If you are new to the high-stakes world, drafts can be overwhelming when you first sit down at the table. It is not just the larger amounts of money being played for or the amazing talent drafting against you that can be jarring, but the way rosters are constructed, which is different from your average fantasy league.

In my last pieces on high-stakes leagues, we looked at how to approach pitchers and hitters. In this article, we will talk about my approach to the first few rounds of a high-stakes draft.

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High-Stakes Leagues Draft Strategy: Early Rounds

Pick Strategy

Before we jump into what types of players we should target or avoid, let’s talk about KDS. First of all, what is KDS? KDS stands for Kentucky Derby Style and it is how you pick your draft slot. In this format, you rank your preferred draft slot in order. In a 15-team league, for example, you might set up your draft preference as 2, 14, 1, 10, 11, 7, 13, 4, 6, 12, 5, 3, 15, 9, 8. I think everyone has a preferred spot in the draft they like and this format gives you a better chance to land that as opposed to a random draw. There are two ways to look at it. First, where are you most likely to land the player you want most in the first round?

If you want Corbin Carroll and his average draft position (ADP) is around pick 10, you can probably get him eighth or ninth overall, so there is no reason to put picks 1-7 high in your KDS. I think there is a clear top-two this season in Bobby Witt Jr. or Shohei Ohtani, but the next five or six players are pretty interchangeable, so I would most likely have my KDS be something along the lines of 1, 7, 8, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15.

I either end up with Witt or whoever falls to me in the middle of the draft while having an earlier pick than the front of the draft in the second round. This brings me to the other way to look at it. You will get a stud in the first round no matter what, so look for where the big drop-offs are in the second and third rounds. If you think there are only 20 stud players then maybe you should set your KDS to target your second-round pick at 20.

If you think there is a massive difference between the top 35 players and players in the 36-45 range then maybe you want to get your third-round pick before 36. These are important factors to think about with your KDS selection. Finally, some drafters either love or hate picking on the turn. If you don’t feel comfortable with drafting on one end of the other then prioritize the middle of the draft.

Start at the End

What are you looking for in terms of drafting early? I think it is counterintuitive, but when you are thinking about who to draft, you should look at the end of the draft before the beginning. After you have done your player analysis, you should have a list of players you feel are undervalued at either specific positions or for certain categories.

For example, let’s say you have a player going late in the draft you love at second base, then you don’t need to worry as much about targeting a player like Ketel Marte. If you feel there is a lot of cheap speed at the end of the draft then maybe you focus on power and batting average at the top of the draft. Having an endgame strategy should inform your early draft strategy.

Remember, you need to stay balanced because of the overalls in the majority of these contests. Here are the 80th percentile targets for last season’s National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Main Event:

Hitters

Pitchers

Balance is Key & The Importance of Having a Plan

Balance is important, especially in these early rounds because they allow you more options to target in later rounds. I like to leave my first five rounds with at least two offensive players who contribute in all five categories, a closer and a starter. Usually, I draft two starters in the first five rounds but am open to pushing my second starter down a round or two, especially if I get an ace I feel confident in like Tarik Skubal.

I think one of the most important things to think about when drafting early is risk tolerance. I think a lot of drafters think the best way to win in high-stakes leagues is by shooting for high-risk upside. The opposite is true. Volume is the best way to win in these formats. Players like Marcus Semien are often pushed down March drafts because they aren’t as sexy while players like Junior Caminero rise.

However, the fact Semien is more likely to deliver 650-700 plate appearances means he is a much better bet. You want to take high-risk gambles, but take them later and don’t compound the risk. If you draft a risky player, especially early, don’t take a bunch more. Remember when you add or multiply risk bets it is much less likely they all hit.

Finally, you should have a plan when you enter your draft. After finding out my draft spot, I make decision trees to mock who should be available within the first five to 10 rounds and who I would take. I also make backup plans in case I get sniped. The more prepared you are the better your draft will go.

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