This is what we’ve been waiting for, fantasy football enthusiasts. The NFL Draft is under way, and we finally get to see where the rookie prospects are going to launch their professional careers. And NFL Draft landing spots allow us to start to zero in on fantasy football and dynasty rookie draft pick values. We look at wide receiver Keon Coleman and how he will fit with the Buffalo Bills.
Throughout the draft, we’ll take a closer look at fantasy-relevant prospects, giving you an overview of their strengths and weaknesses, and assessing their fantasy value in both redraft and dynasty formats.
Let’s dig in.
- 2024 Dynasty Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Dynasty Rookie Draft Simulator
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Fantasy Football Rookie Draft Outlook
Fitz’s Fantasy Football Outlook
The Buffalo Bills have addressed an urgent need at wide receiver, selecting Florida State’s Keon Coleman at the top of the second round.
A king-sized receiver with a knack for making acrobatic catches, Coleman uses his 6-3, 213-pound frame well, boxing out defenders, making contested catches and using his big wingspan to haul in balls thrown outside the frame of his body. Coleman has a basketball background — he played for Tom Izzo’s hoops program at Michigan State before transferring to FSU — and it shows. Coleman is an above-the-rim football player. He has terrific ball skills and vise-grip hands.
Keon Coleman had 50 catches for 658 yards and 11 touchdowns last year. He had big games against LSU and Clemson early in the season, but his production tailed off sharply later in the season when he was playing through nagging injuries and the Seminoles were playing without injured QB Jordan Travis.
Coleman’s 2022 numbers at Michigan State were good but not great: 58 catches for 798 yards and seven touchdowns. It should be noted, however, that Coleman outproduced Spartan teammate and future Packer Jayden Reed that season, even though Reed was a senior and Coleman was a sophomore.
One of the younger receivers in the draft, Coleman will turn 21 on May 17. His youth suggests he still has ample room for improvement.
Although Coleman is a decent route-runner, he doesn’t consistently get separation from defenders. He’s clocked a sluggish 4.61 at the combine, although he did reach a top speed of over 20 mph while running the gauntlet at the combine — the fastest of any receiver who ran that drill.
Buffalo desperately needed help at wide receiver. They let Gabe Davis walk in free agency and traded Stefon Diggs to the Texans. With Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel at the top of the Bills’ WR depth chart, Coleman should have no trouble getting immediate playing time, and he’ll get to work with one of the best quarterbacks in the league in Josh Allen. Bottom line: This is a terrific landing spot for Coleman.
It will be interesting to see whether the Bills use Keon Coleman primarily as an outside X receiver or as a big slot receiver. Coleman certainly has the size to be an X, but the slot may be his true calling.
I’m above consensus on Coleman in dynasty, ranking him WR6 among rookies and WR31 overall. I expect Coleman to be taken in the back half of the first round in 1QB dynasty rookie drafts and in the early second round in superflex rookie drafts — though he could conceivably sneak into the first round of superflex drafts considering how good the landing spot is.
Keon Coleman’s predraft FantasyPros Expert Consensus ranking was WR64 in half-point PPR formats, and he had a predraft Underdog best-ball ADP of WR53. I have Coleman ranked WR51 for redraft.
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Thor’s NFL Draft Profile & Player Comp
Keon Coleman | Florida State
6032/213 | RAS: 8.19
Comp: Courtland Sutton
Coleman is an eye-of-the-beholder evaluation. In every aspect, you can see his projection in diametrically opposite ways.
Was Keon Coleman productive?
Nope!: He never had an 800-yard season, and he left college with fewer than 1,500 career receiving yards. In 2023, while undefeated FSU was in the heart of chasing a CFP bid, Coleman’s picture was on a milk carton. He was a total non-factor.
Yep!: As a 19-year-old sophomore at Michigan State, Coleman had a 29% dominator rating. That year, he had more catches, more yards, and more TDs than second-rounder-to-be Jayden Reed, who was the veteran of that team. Last year, at FSU, in games where both Coleman and QB Jordan Travis were healthy, those were the games where Coleman looked like a star. Coleman lit up LSU (9-122-3) and Clemson (5-86-2) and ended up averaging 5.5 catches for 77 yards and 1.3 TD per game in seven contests between September-October (when you omit the Boston College game played in 30+ mph wind gusts). Things went south in November, first because of an injury that cost Coleman one game and had him playing less than 100 percent in multiple others. QB Jordan Travis’ subsequent season-ending injury made matters all the worse – FSU’s backup quarterbacks were ghastly. Coleman ended up having only eight catches over three November games. In sum, of Coleman’s 87 targets in 2023, only 55 were charted as “catchable.” Coleman caught 50-of-55, with 11 going for a TD and 28 others turning into first downs.
Is Keon Coleman athletic?
Nope!: Are you kidding? His 4.61 forty was the second-slowest of the WR group, and it came with terrible splits. That’s problematic for a guy who isn’t crisp changing directions. Coleman didn’t create separation in college and won’t at the next level. Don’t believe me? Perhaps you’ll believe last season’s 0-percentile separation rate. That’s not a typo!
Yep!: How are you going to mention the 4.61 forty without mentioning that Coleman had the fastest gauntlet time of any receiver in Indianapolis on the same day? He touched over 20 mph on the GPS while securing every catch – the only WR who could claim that. Coleman’s vertical and broad jumps were each at least 88th percentile. In the open field, hurdles defenders who try to chop out his legs and keep trucking. Lastly, let me get this straight – you’re trying to argue that a dual-sport star who played basketball for Tom Izzo at Michigan State a few years ago is… a bad athlete? Are you mad?!
Is Keon Coleman ready for the NFL?
Nope!: Far from it. He’s a contested-catch guy who can’t separate from ACC corners who only spent three years on campus. He was never going to separate in the NFL anyway, but he’s not refined enough in the other areas of his game to trust against NFL competition. He is setting himself up for failure.
Yep!: Coleman is already experienced at beating the press. And why do you keep glossing over his ball skills? They are utterly superb – you see the rebounder he was in his past life all over his tape. He’s big, and he plays bigger – a box-out artist with hops and vice-grip hands. He positions well with the rock descending and attacks it in the air. His jump-ball ability in the NFL could be exceptional.
Where do I stand?
Coleman has understandably been one of this class’ most polarizing prospects. At our company’s annual retreat a few months ago, I moderated intense friendly debates between Pat Fitzmaurice (pro-Keon camp) and Derek Brown (Keon-hater club) over the subject. I fall somewhere in-between – over the years, I’ve seen this kind of guy become an NFL difference-maker, and I’ve seen him bust.
This prospect type goes in Round 2 of every process. There are myriad examples of successes that Coleman closely resembles (Courtland Sutton and Tee Higgins being two). There are also plenty of busts you could comp him to (like JJ Arcega-Whiteside, or former first-rounder Kevin White). At the end of the day, if I need a starting receiver, and I’m on the clock in Round 2, and sure things are already off the board – I’m happily rolling the dice.
Check out more NFL Draft profiles and player comps from Thor in our 2024 NFL Draft Guide
Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings
Our analysts provide their latest rookie draft rankings below. And also check out our expert consensus dynasty rookie draft rankings!
More Dynasty Rookie Draft Advice
- DBro’s Dynasty Rookie Draft Primers
- DBro’s Top 50 Rankings & Player Notes
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