Dynasty Trade Advice: Nick Chubb, David Montgomery, Tyreek Hill, Zack Moss (Fantasy Football)

Let’s dive into four veterans fantasy players might struggle with deciding about and see whether it’s time to trade them or keep them around a little longer.

Dynasty Veterans to Trade or Keep

Nick Chubb (RB – CLE)

Unfortunately, Chubb’s 2023 season ended after two games because of a gruesome knee injury. The veteran suffered a similar injury in college, but that was nearly a decade ago. Chubb scored 21.1 half-PPR fantasy points in five quarters of action last season before getting hurt. Adjusting for playing only five quarters of football, he averaged 16.9 fantasy points per game last year. By comparison, Chubb averaged between 14.7 and 16.6 fantasy points per game over the previous four seasons.

Had the star running back gotten suspended for the year instead of suffering a gruesome knee injury, fantasy players would want him on their team for 2024. Chubb’s explosive run rate of 7.1% last season was on par with his averages from 2022 (7.6%) and 2021 (7.5%), per Fantasy Points Data. However, he required multiple surgeries on the injured knee. Reportedly, the veteran won’t be ready for Week 1 and could miss half the season. The Browns have already added two running backs in free agency and could draft another.

Verdict: Trade

David Montgomery (RB – DET)

Many had doubts about Montgomery heading into last season. The veteran was coming off the worst year of his career, totaling a career-low 801 rushing yards with the Chicago Bears. More importantly, Jahmyr Gibbs was the new shiny draft pick and presumed featured guy in Detroit. However, Montgomery ended the season as the RB13, averaging 14.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game, totaling a career-high 13 rushing touchdowns in 14 games. The veteran was a plug-and-play RB2 for fantasy players every week.

Montgomery scored double-digit fantasy points in every game he finished but one in 2023. While Gibbs ended his rookie year as the RB10, he averaged only 0.2 more fantasy points per game than Montgomery. Furthermore, the veteran averaged 17.1 touches per game compared to 14.1 for the rookie in the 10 contests when both running backs played at least 35% of the snaps. The Lions want to run the ball, ranking seventh in rushing attempts last season. Don’t expect that philosophy to change anytime soon.

Verdict: Keep

Zack Moss (RB – CIN)

The veteran was the RB29 for the season, averaging 11.2 half-PPR fantasy points per game. Yet, Moss averaged 22 touches and 12.7 fantasy points per game in his five healthy contests without Jonathan Taylor, averaging 0.58 fantasy points per opportunity. However, he wasn’t an efficient runner. Moss’ 3.1% explosive run rate, 2.29 yards after contact per attempt and 51% stuff rate during those five games would have ranked in the bottom six among 33 running backs with at least 170 rushing attempts in 2023, per Fantasy Points Data.

While the veteran will replace Joe Mixon, fantasy players shouldn’t expect similar production. Mixon is one of the least efficient running backs in the NFL. Yet, he averaged more fantasy points per opportunity than Moss as the featured guy last season (0.78 vs. 0.58). More importantly, Chase Brown is a better runner. According to Fantasy Points Data, he had a higher explosive run rate (9.1% vs. 3.1%) and yards after contact per attempt (3.09 vs. 2.29) than Moss. Don’t be surprised if Brown is the Week 1 starter.

Verdict: Trade

Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)

Last year, Hill said he wanted to break the receiving yards record. While he fell short of breaking the record, the superstar had an outstanding season, leading the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards and 13 touchdowns. Hill was the WR2 in 2023, averaging 19.8 half-PPR fantasy points per game. The superstar was the focal point of Miami’s passing attack. According to Fantasy Points Data, Hill led the league in target share (31.1%) and receiving yards market share (40.2%) while finishing second in air-yards share (44.2%).

Despite having a career season at age 29, fantasy players should worry about Hill moving forward. The superstar’s production declined during the fantasy football playoffs despite Raheem Mostert and Jaylen Waddle missing time with injuries. He was the WR36 from Week 14 through Week 17, averaging 11 fantasy points per game despite receiving 10.3 targets per contest. Fantasy players saw Cooper Kupp have a career year in his age-28 season before struggling with injuries the past two years. Unfortunately, Hill could have a similar fate ahead of him.

Verdict: Trade

Dynasty Trade Value Chart & Advice

Whether it’s a dynasty startup draft or your rookie draft, we have you covered. Our team of fantasy football analysts includes Derek Brown, Pat Fitzmaurice, and Andrew Erickson. And Fitz and Scott Bogman will have you covered every week through the offseason with our Dynasty Football Podcast. They’ve all collaborated to provide our dynasty trade value chart. This is a dynamic chart created using a consensus of the analysts’ dynasty rankings.