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Fantasy Football Regression Candidates: De’Von Achane, Rashee Rice, Tank Dell

It might not always be fun to hear, but regression is something we have to be aware of in fantasy football. 2023 brought us some excellent rookie performances but if we apply a truthful look, which of them are primed for regression in their second-years? Here are a few second-year players prime for fantasy football regression in their sophomore season.

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Fantasy Football Regression Candidates

Here are a few fantasy football players who could take a step back in year two.

De’Von Achane (RB – MIA)

Regression might not be a bad thing for De’Von Achane if he can find his way to a more consistent role in 2024. Achane’s rookie season was filled with incredible highs like the 51.3-point game against the Broncos, but also four games outside the top 28 running backs and seven missed through injuries.

The knock on Achane coming out of college was that his 5-foot-9, 188-pound frame was too slight to hold up in the NFL. After playing over 30% of the snaps in just eight games, it’s hard to argue that isn’t true. With Raheem Mostert signing an extension and Jaylen Wright acquired via trading up in the draft, it’s clear the Dolphins don’t view Achane as a three-down back. However, if he can stay healthy and find a consistent role in this explosive offense it might not matter if he regresses from the absurd 7.8 yards per attempt he boasted in 2023.

Rashee Rice (WR – KC)

All Rashee Rice had to do this offseason was stay out of trouble and be injury-free. He looked like an almost lock to be a top-36 pick in fantasy drafts this year. So far Rice has managed to stay injury-free, but that’s about it after being caught speeding and allegedly getting into an altercation with a photographer that is currently being investigated by the police. The thesis around Rice being a top-36 pick would have talked about how Travis Kelce is 34 years old and Rice averaged 17.0 PPR points per game from Week 11 onwards in 2023.

All of that remains true, but with reports swirling that the Chiefs are bracing for a suspension as lengthy as eight games, and with Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy added to the mix, Rice might find himself struggling to make such an impact as he did over the second half of last season. Rice still profiles as the most likely slot receiver on this offense. Volume and trust can be king in fantasy football but it could be pragmatic to take a wait-and-see approach on how things play out for Rashee Rice this offseason.

Tank Dell (WR – HOU)

Nathaniel ‘Tank’ Dell burst onto the scene in 2023 with six games over 17 PPR points, including four top-12 weekly finishes, before sadly fracturing his fibula while blocking on a run play. The hope and expectation was that Dell could recover and return to being a dominant player for the Texans and fantasy teams in 2024, but the Texans seem to be building with depth in mind.

Stefon Diggs was acquired from the Buffalo Bills. Joe Mixon was brought in from the Bengals and rewarded with a new contract. The Texans seem intent on pushing the chips in while CJ Stroud is on his rookie contract. It’s the right move to make, but with established veterans competing for targets, it will be substantially harder for Dell to earn double-digit targets in games, something he did in four games of his best five games last year. The future is bright for Dell, but 2024 might be a little less flashy than 2023 was.

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