Whether you’re a seasoned dynasty fantasy football manager or are new to the format, now is the time when start-up drafts pop up left and right. Unlike drafting in your standard season-long redraft leagues, what you do in a start-up draft will have ramifications for years to come.
Being prepared for your drafts is paramount to give yourself the best chance to win from day one. In this article, I’m going to dive into Dynasty Fantasy Football Average Draft Position (ADP) for your upcoming start-up drafts using our FantasyPros Dynasty Point Per Reception (PPR) Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) as a guide. Throughout the offseason, we’ll check in and see who is overvalued, undervalued, and priced just right in the dynasty start-up draft market.
This edition will look at four steals and deals for your dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts.
Dynasty ADP Steals & Deals
Finding a bargain is a nearly unmatched thrill in life. Here are players at every position that could prove to be long-term steals in your dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts.
Don’t overthink this one. Purdy has a lot of haters, but his performance speaks for itself. The 49ers signal-caller finished 2023 as the QB6 and ninth overall in fantasy points per game (FPPG) in PPR scoring. He is ranked QB13 in FantasyPros 1QB ECR rankings and 100th overall in PPR formats. For those of you who don’t like doing math, that puts the wunderkind QB’s ADP in the middle of the eighth round in a 12-team start-up draft.
Purdy will be a year older, wiser and deeper in the Kyle Shanahan system in San Francisco in 2024. Furthermore, all signs point to the return of Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel. The only way for Purdy to go is up.
Getting a guy with the upside of QB5, or better, for the foreseeable future at a massive discount in dynasty fantasy football start-up drafts is a no-brainer.
Like many dynasty managers, I can get caught up in the idea of building youthful rosters when drafting start-ups. However, there is also value to rostering veterans with at least a few productive years left who are being slept on. One such veteran is Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff.
Goff, who turned 29 in October, is coming off of one of the best statistical seasons of his eight-year career. His 4,575 passing yards and 32 total touchdowns landed him as the overall QB8 in 2023, the second-best fantasy finish ever (which I am sure he is absolutely over the moon about). Despite the impressive season, Goff is sitting at QB16 and 115h overall in the FantasyPros Dynasty ECR or a mid-ninth-round pick in dynasty start-up drafts.
While it may seem like Goff has been around the block, which is fair given his eight years of NFL service, he has yet to turn 30 and is surrounded by talent in Detroit. Head coach Dan Campbell has breathed life back into Goff’s once-floundering career. Furthermore, the Lions have Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown and most of their stout offensive line group under contract through 2024.
With the current trend of quarterbacks playing well into their 30s, Goff could still have nearly a decade of fantasy production left in him. The Detroit Lions are a franchise on the hunt for a Lombardi trophy, and they’ve been vocal about their loyalty to Goff and company to get them there. With an ADP in the ninth round of dynasty start-up drafts, Goff is the perfect value roster addition that lets you spend up elsewhere and be prepared for a title run in Year One.
Things are in flux in Chicago in a big way. The team’s future is up in the air, with questions about Justin Fields, who the new offensive coordinator will be and what the team intends to do with the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft. All the uncertainty around the Bears has caused some players, including former fourth-rounder Roschon Johnson, to see a considerable dip in the dynasty rankings.
Stuck behind Bijan Robinson in his time as a Texas Longhorn, Johnson didn’t exactly get the love he may have deserved heading into last year’s draft. Now seemingly stuck behind Khalil Herbert in an aimless offense, he isn’t a hot commodity. Johnson is sitting as RB33 and overall 89 in the FantasyPros Dynasty ECR.
However, not every pick in a start-up draft is about right now.
While it appears 2024 will again see Johnson slotted behind Herbert on the depth chart, he will likely see a bump in receiving work regardless of the coordinator/quarterback situation when the season starts. In 2023, he out-targeted Herbert 40 to 31 while racking up 209 receiving yards to Herbert’s 134. With a likely increase in that workload, Johnson’s PPR value might be understated in his current ranking.
Behind Herbert, it’s already easy seeing him live up to his RB33 rank in 2024. However, Herbert will be a free agent at the end of the 2024 season. Given the Bears have shown a propensity for not wanting to pay veterans, Herbert will likely move on to greener pastures, and Johnson will be given the reigns as the RB1 in Chicago in 2025. If the team indeed trusts Johnson to lead the charge in the backfield. Volume alone could bump him into the high-end RB2 tier conversation in the future.
There wasn’t much hope for rookie wide receiver Josh Downs this season in Indianapolis. With a freshman head coach in Shane Steichen and a rookie quarterback in Anthony Richardson, it felt like Downs was more of a wait-and-see fantasy prospect.
The feeling of a slow rookie campaign for Downs was amplifying with the loss of Richardson to a shoulder injury in Week 5. However, Downs proved to be a reliable target for veteran journeyman Gardner Minshew. He saw a target in all 17 games this season, logging 98 in total. Overall, Downs was second on the team to veteran Michael Pittman Jr. in targets, receptions (68) and receiving yards (771).
With the expected return of Richardson in 2024 and the potential departure of Pittman in free agency, Downs could step into a primary receiver role in Indianapolis sooner rather than later. It stands to reason that Downs will see a bump into the 120 to 130 target range in 2024, in addition to seeing more red zone looks from Richardson. He could creep into the mid-range WR2 tier in dynasty rankings on expected volume alone as the season approaches.
Luckily, only some people are as bullish on Downs as I am. He is currently ranked as the WR41 and 90th overall in the FantasyPros Dynasty ECR. That makes him a mid-seventh-round steal in your dynasty start-up drafts.
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Nate Polvogt is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Nate, check out his archive and follow him @NatePolvogt.
