Welcome back to this weekly breakdown of fantasy football matchups to target and avoid at each position. We are getting into fantasy crunch time, as there are only a few weeks left before most fantasy football leagues enter the playoffs.
Welcome back to this weekly breakdown of fantasy football matchups to target and avoid at each position. We are getting into fantasy crunch time, as there are only a few weeks left before most fantasy football leagues enter the playoffs.
The Ravens might be the best team in the NFL, but their secondary is very bad. They rank second in fantasy points per game given up to quarterbacks (22.7), but they allow — by far — the most passing yards at a whopping 314 yards per game. They are one of two teams to give up over two passing touchdowns per game.
Meanwhile, Russell Wilson has been excellent since taking over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback. He has established a thriving deep ball connection with George Pickens, and his 18.9 points per game rank him as the QB7 for the season. The Steelers prefer to run the ball with the highest rush rate above expectation in the league at 6.9%, but they will have to let Wilson cook to keep up with Lamar Jackson. Available on the waiver wire in 70% of leagues, Wilson is an excellent streaming quarterback option for Week 11.
Very little is going right for the Bears this season, but one thing they do have going for them is their pass defense. They have allowed just 11.3 points per game to opposing quarterbacks, easily the lowest mark in the league. That number isn’t just a product of their bad offense, either, as they give up the lowest expected points added (EPA) per dropback in the league at -0.13.
Jordan Love has been solid this year, but he is very much a borderline QB1. A tough matchup on the road in Chicago this week is enough to push him over that border; I would look for another option in Week 11 if you have been relying on Love as your QB1.
Things haven’t been pretty for Nick Chubb since his return in Week 7. With Jerome Ford healthy, Chubb has been relegated to an early-down-only role, playing just 36% of the Browns’ snaps in a negative game script in Week 9. In previous years, Chubb has made up for his lack of receiving-game involvement with truly elite efficiency, but he has performed as a well below-average rusher so far in 2024.
However, if there were ever a week for Chubb to have a vintage performance, it may be this one. The Saints are tied for third in points per game given up to the running back position (24.3), but that doesn’t tell the whole story. They are allowing the most yards per carry to opposing backs as well (5.17) and they rank second in touchdowns allowed per game. In a matchup where the Browns opened as two-point favorites, I like Chubb’s chances to rack up a ton of carries, score a touchdown or two and provide useable fantasy production.
It can’t be overstated how tough of a matchup the Chiefs are for opposing running backs. They allow just 12 points per game to the position, while no other team is below even 14. Thanks to having Patrick Mahomes on the other side, they allow the fewest carries per game at just 16.6, and they allow the fewest yards per carry at 3.17. For those not doing the math at home, that means Kansas City allows just 52.6 yards per game to opposing backs.
The Chiefs haven’t allowed a single individual running back to crack 13 half-PPR points. Only three backs (Derrick Henry, Bijan Robinson, Rachaad White) have even reached double digits against them… and all three of them relied on a rushing score to get there. James Cook has performed like a borderline RB1 so far this season, so he isn’t a must-bench. But if you have other options, I would strongly consider leaving him out of your lineup this week.
Just a few weeks ago, Brian Thomas Jr. wouldn’t have qualified as a “good matchup” candidate because he was a must-start regardless. Now, coming off back-to-back weeks under 4.0 fantasy points and staring down the barrel of Mac Jones as his quarterback for the foreseeable future, the rookie is much less of a sure thing. However, he is worth starting this week against the Lions.
Detroit’s defense has given up the fourth-most points per game to opposing receivers this season. That number could be even higher, too, as they give up the most receptions per game and are 0.1 yards behind Baltimore for giving up the most yards per game. The only thing keeping Detroit from leading the league in points allowed to wide receivers is a low touchdown rate, but that’s the least sticky stat of the bunch. Even with Jones under center, Thomas Jr. is worth considering for fantasy lineups this week.
Overall, the Bears rank as the second-worst fantasy matchup for opposing receivers, giving up just 20.7 points per game. However, that undersells how bad of a matchup they are for Jayden Reed in particular. The Bears give up by far the fewest amount of points per game to players lined up in the slot — 5.2 (no other team is below 6.1).
That’s very bad news for Reed, who runs nearly 80% of his routes out of the slot. The sophomore wideout has already been inconsistent this season because he only plays in 11 personnel. All signs point to this being another down week for him.
As of right now, it’s unclear whether Dalton Kincaid, who suffered a knee injury on Sunday, will be ready in time for this marquee matchup between AFC powerhouses. If he’s out, Dawson Knox should take over as the Bills’ lead tight end. Regardless of who it is, Buffalo’s No. 1 TE is in for a juicy matchup with Kansas City’s defense.
The Chiefs rank second in terms of fantasy points given up to tight ends, but they are first by a mile in yardage allowed per game (78) — over 10 yards clear of the second-worst team. For those of you in tight end-premium formats, the Chiefs also allow the most receptions per game to opposing tight ends; the only place where they don’t rank as the worst defense against tight ends is touchdown scoring. If Kincaid is healthy, he is a locked-in TE1 in this matchup. If he’s out, Knox becomes a top-tier streaming option.
Zach Ertz has become something of a weekly staple in this article, as he is the definition of a matchup-dependent streaming tight end. The veteran is consistently involved in the Commanders’ offense, actually ranking eighth among tight ends in total targets. But he isn’t the kind of talent to produce regardless of matchup, and Washington isn’t exactly going out of their way to get the ball in his hands.
Meanwhile, the Eagles have shut down opposing tight ends, allowing just 5.5 points per game to the position. Unless he finds an extra gear for a “revenge” game against his former team, Ertz is best avoided this week.
