Oh, Baby! I can’t believe it is already here, Thanksgiving.
Football, family, and food. Tons of food. Oh, glorious food. (Can you tell that I’m hungry as I write this?) Since I’m on the subject of food. I have to address something. Right here. Right now. I’m SICK & TIRED of all of the turkey slander I have seen this week on my timeline. Hating turkey seems to be popular right now. Well, I won’t stand for it. Turkey prepared well is awesome. I’m sorry if your significant other, family, in-laws, etc., can’t cook a turkey properly. Truly. I apologize for their missteps.
Cooking this holiday bird doesn’t have to be difficult, though.
- Purchase the Char-Broil Big Easy oil-less fryer
- Inject your bird with a combination of butter and jalapeno juice or Tony Chachere’s creole-style butter marinade. You can also separate the skin from the meat and slide in a few slices of butter. It’s not a must, but it’s worth it.
- Rub down the outside of the bird with your favorite combo of seasonings. My favorites are Kinders Buttery Poultry Blend or Weber’s Beer Can Chicken seasoning.
- Follow the directions for lighting your oil-less fryer.
- Insert your temperature probe & drop in the bird.
- When it reaches an internal temperature of 165 degrees throughout, you’re good.
You’re welcome.
Before we dive into all of these matchups for fantasy football for Week 13, I also have to say, thank you. Thanksgiving is about taking a second to realize what we are thankful for. Yes, I could rattle off a laundry list of friends, family, etc., that I don’t know what I’d do without, but I want to thank you. Yes, you. Everyone that has ever read, supported or listened to any of my work. Changing careers a few years ago from being a full-time registered nurse to a writer was something that I never imagined possible. It’s been a wild ride, and I still feel like I’m just getting started. I still have “pinch me” moments with this job that make me wonder if this is all an elaborate dream that I’m destined to wake from. None of this would be possible if it weren’t for you.
Thank you. I hope everyone has a glorious holiday and all your fantasy football teams win.
Welcome to the Week 13 Primer. Enjoy.
CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN
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Fantasy Football Primer: Week 13
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Pace and playcalling notes
- Since Week 9, Las Vegas has ranked 13th in neutral pace and second in neutral passing rate. Across their last four games, the Chiefs have been 19th in neutral pace with the fourth-highest neutral passing rate.
Raiders Players & Weekly Rankings
Aidan O’Connell | QB | QB2 |
Ameer Abdullah | RB | RB2/3 |
Alexander Mattison | RB | Out |
Zamir White | RB | Out |
Jakobi Meyers | WR | WR2/3 |
Tre Tucker | WR | WR5 |
Brock Bowers | TE | TE1 |
Michael Mayer | TE | TE2 |
Chiefs Players & Weekly Rankings
Patrick Mahomes II | QB | QB1 |
Kareem Hunt | RB | RB2 |
Isiah Pacheco | RB | RB3/4 |
DeAndre Hopkins | WR | WR3/4 |
Xavier Worthy | WR | WR3 |
Justin Watson | WR | WR5 |
JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | WR5 |
Travis Kelce | TE | TE1 |
Must-Start
These are no-brainer MUST starts.
Strong Starts
Here are players that should be in starting consideration for most fantasy teams.
Hunt is the RB16 in fantasy points per game, ranking 21st in snap share, seventh in opportunity share, and sixth in red zone touches. He has averaged 21.5 touches and 89 total yards this season. Hunt should retain the lion’s share of the workload this week, even with Isiah Pacheco returning. I expect we’ll see Pacheco get a handful of touches and snaps this week, as the team will likely ease him back in. This hurts Hunt’s ceiling, but his floor for Week 13 is still high. Among 54 qualifying backs, he ranks 50th in missed tackles forced per attempt and 46th in yards after contact per attempt. The volume has been integral to Hunt’s fantasy value, so I can’t pretend that his value doesn’t take somewhat of a hit this week and moving forward, especially with the Raiders’ run defense improving. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Meyers is the WR20 in fantasy points per game and has been a volume monster without Davante Adams on the team. Since Week 4, he has had a 24.5% target share, a 37% air-yard share, 1.89 YPRR, and a 32.9% first-read share. He averaged 71.2 receiving yards per game during that span, but sadly, he had only seen four red zone targets and scored one receiving touchdown. The last time Meyers faced Kansas City, he finished as the WR20 for the week with six receptions, 52 receiving yards, and a score. The Chiefs have been more vulnerable to perimeter wide receivers recently. Since Week 7, they have allowed the 13th-highest PPR points per target to the position. Meyers is a strong play again this week.
Since the Chiefs acquired DeAndre Hopkins, Worthy’s route share has never dipped below 64.3%. In his five games with Hopkins, Worthy has played the field stretching role for two games, but in three games his role has been fairly consistent (Weeks 8, 11, & 12). In those games, Worthy has had a 10.3 aDOT, a 17.6% target share, 1.71 YPRR, and a 24.6% first-read share. In those games, (one of which was against Las Vegas), Worthy has seen three red zone targets. Worthy is just a middling flex play this week against a secondary that, since Week 7, has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target to perimeter wide receivers.
Fantasy Football Week 13 Flex Plays & Fades
Tread lightly with these players who are questionable starts or players I’m fading this week.
O’Connell will start for Las Vegas this week. This season, he hasn’t finished higher than QB24 in any game. Among 42 qualifying quarterbacks, O’Connell has the fourth-lowest yards per attempt, the seventh-lowest passer rating, and the second-lowest CPOE. Even in Superflex, I wouldn’t be starting O’Connell. He hasn’t had more than 12.1 fantasy points in any game this season. You can get better production from a skill player in your Superflex spot.
Last week, Abdullah operated as Las Vegas’s bell cow with 90% of the snaps, 13 touches, and 65 total yards. He will be the team’s lead back again this week. He generated only 1.88 yards after contact per attempt and 0.79 YPRR, which isn’t great, but if he’s going to see this type of workload weekly, it puts him in the RB2/3 and flex conversation. Volume is king in fantasy, and Abdullah is seeing it. That was true last week, as he finished as the RB9 for the week. Since Week 7, Kansas City has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards per game, the third-lowest explosive run rate, and the 14th-lowest missed tackle rate.
Pacheco will be active this week, but we shouldn’t expect more than a handful of snaps and carries this week. Against what has been an improved Raiders run defense, Pacheco isn’t flex-worthy this week. Since Week 7, Las Vegas has allowed the eighth-fewest rushing yards per game, the eighth-lowest explosive run rate, and the tenth-lowest yards after contact per attempt.
Kansas City has continued to water down Hopkins usage as they are utilizing a full-blown committee behind Xavier Worthy and Travis Kelce. Last week, Hopkins had a 44.7% route share, which ranked sixth on the team as he drew a 16.2% target share and 22.7% first-read share with two end zone targets, 1.67 YPRR (35 receiving yards), and a 23.8% air-yard share. This type of usage is nightmare fuel. When he’s on the field, Hopkins is being targeted at strong rates, but the dwindling number of routes weekly is concerning that floor could drop out any week. This week against a middle-of-the-road secondary that has allowed the 17th-highest PPR points per target since Week 7 against perimeter wide receivers, Hopkins is a volatile flex play.
CHI vs. DET | NYG vs. DAL | MIA vs. GB | LV vs. KC | PIT vs. CIN | LAC vs. ATL | HOU vs. JAC | IND vs. NE | ARI vs. MIN | TEN vs. WAS | SEA vs. NYJ | TB vs. CAR | LAR vs. NO | PHI vs. BAL | SF vs. BUF | CLE vs. DEN