Finding the right sleepers and avoiding costly busts can make or break your fantasy baseball season. To help you get ahead of the competition, we’ve gathered insights from our Featured Pros analysts to identify this year’s most intriguing breakout candidates and biggest potential disappointments. Whether you’re looking for undervalued draft-day steals or players to fade based on expert concerns, our consensus rankings will give you a clear edge. Let’s dive into the top sleepers and busts for the 2025 fantasy baseball season-straight from the experts who know best.
Fantasy Baseball Sleepers & Busts
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball sleeper and why?
Sal Frelick (OF – MIL)
“Sal Frelick is coming at a deep discount. Frelick is a speedster who I believe will spend much of the season hitting leadoff for the run-happy Brewers. He added a lot of muscle in the offseason and should improve an admittedly weak exit velocity. His glove will keep him on the field.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)
Matt Shaw (2B, 3B – CHC)
“Matt Shaw – He’s breaking camp with the Cubs and looks to be the starting third baseman. Despite this and third base not being exactly strong, Shaw’s ECR is still at 240. He’s coming off a 21 HR / 31 SB minor league season with lower to manageable strike-out numbers and an almost 100-point higher OBP. The Oopsy projections have him at 15 HR and 20 SB in under 120 projected games. Shaw isn’t much of a sleeper “name,” but his ECR and ADP show us many are still sleeping on the rookie.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
Nick Kurtz (1B – ATH)
“My biggest fantasy sleeper is Nick Kurtz of the Athletics. While there is no specific timeframe for his debut as of right now the potential is too much to overlook. Take someone with lights-out power and above-average contact for the amount of power and put him in a tin-can stadium for home games. It is a recipe for a monster year that I look forward to enjoying.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Jesus Luzardo (SP – PHI)
“There is really no such thing as a pure sleeper in fantasy baseball, where every league member knows the player pool so deeply. That said, Jesus Luzardo is now in a good situation and still has very live stuff. When he was last making regular starts, we saw a K rate of over 10 batters per nine innings. He will well outperform the current ADP of SP64, which is what a sleeper really is – someone who well outperforms their ADP.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
Robbie Ray (SP – SF)
“Robbie Ray is a sleeper at ADP 165.5. In limited action last year, he showed what made him a former Cy Young winner. His strikeout rate was over 30% for the first time since 2021 and was the highest of his career in any season. Ray’s groundball rate was lower than you’d want, but with the spacious outfield in San Francisco, it shouldn’t be a dealbreaker.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)
“I already gave you Victor Robles last time for after 150. Inside the top 150, I’d like to perform a PSA for PCA, Pete Crow-Armstrong. Currently going just inside or around 150, I have him inside my top 100. He did struggle upon first callup, but it was his first real callup, and they toyed with his playing time early on. Second half, the Cubs gave him a starting job, and he proceeded to hit .262 with seven homeruns and 10 stolen bases with a better K rate and BB rate. He’s got elite speed (4th in 80 ft splits, 6th in sprint speed). After the first couple of rounds, there aren’t many guys that should give you 15+ HRs to go with 30+ SBs and the possibility of a plus average.”
– Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers (Razzball)
Roki Sasaki (SP – LAD)
“Identifying a single “biggest sleeper” in fantasy baseball can be challenging, as sleeper potential varies based on league dynamics and individual team needs. However, one player who stands out as a potential sleeper for the 2025 season is Roki Sasaki of the Los Angeles Dodgers. His current ADP is 104 which places him in round 9 of 12 teams fantasy baseball league drafts. His splitter and fastball have been outstanding this spring. We are going to get an early look at him as he is scheduled to start game 2 of the Tokyo Series against the Chicago Cubs on March 19th. It would not surprise me if Roki Sasaki finishes in the top 10 of fantasy baseball league starting pitchers this season.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Brandon Pfaadt (SP – ARI)
“Brandon Pfaadt’s underlying stats in 2024 warrant sleeper status in 2025. He had an ugly 4.71 ERA, but his xERA was almost a full run lower at 3.78. Perhaps more importantly, his FIP was 3.61, and his xFIP was 3.58. His walk percentage is an impressive 5.5%, and his 24.3% strikeout rate continued to move in the right direction. Batters could not figure out his sweeper with an xBAA of .195 and a 36.2 Whiff percentage. If Pfaadt can continue to improve these numbers and get a little more swing-and-miss on his four-seamer, he could be an absolute steal at his ADP of 176.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust and why?
Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)
“Jacob deGrom still has a top-50 ADP in NFBC this year. Why would anyone do that to themself? DeGrom had an insane peak but turns 37 this year and hasn’t had an over-100-inning season since before the pandemic. The upside is high, the chances of no return at all are higher.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)
“I don’t have high hopes for Jacob deGrom. His ADP is 55.5, which is way too high for a pitcher who hasn’t pitched 100+ innings in a season since 2019. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball whenever he’s healthy. Since 2020, he’s compiled a 2.10 ERA with a 13.9 K/9. However, he turns 37 this summer and has dealt with too many injuries to convince me he can stay healthy all season.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
Brenton Doyle (OF – COL)
“Brenton Doyle’s coming off a monster fantasy season with 23 HR and 30 SB. He barreled the ball well but had average hard-hit numbers and a strikeout rate of over 25%. He over-performed against all pitch types, while more specifically only dominated sinkers, and struggling against four-seam fastballs and sliders. His home environment is a plus, but he sported a huge home/road split, hitting over .300 at home and just .211 on the road. He finished the second half of 2024, hitting just .234. His rank and ECR are both inside the top 75 players this season. If he repeats last year, then he will return cost, but I worry the league will catch up to him where we see those counting stats and average dip.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
Ketel Marte (2B – ARI)
“My biggest fantasy bust is Ketel Marte. Right now, he is going consistently at the end of round 2 and the start of round 3 as the top second baseman off the board often. He has one full season of elite production and is past his prime. The red flags from regression to injury just scream for that price point to be an unmitigated disaster.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
“There is a lot of pressure on Aaron Judge now, with Juan Soto gone and replaced by lesser former MVPs, and Giancarlo Stanton may be out for the year. He has a very high bar to clear again to meet expectations as the third overall pick, and I haven’t forgotten his history of injuries. The Yankees superstar isn’t hitting 50 home runs again, and it could be considerably less if he presses and/or misses significant time. I could be wrong on this one, but I have a bad gut feeling about him in what already looks like a challenging year for the Yanks.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
Bo Bichette (SS – TOR)
“Bo Bichette is somehow still being drafted as a top 100 player (insert Ryan Reynolds Harold and Kumar gif), but why? The upside he once had is gone. He doesn’t hit the ball hard anymore, with a declining average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and an embarrassing 5.3% HR/FB last year (Whit Merrifield had 4.8%, and Victor Robles was at 6%, for reference). And another thing, he’s also not fast anymore. 289th in sprint speed around guys like Will Smith, Seth Brown, Josh Jung, and Ivan Herrera. What’s the upside here, Jurickson Profar (70 picks later)?”
– Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers (Razzball)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
“My definition of a “fantasy bust” is a player that significantly underperforms their average draft position. The player that I expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust is Ronald Acuna Jr. His average ADP is currently 28. He’s now dealt with two serious injuries in his career, and I see a significant reduction in stolen bases this season, especially after ACL surgeries on both knees. It would not surprise me if he finished with 20-30 stolen bases at the most, assuming he stays healthy for the entire season. I believe that you can find comparable players 3 to 4 rounds later in your drafts. Ronald Acuna Jr. is too high of a risk/reward for me this season, especially in early rounds of fantasy baseball league drafts.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Jackson Chourio (OF – MIL)
“I like Jackson Chourio, but I do not like his ADP of 18. Whether I am simply paranoid about a sophomore slump remains to be seen, but I am concerned about his 26th-percentile chase rate and 35th-percentile whiff rate. Zeile projections have him at 23 home runs and 27 stolen bases, and I fail to see how that warrants consideration in the second round, especially at the outfield position. I think Chourio is one year away from making “the leap,” but unless it’s a keeper league, I’m staying away from him at his current ADP.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
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