Welcome to the Thursday NBA DFS slate. I hope you’ve had a profitable week and a wonderful season so far as we continue through the cold weather getting past Winter. If you’re going to play NBA DFS, you must keep in mind lineup announcements and stay tuned for late swapping.
There are a lot of teams on back-to-backs tonight, so late swapping will be your best chance at an optimal lineup. That will be the easiest way to stay ahead of the field and in the money. We have an eight-game slate tonight, which is the perfect amount of games, in my opinion.
Ultimately, it’s about making the right choices and picking your spots, which is why I’m here. Let’s break down the top plays for this slate.
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel DFS Primer
NBA DFS Core Plays
- DraftKings: $12,200
- FanDuel: $12,800
Listen, anytime Nikola Jokic is on a main slate; he’s going to be one of the highest-rostered players as a core play. At this point, he’s projected for over 60 fantasy points, and you have to throw the idea of 5X value away because of his pure point level.
Jokic has tallied 60+ DraftKings points in three straight outings and is capable of a higher ceiling than anyone else in the league. He is matchup-proof, but if that’s of any concern to you, Jokic went for 65 fantasy points last time out against Sacramento.
- DraftKings: $8,700
- FanDuel: $9,300
There will be a lot of love for Toronto tonight, so sorry if I repeat myself throughout this article. But it’s important to get some ideas to you rather than pure players to allow you to build out lineups with a solid strategy.
Given his dual guard-forward status, Scottie Barnes can slot in wherever you need for your GPP or cash lineups. This is the fastest-paced game by far on this slate. With Atlanta coming off the back-to-back, I expected the Raptors’ offense to run much better. Barnes has shown his capacity to reach 60 DraftKings points. I project him for just shy of 50 fantasy points tonight.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (PG – OKC)
- DraftKings: $10,500
- FanDuel: $11,700
After a career outing last night, I expect a lot of rostership to go toward Shai Gilgeous-Alexander tonight against Dallas. I will lead by saying in your deeper field GPPs that he’s not exactly a lock button.
Still, coming off 81 DraftKings points is hard to ignore. Anytime he’s on a slate, the Thunder guard has the capacity for a ceiling game at any point. Both teams rank in the top 10 in pace of play. Dallas’ defense isn’t anything to write home about, so I’m once again going back to the well on Gilgeous-Alexander.
NBA DFS Cash Game Targets
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $7,100
Oh, look, another Toronto player. The opportunities will be there and that’s what I chase when filling out my cash lineups. After a tough outing last time against Orlando, this is a much friendlier matchup for Jakob Poeltl, who has averaged 36 DraftKings points a game this season.
The 235 total is an easy number to chase, and with Jalen Johnson questionable and a general “who knows” with Atlanta on a back-to-back, there is a good chance Poeltl eats tonight in the paint.
- DraftKings: $6,200
- FanDuel: $6,900
Russell Westbrook’s price tag continues to fall, but at some point, you have to buy the dip and invest #notinvestingadvice. Still, he’s played over 24 minutes as a floor in the last two months and his usage has sat around 25% in the last two weeks of games.
Westbrook has consistently been scoring on the court in all the stat columns and is playing in the game with the highest total. His minutes limit his ceiling but his usage and the game slate raise his floor for your 50/50s and double-ups.
- DraftKings: $7,000
- FanDuel: $8,000
The other side of the Denver-Sacramento game features some interesting options for cash lineups, but I’m going with Malik Monk, at least on DraftKings. De’Aaron Fox and Domantas Sabonis are tempting but give me a bit of a price decrease to fill my lineups with higher floor options.
Monk has been hot lately, scoring 40+ in two of his last three games, with his salary dropping from there. He plays for 37 minutes a night with a 24% usage rate, so I love his floor when the total is 241.
NBA DFS GPP Targets
- DraftKings: $9,600
- FanDuel: $9,700
There’s a big if next to Trae Young’s name here, as there’s a 50/50 chance he sits tonight. Assuming he plays, however, Young makes for a perfect bring-back spot on all your Raptors lineups.
The Oklahoma product can go off at any time, and he showed his ceiling potential last time against Toronto by going for over 60 DraftKings points. The Raptors allow the fifth-most points to opposing point guards. I imagine Young will take advantage of this matchup if he plays.
- DraftKings: $5,000
- FanDuel: $5,700
Usually, I’m either chasing ceiling, going after low-owned leverage or both. It’s hard to exactly say Keegan Murray has an impressively high ceiling, but he is coming in at around 5% projected rostership for tonight and his optimal percentage has to be higher than that.
Murray is projected to play around 32 minutes. While he doesn’t have an impressive usage rate, he still has seen a bump in scoring of late, and Denver doesn’t exactly suffocate opposing forwards.
NBA DFS Value Plays
- DraftKings: $4,200
- FanDuel: $4,700
Early rostership projections are quite low on Gradey Dick, and that is pure madness. He should be a highly-rostered player, but early projections come in around 10-12%. I do expect that to rise, given the matchup.
Atlanta is the second-fastest-paced team in the league and allows the fifth-most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards. Considering this is the second-highest total on the slate with Atlanta on the back-to-back, Toronto should be highly rostered across the board. Dick will be capable of catching fire and generating a ceiling performance for your lineups.
Christian Braun (SG, SF – DEN)
- DraftKings: $4,300
- FanDuel: $5,500
In case you aren’t aware, I really like the Denver-Sacramento and Toronto-Atlanta games tonight, and am going all in on those matchups.
The total is quite the draw and the dual eligibility is another for Christian Braun, who is only priced at $4,300 on DraftKings. I project Braun for around 24 points and he can easily get to 6X value in today’s game.
- DraftKings: $6,100
- FanDuel: $6,300
I’m throwing Andrew Wiggins in at the end of this article because there are still a lot of injury reports yet to come out, and Golden State is primed for a high-ceiling game against a fast-paced but weak Chicago Bulls defense.
Currently, I project Wiggins for around 35 DraftKings points, which might be low. Despite a higher price tag for this category, he still offers high value. If you’re looking for another option, Buddy Hield ($4,500 on DraftKings) makes for a solid guard-forward status value option.
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