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NBA DFS Lineup Picks & Advice: Monday (1/20)

Welcome to the Monday NBA DFS slate, and happy Martin Luther King Jr. Day. The holiday makes for a wonky NBA slate but there is still plenty of DFS to go around. If you’re going to do NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping, especially on this slate that runs through the middle of the day. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. I will focus on a five-game main slate across both sites. Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.

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NBA DFS Lineup Optimizer

NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer

NBA DFS Core Plays

Karl-Anthony Towns (C – NYK)

  • DraftKings: $9,700
  • FanDuel: $10,000

While Towns is dealing with a right thumb sprain and has missed the last two games, he’s projected to be back full-go tonight. Maybe that questionable tag will move people off his ownership but with a sub-$10k price tag on DraftKings with one of the highest ceilings on the slate. Atlanta is one of the friendly DFS matchups to get, as the Hawks are the third fastest-paced team in the league. They allow the ninth most DK points to opposing centers and have a sub-par defense. It helps that the Knicks are at home after a little bit of rest and Towns’ gets a bit of a bump in New York. The Kentucky product has tallied 55-plus DK points in five of the last seven matchups and I won’t be surprised at all if he reaches that threshold today.

Anthony Edwards (SG – MIN)

  • DraftKings: $9,100
  • FanDuel: $9,300

When facing Memphis, it’s a difficult game to play as they are the fastest-paced team in the league with a top-five defense. The possession rate will be high, but efficiency will be low. But with a total of around 236, one of the highest on the slate, I want to get the talent the Ant offers in this game. The Grizzlies allow the ninth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards, and Edwards’ usage has only risen today in the last eight games with 38 minutes a night, scoring 30 a game. He’s gone over 60 DK points in two of his last four games and has a higher ceiling than that. He’s been playing well recently, will get a ton of opportunities through additional possessions, and isn’t priced as high as most players with his ceiling usually are.

CTAs

NBA DFS Cash Game Targets

Jayson Tatum (SF/PF – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $10,000
  • FanDuel: $10,500

He’s a high-priced player, so it’s tough to say he’s exactly a cash game lock but with his 30 percent usage rate and high-efficiency rate, he’s close to it. Tatum has scored 40-plus DK points in 16 of his last 18 games. He has as high a floor as ever. The Duke product averages more fantasy points on the road this year and still sees the court for 36-plus minutes a night. The Warriors are a fair pace-up spot, and their defense has taken a step back, ranking 18th in the league over their last 10 games. This game feels like a 50-point effort in the making without anything crazy by Tatum.

Jarrett Allen (C – CLE)

  • DraftKings: $6,600
  • FanDuel: $7,500

He’s received quite a price jump on FanDuel, but on DraftKings, Allen slots in as one of the best DFS options for tonight’s slate. With Evan Mobley going down, Allen projects to play 34 minutes after averaging 28 a game this season. He didn’t exactly do well against Minnesota, but he projects much better tonight and hasn’t been priced to updated to reflect the higher usage. Phoenix allows the sixth most DK points to opposing centers, with the Suns defense ranking in the bottom 10 in the league. It’s a great spot for Allen so don’t think too much about putting him into your cash linueps.

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NBA DFS GPP Targets

Kristaps Porzingis (C – BOS)

  • DraftKings: $7,000
  • FanDuel: $7,800

I imagine a lot of Boston’s ownership will go to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown tonight, and it seems like the Celtics’ center is going under-owned, projected around 12 percent ownership. There are some solid center options as well so it makes sense. Going to Porzingis at his price tag opens up the rest of your lineup for elite players. In his last four games, Porzingis has averaged nearly 40 DK points and is in a pace-up spot where he should play over 30 minutes after taking a game off for injury management. His 25 percent usage rate is promising here, and he has already gone over 50 DK once. I’m going with him again for GPP lineups.

Andrew Wiggins (SF/PF – GSW)

  • DraftKings: $6,300
  • FanDuel: $6,700

Andrew Wiggins will be your guy if you’re looking for a bring-back in those Boston-centric lineups. I project him around 34 fantasy points tonight. He won’t have high ownership because Boston is a pace-down spot and a top-tier defense. But given the 35 minutes he’s been seeing of late and the 27 percent usage rate, his pricing is too low to pass up. Wiggins is coming off an incredible outing against Washington and has played 35 minutes in three straight games. Boston is a tougher matchup, but he is still a good GPP option for the opportunity Wiggins will get.

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NBA DFS Value Plays

Dean Wade (SF/PF – CLE)

  • DraftKings: $3,700
  • FanDuel: $4,000

With the new Cleveland look, there’s going to be a lot of additional value to be found in that lineup. Dean Wade is one of those options. He’s projected for 27 minutes and will get a usage boost against a Phoenix frontcourt that doesn’t exactly jump off the page defensively. Wade already averages 18 fantasy points a night, and now he projects closer to 24, which obviously makes him a great value option.

Mike Conley (PG – MIN)

  • DraftKings: $3,900
  • FanDuel: $4,200

For the same reason I like Anthony Edwards tonight, Mike Conley makes for a great value play on paper tonight. Given Memphis’ defense, Conley feels more of a boom-bust option that I’d along closer to GPP play than cash lineups but the point still stands. It helps that Ja Morant is questionable, but either way, Conley going over 20 DK points feels destined tonight. His usage rate is around 15 percent, and with 24 minutes and additional possessions, he will get the chance for a ceiling-type output tonight.

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