who also gives up the sixth most points to the position.
Fanduel
David Njoku (CLE) vs. JAC $5,500
Njoku could not get anything going last week in L.A., catching only two passes for 17 yards. However, there is reason for optimism as he was still second on the team in targets with six. He gets another good matchup with the Jags this week, who give up the 10th most points to tight ends.
Defense
DraftKings
Kansas City Chiefs the vs. BUF $2,600
After being dominant early in the season, the Chiefs defense has now had two back-to-back bad games against the Raiders and the Packers. But the turnover machine that is Josh Allen is coming to town, and I like my chances that Allen will account for at least two turnovers if not more.
Others to consider: Broncos @ LAC $2,800
Fanduel
Denver Broncos @ LAC $3,600
I had the Broncos in this column last week, and they did not pan out the way I had hoped after three straight stellar performances. This week, the Broncos get a struggling offense in the Chargers, who, outside of Keenan Allen, haven’t been able to do much offensively this season. Austin Ekeler looks washed, and they don’t have a second threat next to Allen in the passing game. Defenses know they can key on Allen to force you to beat them in other ways. Look for the Broncos to bounce back in a big way this week.
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