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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Buy High & Sell Low (Week 6)

Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice: Buy High & Sell Low (Week 6)

Each week during the season, I take a deep dive into certain players who are worth the hype to buy and others whom you should probably cut your losses with and sell. It’s important to remember that “buy high” and “sell low” do not mean “buy or sell these players at all costs.” However, to buy or sell when their value is relatively high or low. The following players have stood out in one way or another.

Buy High, Sell Low (2024 Fantasy Baseball)

Buy High: CJ Abrams (SS – WAS)

CJ Abrams’ first full year in Washington was impressive, batting .245 with 18 homers, 28 doubles and 47 steals in 151 games. He has continued his great play through the first month of 2024. Through 24 games, he’s compiled a .296 average, six home runs, five doubles, four triples, 19 runs, 15 runs batted in and five steals. His expected stats are all in the 94th percentile or better with his xBA topping out at .332. He’s never hit the ball extremely hard but his low K rate and speed help him capitalize on his opportunities. He is transforming into a five-category stud and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him in the first two rounds of drafts next spring.

Buy High: Aaron Nola (SP – PHI)

Aaron Nola has notoriously been alternating between great and decent-to-bad seasons since 2018. Every odd-numbered year, he has been disappointing; every even-numbered year, he’s been what we expect. Well, it’s 2024, so I guess it’s time to buy back in. His season, so far, is a tale of two different pitchers. In his first three starts, he went 2-1 in 16 innings with eight earned runs, eight walks and only 10 strikeouts. Since then, Nola is 2-0 in 23.1 innings with six earned runs, and most importantly, a 26:3 K:BB ratio. He has gone at least seven innings in each of those starts. Home runs given up seem to be Nola’s biggest problem. In each of the last three odd-numbered seasons, he has allowed 26+ home runs. He has already allowed seven in six starts and one in each of his last three impressive performances. If he can keep the home runs in check, Nola should have a productive bounce-back season.

Sell Low: Alex Bregman (3B – HOU)

Alex Bregman has started 2024 ice-cold, batting .216 with zero home runs, four runs, seven runs batted in and one steal. His plate discipline is still impeccable with a 10:13 BB:K ratio but the counting stats are nonexistent. When healthy, he has generally been a lock for 20+ homers and 180+ runs plus RBI but there are reasons to be concerned in the early going. He has been chasing pitches out of the zone at his worst rate since his rookie season. He has raised his groundball rate by 9% over last year and has not pulled the ball as much as we would like. Like teammate Jose Altuve, Bregman can take advantage of his lower exit velocities by pulling the ball more. However, he has done that much less in the last two seasons.

Sell Low: Nolan Jones (OF – COL)

Nolan Jones has struggled mightily in the first month of the season. He is batting .170 with one home run, 11 runs, seven runs batted in, two steals and a scary 9:36 BB:K ratio. He broke out last year with a 20/20 season in only 367 at-bats and we completely looked past his flaws. While he did have a .297 average, his xBA was .249, which made him the second-highest overachiever by that metric. His near 30% K rate was in the bottom 13th percentile of the league. This year his K rate is up to 35.6% ranking him 11th-worst. He’s still fast (82nd percentile sprint speed) and gets to play home games in Coors Field, but there’s not much else to be optimistic about.

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