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4 Overvalued Best Ball Draft Picks to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

4 Overvalued Best Ball Draft Picks to Avoid (2024 Fantasy Football)

When it comes to best ball formats sometimes the term ‘better in best ball’ is thrown around for any player with a low floor and high ceiling. However, it’s equally important to view it from the other side of the coin as well and be aware of those players who might have a solid floor but very little access to ceiling outcomes. In this article, we’ll take a look at some players who lose value in best ball formats.

Overvalued Best Ball Players

Justin Herbert (QB – LAC)

Not every player loses value in best ball formats in an obvious way but the loss is still there nevertheless. Justin Herbert was a top-50 pick in both 2022 and 2023. Across those two seasons, though, he had just seven top-five weekly finishes. Herbert also finished as the QB11 in points per game (PPG) during 2023, scoring 18.5 points, a year after scoring 17.0 points per game and finishing as the QB15 in PPG. Herbert is a good quarterback and has undoubtedly deserved the praise he gets but the cost of taking him where he’s been drafted has been significant. In 2023, Herbert was drafted close to Breece Hall, Brandon Aiyuk, Christian Kirk and DeAndre Hopkins, meanwhile, the quarterbacks in the range of picks 90-110 included both Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins, who scored higher than Herbert on a per-game basis. Herbert’s floor is fine. After all, he had eight top-12 finishes out of 13 games in 2023 but the ceiling hasn’t shone through in a little while and Herbert might be a better fit for managed leagues where his floor can count for a bit more than in best ball.

Courtland Sutton (WR – DEN)

It might seem strange to put a player who scored 10 touchdowns in 2023 into this category but Courtland Sutton rarely displayed the week-winning weeks we might want to chase for best ball. Despite scoring plenty of touchdowns, Sutton never reached 20 PPR points in a week, something Gabe Davis did on five occasions last year. Sutton never hit 100 yards in a game either, only surpassing 70 yards on four occasions. In games where Sutton failed to score a touchdown, he finished above WR45 a single time. Across the course of a season, Sutton surpassed six catches twice. Sutton is a fine player, but in best ball, when he’s being drafted in the eighth round, he’s unlikely to be more than your WR3 on your team. A safe floor isn’t a massive attraction. Gabe Davis might not be everyone’s cup of tea but it’s undeniable player like Davis has ceiling outcomes we want in comparison to Sutton.

Jerome Ford (RB – CLE)

The Browns lost Nick Chubb in Week 2 of the 2023 season to an unfortunate knee injury that may well prove to be the first nail in the coffin of the impressive back. In his absence, many thought that Jerome Ford could go on to be a league-winner. Sadly, he would go on to impress in real football terms but not deliver a league-winning performance. Ford’s 13.0 PPR points per game ranked 23rd among running backs. While Ford recorded 13 top-36 weekly finishes he only finished inside the top 12 on four occasions, with 21 other running backs achieving that more often. His 13.0 points was a fine floor for a player drafted at pick 198 in 2023 but it doesn’t help our ceiling outcomes desire in best ball. Ford is currently being drafted at pick 133. While that 13.0-point floor in 2023 might have been ok for a lottery pick, we’re hoping for more ceiling at that price point.

Geno Smith (QB – SEA)

Perhaps things change now that Pete Carroll is no longer in charge of the Seattle Seahawks but Geno Smith wasn’t a valuable player to own in 2023 best ball, finishing as the QB24 in PPG, averaging 14.7 points and surpassing 20 on only three occasions. Out of the top 200 QB weekly scores this season, Smith was responsible for three of them. Smith had only two finishes outside of the top 24 quarterbacks all year but finished with 15.4 points or less in nine of the 14 weeks he played. This kind of floor can be useful in managed leagues, where you play a single opponent in any given week, but in best ball, you’re trying to gain an advantage on 11 other players in your league each week. Giving up 5-10 points at the quarterback position is ok if you have an incredible advantage at another position but more often than not this is the kind of difference over time that can leave your roster trailing the competition.

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