Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable weekend and a wonderful season so far as we get into the nitty-gritty of the NBA season. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping.
That is going to be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have a six-game or four-game slate depending on the site you use. In the end, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $9,000
- FanDuel: $9,200
It won’t come as a surprise to many that the Minnesota Timberwolves are going to be the highest-owned team on the slate with their large rotation against the Washington Wizards. As a friendly reminder, the Wizards are bad at basketball but great for DFS.
They are the fourth-fastest team in the NBA and have taken over as the worst defense in the league. This is a gold mine for opponents. Anthony Edwards is coming off a mediocre game but with a usage rate at 30% in a pace-up spot against this defense, he could cover 60 as he did four games ago. I see 50 points well within his median outcome and project him just under.
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: N/A
Apologies if you are a FanDuel truther but as a quick note if you are, my favorite center on the slate would be Alperen Sengun in the breakneck-paced game against Memphis. But the highest projected scorer on tonight’s slate would be Anthony Davis. Victor Wembanyama is a close second, so the Lakers-Spurs matchup should be fun to watch down low.
Davis has been rocking of late, averaging 54 DraftKings points a night. Game-to-game, he’s covered 59 DraftKings points in four of his last five outings. With a lot of rest, Davis should continue his high-scoring ways, as I’m projecting him for around 55 DraftKings points tonight. He’s consistently been used at a 31% clip. Despite Wembanyama down low, the Spurs have allowed the ninth-most points to opposing centers this season.
- DraftKings: $7,100
- FanDuel: $7,500
This is one of the riskier core plays I’ve had recently, but with a 236 total — the highest total on the slate — I have to get a piece of Houston and Fred VanVleet is my go-to option. He’s playing 38 minutes a night in the last five games and as a 1.01 fantasy points per minute player, it’s clear to see where his projection sits.
VanVleet has shown the capacity for ceiling games by more than just scoring, tallying 12 assists against Washington when recording his double-double. He’s averaging eight threes attempted a night recently. With even more attempts than that he has a high ceiling. Given his price tag, I’m comfortable with the fact they face an elite defense because pure opportunity gives him a high floor.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $5,200
- FanDuel: $6,300
This may be a DraftKings-only option with the $1,100 difference in price tag, but Rudy Gobert may be the highest return on investment among any player tonight. Julius Randle is also a tempting option but given the price difference, Gobert is a much better option to open up some salary without sacrificing much scoring to your lineup.
No team has allowed more fantasy points to opposing centers than the Washington Wizards. With Gobert averaging a double-double a night, that seems like more than the median outcome for the Minnesota big man.
- DraftKings: $5,700
- FanDuel: $6,000
Draymond Green needs to play tonight for this to work but assuming that’s the case, Green is going to be quite highly rostered tonight — 20-30%. He’s averaging nearly 30 DraftKings points a night over his last five games, and I project him for a little bit more tonight.
Given the injuries and roster construction, Green should continue with a usage rate near 20% and see the floor for 30 minutes, giving him a high floor and making him a good cash lineup option.
- DraftKings: $7,300
- FanDuel: $8,000
With guard-forward eligibility against the fastest-paced team in the league in a game with the highest total on the slate, it makes sense why Amen Thompson is expected to garner 25% rostership tonight. He’s averaged 44 DraftKings points in his last three games and has been playing massive minutes.
I fully expect Thompson to clear 5X value. He’s played over 38 minutes a night in four of his last seven games and projects for around 35 minutes tonight. The whole Houston lineup looks great, so Jalen Green is the other ideal option if you want to plug more Rockets into your lineups.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $10,300
- FanDuel: $10,800
It feels like Cade Cunningham is perpetually living in the GPP category as someone with a high ceiling but a high price and a tougher matchup on paper. He’s averaging over 50 DraftKings points a game with excellent efficiency on the court and is coming off a 67 DraftKings point effort.
That’s why I’m so drawn to him at only 5% projected rostership on the slate tonight. Over the last 10 games, the Knicks have been a faster-paced team than Detroit. New York’s defense is decent but nothing Cunningham can’t handle. I’m not saying he’s guaranteed a breakout effort but the chance of that happening is way lower than his rostership, so he makes for a great leverage option tonight.
- DraftKings: $8,900
- FanDuel: $9,100
The Raptors have been an ugly team recently, losing five straight games and 16 of their last 17. Not good. That is exactly why Scottie Barnes is only projected to be rostered in around 3-5% of contests tonight. Simply put, he’s more likely to be in the optimal lineup on this six-game slate, which is why he finds himself as an ideal GPP option.
Barnes needs to get over 50 points to deal some damage, which he did two games ago against Cleveland. The Warriors are a decent defense and while they pace down Toronto, it helps that Barnes has the guard-forward eligibility. With such a low projected rostership, I’m happy throwing him in large-field GPP lineups.
- DraftKings: $6,100
- FanDuel: $6,400
I fully expect the Detroit-New York game to go completely overlooked tonight, which is why I am so comfortable slotting those players into my GPP lineups. Mikal Bridges projects for around 5-6% rostership, but with dual eligibility and a lower price tag, he makes for a great GPP play.
There is a lot of volatility at play here, as Bridges can score four DraftKings points a night or 32 — both scores he’s achieved in the last four games. But Detroit has allowed the 10th-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, so it’s not exactly like this is the toughest matchup for Bridges. He’s one of the riskier GPP players but that’s part of the process.
NBA DFS Value Plays
Jaden McDaniels (SF, PF – MIN)
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,800
Honestly, take your choice of the many Timberwolves players and roll the dice. Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Naz Reid and Jaden McDaniels all project around 6X return on value. I’m going with McDaniels because he’s the best combo of cheap price with high minutes and thus a high ceiling, in my opinion.
With only a 15% usage rate on the season, he has been playing increased minutes recently with a higher scoring and rebounding output. Just this Saturday he put up 41 DraftKings points against a high-paced Memphis team that is a night and day difference defensively than Washington. McDaniels is well within reason for another ceiling game tonight.
Trayce Jackson-Davis (C, PF – GSW)
- DraftKings: $5,600
- FanDuel: $6,400
Trayce Jackson-Davis is slowly pushing himself off the value option as his price continues to rise. Jackson-Davis has been averaging around 30 minutes a night recently, playing just shy of a double-double a night. Draymond Green is questionable tonight, which might lead to more usage for the Indiana product in the frontcourt.
Golden State also gets a prime matchup against Toronto. They are in a pace-up spot against a top 10-paced team with the third-worst defense in the league. The Raptors also have allowed the third-most DraftKings points to opposing centers, a whopping 60+ a night. I project Jackson-Davis for around 30 points tonight as he continues to price himself higher and higher.
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