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9 Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts Experts Avoid (2024)

9 Fantasy Baseball Draft Busts Experts Avoid (2024)

Spring Training is in full swing, marking the true start of fantasy baseball draft season. Each new season brings the hope of a title to every team, the fans, and fantasy baseball managers. However, a gigantic step in achieving that fantasy championship is nailing the draft, and your chances of doing so increase when you find the undervalued players and avoid the ones who are most likely to bust.

Our featured analysts are back today to share who they’ve identified as 2024’s busts. Read on to help you in your upcoming drafts. And here are all of our Fantasy Baseball Draft Expert Sleepers & Busts.

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2024 Fantasy Baseball Busts

Bobby Miller (SP – LAD)

“My biggest fantasy bust is Bobby Miller. Currently being drafted in the top 80, Miller is one of many young 2nd and 3rd year pitchers lumped into a tier below the aces of the position. The problem is he’s often going 30-50 places before the next person in is tier. This is a problem when it is a player who tipped pitches in 2023, lacked confidence in his stuff at times and plays for a team that has repeatedly tossed aside scuffling starters for their next guy up. I am an outlier on this but I expect Bobby Miller to not be on the MLB roster at end of season for the Dodgers ”
Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)

Logan Gilbert (SP – SEA)

“Though Logan Gilbert raised his K% while lowering his BB%, Gilbert’s upside might be fading. Every pitch he threw had a higher xBA against. His fastball lost spin and became less effective as a put-away pitch, while getting hit hard. Where Gilbert can still be serviceable, the ADP around 65 is something to avoid with the amount of pitcher upside that follows. There legit might 15-20 pitchers going after him that prove to be more valuable.”
Christopher Welsh (FantasyPros)

Elly De La Cruz (SS, 3B – CIN)

“At just 22, Elly De La Cruz is certainly already one of the most electric young players in the league. He added 13 HR to his 35 SB across 98 games as a rookie in 2023. He has the potential to put up a 20 and 50, respectively, in those categories this year, and that would make him a very valuable fantasy producer. Still, for as high as he’s going in many drafts, De La Cruz is still an unpolished hitter that strikes out a ton (33.7%). He’s also much more likely to be a drain in AVG (.235) than an asset. The ceiling is quite high to be sure, but De La Cruz is no sure thing right now. ”
Nate Miller (FantasyPros)

Elly De La Cruz’s elite combination of power and speed is easy to dream about. Sadly, those tools won’t matter if his strikeout rate undermines them. According to FanGraphs, De La Cruz had a 30.3 K% in his first 99 plate appearances in The Show, but a .407 BABIP helped him post a .293 batting average. De La Cruz had a 34.8 K% and .312 BAIP in his final 328 plate appearances for the Reds last year. As a result, his batting average cratered to .216. De La Cruz’s upside is undeniable, but his price is too steep for a profile with his considerable bust potential. ”
Josh Shepardson (FantasyPros)

Elly De La Cruz at an ADP of 29 feels like a bust. Don’t get me wrong – I think he is an elite talent with the type of profile that is fun to have on a fantasy team. But I’m not buying that he will perform at his potential across all of 2024. The flashy, fun stuff masks the K% above 30 and an OBP hovering around .300. Additionally, the suspension of Noelvi Marte means that when he does get on base, he’ll be relying on inconsistent hitters like Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer behind him to drive him in (after he steals two bases, most likely). Again, to state clearly, I think he’s a great fantasy player who will be worth an ADP of 29 someday. I just don’t think it’s this year.”
Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)

Tyler Glasnow (SP – LAD)

Tyler Glasnow went to the Dodgers, and everyone seems to expect an immediate ace. He looks the part, but he’ll turn 31 this summer and has never surpassed 120 MLB IP in a season. Also, who is the last player Tampa traded away who got better in a new environment?”
Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)

Zac Gallen (SP – ARI)

Zac Gallen is one of my busts because he ace threw 243 innings combined between the season and playoffs last year. I’m a bit concerned by that workload along with a shaky second half. There are also other pitchers I prefer over Gallen at his ADP, like Logan Webb.”
Frank Ammirante (The Game Day)

Nico Hoerner (2B – CHC)

“I don’t trust Nico Hoerner to return his draft value. He is one of the best contact hitters in the game, which gives him a safe floor for a batting average. The question is, what else does he offer that separates him from other second basemen? The easy answer is to point to the 43 stolen bases that he had last season. While that is true, I’m much more likely to target later options at second base like Thairo Estrada or Andres Gimenez, who can essentially provide the same statistics.”
Corey Pieper (Fantasy Six Pack)

Cody Bellinger (1B, OF – CHC)

“I believe that Cody Bellinger is a candidate to be a significant bust this fantasy season. Expected statistics are to be taken with a grain of salt; however, it’s certainly worth noting that, per BaseballSavant, Bellinger was 8th worst in the MLB last season in BA/xBA difference and 5th last in both SLG/xSLG and wOBA/xwOBA. Along with this, Bellinger’s overall quality in contact (Exit velocity and Barrel rate) has remained around the 20th percentile, and his Hard Hit rate has hovered around the 10th percentile. If his numbers even out with his expected statistics and he fails to notably improve his contact metrics, he will be a fall-back candidate. ”
Rex Rutchik (Left Turns)

Blake Snell (SP – FA)

“Whenever Blake Snell signs with a team, he’ll get a bump in ADP, and many will expect a repeat of his Cy Young performance from last year. That assumes he will be in regular-season form quickly despite getting no work in spring training. It also assumes that he will land in a spot where he can pitch in a home park as favorable as San Diego or Tampa Bay. Snell is also notoriously volatile due to a career 10.9% walk rate that ballooned to 13.3% last year. There are far more factors pointing to a down season than a repeat of 2023, and I’m not willing to pay a top-100 draft price betting on the latter.”
Pierre Camus (Fantasy Endgame)

Luis Robert Jr. (OF – CWS)

Luis Robert Jr. is going to be this year’s biggest bust. He broke out last year with 38 homers and 20 steals with 170 combined runs and RBI, but his underlying numbers weren’t that far off from his 2022 season, where he finished with 12 HR and 11 SB in 98 games. His Max EV, Avg EV, K%, and HardHit% were all down a bit in ’23 compared to ’22, and his BB% was in the bottom seven percentile. The team around him doesn’t provide much protection, and pitchers can expose the holes in his swing. His career-high was only 98 games played before 145 last year, and he still carries plenty of injury risk. Even if he doesn’t miss time due to injury, there should be some regression.”
Chase Davis (FantasyPros)

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