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NBA DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: Saturday (11/16)

NBA DFS Picks & Lineup Advice: Saturday (11/16)

While today’s main NBA DFS slate may appear small with only four games, don’t let that fool you. Three of those games have spreads of 9.5 points or more, creating a unique dynamic with potential for some unexpected value plays. Blowouts can lead to rested starters and increased minutes for bench players, so identifying those opportunities will be crucial.

This primer will guide you through this compact yet intriguing slate, highlighting the top plays at each position, uncovering potential sleepers who could benefit from lopsided scores and analyzing the key matchups to target. Let’s dive in and explore the strategies that will give you an edge on this distinctive Saturday slate.

View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Luka Doncic (PG – DAL)

  • DraftKings: $11,300
  • FanDuel: $11,400

Luka Doncic has been a model of consistency and offensive firepower, scoring at least 30 points in three of his last four games and delivering at least 51 DraftKings points in his previous seven contests. He provides a rock-solid floor with his ability to fill the stat sheet with points, rebounds and assists.

Tonight, he faces the San Antonio Spurs, a team playing on zero days rest and that ranks 21st in defensive efficiency this month. This tired Spurs defense should provide Doncic with ample opportunities to exploit mismatches and rack up fantasy points.

Victor Wembanyama (C – SAS)

  • DraftKings: $10,600
  • FanDuel: $11,000

Victor Wembanyama is on an absolute tear, showcasing his dominance and living up to the hype. He’s racked up more than 59 DraftKings points in four consecutive games, demonstrating his ability to fill the stat sheet with points, rebounds, assists and blocks.

Tonight’s matchup against the Dallas Mavericks presents another opportunity for Wembanyama to shine. The Mavericks play at a fast pace, ranking ninth in the league this month. This up-tempo style should force the Spurs to play quicker, leading to more possessions and increased opportunities for Wembanyama to contribute.

NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Payton Pritchard (PG – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $4,900
  • FanDuel: $5,400

Jrue Holiday is dealing with a knee injury. With the Boston Celtics being 16.5-point favorites, it wouldn’t be surprising to see the Celtics exercise caution and prioritize his long-term health. This scenario would open up valuable minutes for Payton Pritchard, who has proven he can deliver when given the opportunity.

Pritchard played 36 minutes on Wednesday and made the most of his extended run. He shot an efficient 8-of-13 from the field, racking up 23 points, eight assists and six rebounds. This impressive performance showcased his ability to contribute across multiple categories and thrive in a larger role. Regardless of Holiday’s status, Pritchard is in play, considering his price and matchup.

John Collins (PF, C – UTA)

  • DraftKings: $6,800
  • FanDuel: $6,800

John Collins has stepped up in a major way for the Utah Jazz with Walker Kessler sidelined. Over the last two games, Collins has seen 33+ minutes and delivered impressive performances, averaging 28.5 points, 9.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists. He’s showcasing his offensive versatility and ability to contribute across multiple categories, making him a valuable fantasy asset.

Tonight, Collins faces the Sacramento Kings, who are playing on zero days rest. This could lead to fatigue and defensive lapses for the Kings, creating a favorable matchup for Collins. Expect him to continue his aggressive play and attack the basket, looking to capitalize on this opportunity.

Trey Murphy (SF, PF – NOR)

  • DraftKings: $5,600
  • FanDuel: $5,600

Trey Murphy looked sharp in his third game back from a hamstring injury, logging 30 minutes and delivering a solid 17 points, eight rebounds and three assists. This performance is a promising sign for the New Orleans Pelicans, who are relying on Murphy to provide a scoring punch and contribute across the board. With the team still shorthanded, expect Murphy to continue seeing significant minutes and opportunities.

Tonight, the Pelicans face the Los Angeles Lakers, who have struggled defensively this month, ranking 26th in defensive rating. This vulnerability bodes well for Murphy, who should be able to find open looks and attack the basket.

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NBA DFS GPP Targets

Brandon Ingram (PG, SG, SF – NOR)

  • DraftKings: $9,100
  • FanDuel: $8,200

Brandon Ingram has been the offensive engine for the New Orleans Pelicans, especially with the team battling multiple injuries. He’s commanded a 30% or higher usage rate in five straight games, demonstrating his importance to their offense.

Ingram is a dynamic scorer with the ability to create his own shot and get to the free-throw line. While he’s had a couple of inefficient shooting nights recently, he continues to put up a high volume of shots and contributes in other areas with rebounds and assists.

Tonight, Ingram faces the Los Angeles Lakers, who are playing on zero days rest. This could lead to fatigue and defensive lapses, creating a favorable matchup for the Pelicans’ star.

Kevin Huerter (SG, SF – SAC)

  • DraftKings: $5,500
  • FanDuel: $5,100

Kevin Huerter’s season might not have started with the fireworks many expected, but the sharpshooter has shown flashes of his potential recently. In two of his last four games, he’s found his rhythm, scoring at least 17 points and knocking down a couple of threes in each. This suggests Huerter is starting to find his groove and regain the form that made him a valuable offensive weapon.

Tonight’s matchup against the Utah Jazz presents a prime opportunity for Huerter to continue his upward trend. The Jazz have struggled defensively this season, allowing opponents to shoot 47.8% from the field (25th in the NBA) and 36.6% from three-point range (23rd in the NBA). This vulnerability should give Huerter plenty of open looks and a chance to heat up from deep.

Collin Sexton (PG, SG – UTA)

  • DraftKings: $5,800
  • FanDuel: $5,900

Collin Sexton is thriving with increased opportunities for the Utah Jazz. After averaging just 23.2 minutes per game in October, he’s seen his playing time jump to 29.7 minutes in November. This expanded role has allowed Sexton to showcase his dynamic scoring ability and playmaking skills.

He’s a fearless attacker with a knack for getting to the rim and finishing through contact. Sexton is also a capable passer, able to create opportunities for his teammates when defenses collapse on his drives.

This increased role has translated to impressive production, with Sexton averaging 17.0 points, 4.0 assists and 3.2 rebounds per game in November. Tonight, he faces the Sacramento Kings, a team that is great but has shown some defensive vulnerabilities this season.

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NBA DFS Value Plays

Dalton Knecht (SG, SF – LAL)

  • DraftKings: $4,100
  • FanDuel: $4,100

Dalton Knecht has stepped up admirably for the Los Angeles Lakers with Rui Hachimura sidelined. If Hachimura remains out tonight, Knecht should be back in the starting lineup, providing an excellent opportunity for production. He’s a versatile player with a smooth shooting stroke and a knack for attacking the basket. In his last two games, he’s averaged an impressive 16.5 points, showcasing his scoring ability.

The Lakers face the New Orleans Pelicans tonight. It’s crucial to keep an eye on the injury report. If other key players are ruled out for the Lakers, Knecht’s role and usage could increase significantly. This would make him an even more appealing option, especially against a Pelicans team that has had its defensive struggles.

Sam Hauser (SF, PF – BOS) 

  • DraftKings: $3,600
  • FanDuel: $4,200

Sam Hauser could be in line for increased minutes tonight with the Boston Celtics entering this matchup as massive 16.5-point favorites. In games with such a large spread, coaches often opt to rest their starters or limit their minutes in the second half, especially if they have a comfortable lead. This scenario would open up more playing time for bench players like Hauser, who has proven he can contribute when given the opportunity.

Hauser has been a reliable presence for the Celtics, consistently making the most of his minutes. He’s a sharpshooter with a quick release and a knack for finding open space. Hauser has also shown a willingness to crash the boards and contribute defensively. This well-rounded skillset has translated to solid fantasy production, with Hauser recording at least 13 DraftKings points in eight out of his 10 games this season. This consistency makes him a valuable punt option, especially if he sees increased minutes in this potentially lopsided matchup.

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