There is way too much positivity in fantasy baseball analysis. It sickens me.
Everyone is going to bounce back, everyone is unlucky and everyone who is doing poorly will have “positive regression” (Don’t get me started on “positive regression”. Regression by definition is moving towards the statistical mean, putting the word ‘positive’ in front is redundant if the player is underperforming).
I’ll be the anti-positivity guy today. I’m already halfway there arguing over the semantics of the word regression. So to get myself really worked up, I turned on replays of the Dbacks losing the World Series and wrote out what is bugging me about fantasy baseball so far:
There is way too much positivity in fantasy baseball analysis. It sickens me.
Everyone is going to bounce back, everyone is unlucky and everyone who is doing poorly will have “positive regression” (Don’t get me started on “positive regression”. Regression by definition is moving towards the statistical mean, putting the word ‘positive’ in front is redundant if the player is underperforming).
I’ll be the anti-positivity guy today. I’m already halfway there arguing over the semantics of the word regression. So to get myself really worked up, I turned on replays of the Dbacks losing the World Series and wrote out what is bugging me about fantasy baseball so far:
You may not like it, but this is what a prototypical lead-off hitter looks like:
- 33% K Rate (ninth-worst in baseball)
- .320 OBA (92nd in MLB)
- 34.2% Swing and Miss Percentage (eighth-worst in baseball)
- 13.6 BB% (16th in MLB, solid)
- Two stolen bases in three attempts
- Leading the league with 57 strikeouts
I am obviously being sarcastic about him being a prototypical lead-off hitter. Studies have shown that if a lead-off hitter gets on base, a team has a 56% chance of scoring a run. If they do not, the percentage drops to 21%.
The only reasonable argument I have heard for Schwarber batting lead-off is “taking pitches” and drawing walks despite his abhorrent strikeout numbers. However according to the Society of American Baseball Research (I submitted my resume to them just now), the difference between a lead-off walk and a lead-off single scoring is “virtually indistinguishable“, which only makes sense.
And anyway, if the argument was true about strikeouts not mattering for leadoff hitters, the Twins would have someone striking out 36% of the time and in the bottom 1% of expected batting average as their lead-off hitter and that would be ridiculous.
Oh, wait.
A .229 BABIP but leading the league with the most barreled balls given up? If he keeps pitching like this, his BABIP is going to get higher than Jon Singleton. I see some regression coming from Dunning as the season progresses.
His Barrel Rate is 24.8%. The next highest is 19.8%. Basically, he barrels a ball up once a game. I am annoyed I did not draft him everywhere I could in fantasy leagues. I blame everyone but myself.
This one pains me since I’ll be a Goldy fan for life. However, in 2024, I am also a fan of when the team I am playing has Goldy.
- .255 OBA
- 4.7% barrel rate (abysmal)
- 10.1% walk rate
- 44.7% swing and miss rate
These are not Goldy numbers. I have no interest in this Cardinals team or their offense right now.
He’s one of three players with a WOBA > .400 alongside Hunter Brown and Patrick Corbin, which is not good company to be in.
Or is it?
Hunter Brown is No. 1 in baseball with a 2.2% barrel rate and is last in baseball with a .440 WOBA. That’s wild, right?
- 21% K rate
- 13.1% walk rate
Nothing amazing, but these numbers do not support a .440 WOBA.
Judge has 10 double plays in 170 at-bats. No one else has more than seven. Can someone who watches the Yankees tell me, is it bad luck or is he not running these out?
It’s not ideal when a team’s 3-hole hitter has by far the most GIDP in baseball but also is top 10 in strikeouts.
Both Barrel Rate and Hard Hit % are nothing to write home about. If I was an Aaron Judge owner, I’d be hoping for a hot stretch and then selling. Or maybe he’ll make a run to break the AL home run record again 100% legitimately and this is just a cold stretch.
He’s faced 137 batters with 16 strikeouts. This stat alone might explain his 1.84 WHIP in 2024. Has he not faced the Mariners or Javier Baez yet? Those two alone should bulk up those strikeout numbers.
Corbin has had second base stolen on him 12 times, no other pitcher has more than eight. Is it a lack of caring? Indifference? It can’t be the catcher — no other Orioles starter is above two. Is it a belief it does not matter if they steal because he feels confident he can dominate the batter? I call this belief the “Anti-Houser.”
Jones has thrown the third-most “meatballs” of any pitcher (pitches right down the middle) but also is No. 1 in baseball in swing and miss percentage. These are the kind of underlying numbers that can predict someone is unhittable.
Well, see you all in a few days, I’m sure I will be worked up about something new by then.
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