Saturday’s slate was full of incredible action, and we’re back at it again here. We have all 30 teams taking the field, but a handful don’t make the cut because of some strange start times. We still have over 20 teams to dissect, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. CLE
Not many people will use Ober after a shelling in his debut, but we’re willing to go back to him. The Twins righty allowed three runs or fewer in all but four starts last year, providing a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. We expect him to return to that consistency stud, with this Cleveland matchup starting that positive regression. In two starts against the Guardians last year, Ober threw 13 scoreless innings!
Saturday’s slate was full of incredible action, and we’re back at it again here. We have all 30 teams taking the field, but a handful don’t make the cut because of some strange start times. We still have over 20 teams to dissect, so let’s go ahead and get into it!
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Sunday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Bailey Ober (MIN) vs. CLE
Not many people will use Ober after a shelling in his debut, but we’re willing to go back to him. The Twins righty allowed three runs or fewer in all but four starts last year, providing a 3.43 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. We expect him to return to that consistency stud, with this Cleveland matchup starting that positive regression. In two starts against the Guardians last year, Ober threw 13 scoreless innings!
Garrett Crochet (CWS) at KC
There are always a few pitchers who come out of nowhere to become an ace, and Crochet is looking like one of them. The ChiSox southpaw has allowed just one run in each of his first two starts, striking out eight batters in both. The most recent was against an amazing Atlanta lineup, but Kansas City is far from that. The Royals ranked 23rd in runs scored and 25th in wOBA last season.
Tanner Houck (BOS) at LAA
We might have pitchers against the Angels every day. This lineup struggled with Shohei Ohtani last year, but they’re one of the worst lineups without him. That’s scary with the way Houck has started the season, picking up 58 FanDuel points in his debut. Striking out 10 batters across six scoreless innings will do that, and it’s hard to believe he remains so affordable.
Jack Flaherty (DET) vs. OAK
It could be a nightmarish season for Oakland. They were 29th or 30th in runs scored, OBP, OPS, wOBA, and XWOBA last season, but it might be even worse this year. That would put any pitcher in play against them, but Flaherty looks revived in Detroit. The righty had some sparkling spring training numbers and scored 40 FD points in his debut with Detroit.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Bronx Bombers have one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, with Aaron Judge and Juan Soto getting on base nearly half the time. They’re also even more dangerous in Yankee Stadium, which is scary for a youngster who was destroyed in his first start. Francis allowed 10 hits and seven runs in his first start of the season. That’s why NY is projected to score over five runs!
Atlanta will be in this section all season, possessing the best lineup in baseball. They were first in nearly every offensive metric last year and should be there again this season. We’d use the at-home against anyone, but an inexperienced pitcher like Nelson makes them one of the best options on the board. Nelson only made three starts at this level across four years, totaling a 4.27 ERA and 1.31 WHIP.
Core Studs
- Acuna is an easy option on every slate. The NL MVP is one of the only guys with the potential to have 40 homers and 80 steals, leading the league in fantasy points last year. We don’t want to fade that potential against a guy like Nelson because Atlanta is one of the highest-projected offenses on this slate.
- Soto got off to a sensational start with the Yankees, and we always want to use him when he faces weak right-handers. We already discussed the inexperienced Bowden, with NY projected to score five runs. Soto should be a significant part of that, totaling a .427 OBP and .961 OPS against right-handers over the last three years.
- Cruz just had a game-winning hit on Saturday, and that special moment could get this shortstop rolling. His advanced metrics are better than almost anyone in the sport, and he’s paired it with 14 DK points per game across his last three fixtures. Nearly all of his damage has also come against righties, registering a 1.169 OPS against them so far this year.
- I was shocked to see how cheap Alonso is on FanDuel. The slugger has the most home runs in baseball over the last six years, posting a .527 career SLG. That power potential makes him enticing against a lefty, especially in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball.
Value Plays/Punts
Many of these Detroit bats get overlooked, but Carpenter is a sneaky power source in the heart of their lineup. What’s made him so good are his sensational splits, providing a .846 OPS against right-handers over the last three years. This is far from a scary righty, with Joe Boyle allowing eight runs in his debut.
We had Mountcastle in here yesterday against a lefty, and we will likely recommend him every night in those circumstances. The slugging first baseman has a .875 OPS through the opening week, totaling a 1.052 OPS against southpaws last season. We can’t overlook that against Marco Gonzales, who had a 5.22 ERA and 1.46 WHIP last season.
Conforto has always been a talented hitter, but when he’s been healthy, he’s off to another torrid start. The former Met has a 1.294 OPS through his first eight games, doing serious damage in the heart of this San Fran lineup. Almost all of that has been against righties, which is remarkable since he faces one who allowed 10 baserunners across four innings in his debut.
Yoshi has been a great signing by the Sox, and he’ll have to step up with Trevor Story, who is injured. The Japanese outfielder flirted with a .800 OPS in his rookie season, posting even better splits against right-handers. What we really love is the opposition, with Chase Silseth surrendering four runs across three innings in his first start of the year.
Sunday’s Top 3 Underdog Fantasy and PrizePicks Player Props
Luis Gil: 7.5 Strikeouts – Lower
This is a lofty projection against a talented Toronto lineup. There’s no doubt that the Blue Jays are struggling, but it’ll be tough for Gil to surpass seven strikeouts. He only reached 4.2 innings in his debut, which was only his second appearance over the last three years! The strikeout stuff is there, but this number is too high since Toronto is projected to score nearly five runs.
Sean Manaea: 6.5 Strikeouts – Lower
Manaea was magnificent in his debut, but this line is way too high. He’s posted a 4.73 ERA over the last two years and has to pitch in one of the toughest ballparks in this spot. It’s not like he was a strikeout machine before either, surpassing 6.5 strikeouts only 10 times over the last three years.
We like either of these, and they’re both about even-money. We already discussed how good Carpenter has been with the platoon advantage in his favor and this is a great chance to take care of both of these with a dinger.
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Joel Bartilotta is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @Bartilottajoel.
