Finding the right sleepers and avoiding costly busts can make or break your fantasy baseball season. To help you get ahead of the competition, we’ve gathered insights from our Featured Pros analysts to identify this year’s most intriguing breakout candidates and biggest potential disappointments. Whether you’re looking for undervalued draft-day steals or players to fade based on expert concerns, our consensus rankings will give you a clear edge. Let’s dive into the top busts for the 2025 fantasy baseball season-straight from the experts who know best.
Fantasy Baseball Busts
Who is the player you expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust and why?
Jacob deGrom (SP – TEX)
“Jacob deGrom still has a top-50 ADP in NFBC this year. Why would anyone do that to themself? DeGrom had an insane peak but turns 37 this year and hasn’t had an over-100-inning season since before the pandemic. The upside is high, the chances of no return at all are higher.”
– Jesse Severe (Fantasy Hockey Life)
“I don’t have high hopes for Jacob deGrom. His ADP is 55.5, which is way too high for a pitcher who hasn’t pitched 100+ innings in a season since 2019. deGrom is the best pitcher in baseball whenever he’s healthy. Since 2020, he’s compiled a 2.10 ERA with a 13.9 K/9. However, he turns 37 this summer and has dealt with too many injuries to convince me he can stay healthy all season.”
– Chase Davis (FantasyPros)
Brenton Doyle (OF – COL)
“Brenton Doyle’s coming off a monster fantasy season with 23 HR and 30 SB. He barreled the ball well but had average hard-hit numbers and a strikeout rate of over 25%. He over-performed against all pitch types, while more specifically only dominated sinkers, and struggling against four-seam fastballs and sliders. His home environment is a plus, but he sported a huge home/road split, hitting over .300 at home and just .211 on the road. He finished the second half of 2024, hitting just .234. His rank and ECR are both inside the top 75 players this season. If he repeats last year, then he will return cost, but I worry the league will catch up to him where we see those counting stats and average dip.”
– Chris Welsh (FantasyPros)
Ketel Marte (2B – ARI)
“My biggest fantasy bust is Ketel Marte. Right now, he is going consistently at the end of round 2 and the start of round 3 as the top second baseman off the board often. He has one full season of elite production and is past his prime. The red flags from regression to injury just scream for that price point to be an unmitigated disaster.”
– Chad Simpson (Fantasy Six Pack)
Aaron Judge (OF – NYY)
“There is a lot of pressure on Aaron Judge now, with Juan Soto gone and replaced by lesser former MVPs, and Giancarlo Stanton may be out for the year. He has a very high bar to clear again to meet expectations as the third overall pick, and I haven’t forgotten his history of injuries. The Yankees superstar isn’t hitting 50 home runs again, and it could be considerably less if he presses and/or misses significant time. I could be wrong on this one, but I have a bad gut feeling about him in what already looks like a challenging year for the Yanks.”
– Scott Engel (RotoBaller)
Bo Bichette (SS – TOR)
“Bo Bichette is somehow still being drafted as a top 100 player (insert Ryan Reynolds Harold and Kumar gif), but why? The upside he once had is gone. He doesn’t hit the ball hard anymore, with a declining average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, and an embarrassing 5.3% HR/FB last year (Whit Merrifield had 4.8%, and Victor Robles was at 6%, for reference). And another thing, he’s also not fast anymore. 289th in sprint speed around guys like Will Smith, Seth Brown, Josh Jung, and Ivan Herrera. What’s the upside here, Jurickson Profar (70 picks later)?”
– Brandon ‘B_Don’ Myers (Razzball)
Ronald Acuna Jr. (OF – ATL)
“My definition of a “fantasy bust” is a player that significantly underperforms their average draft position. The player that I expect to be this year’s biggest fantasy baseball bust is Ronald Acuna Jr. His average ADP is currently 28. He’s now dealt with two serious injuries in his career, and I see a significant reduction in stolen bases this season, especially after ACL surgeries on both knees. It would not surprise me if he finished with 20-30 stolen bases at the most, assuming he stays healthy for the entire season. I believe that you can find comparable players 3 to 4 rounds later in your drafts. Ronald Acuna Jr. is too high of a risk/reward for me this season, especially in early rounds of fantasy baseball league drafts.”
– Jeff Boggis (Fantasy Football Empire)
Jackson Chourio (OF – MIL)
“I like Jackson Chourio, but I do not like his ADP of 18. Whether I am simply paranoid about a sophomore slump remains to be seen, but I am concerned about his 26th-percentile chase rate and 35th-percentile whiff rate. Zeile projections have him at 23 home runs and 27 stolen bases, and I fail to see how that warrants consideration in the second round, especially at the outfield position. I think Chourio is one year away from making “the leap,” but unless it’s a keeper league, I’m staying away from him at his current ADP.”
– Kelly Kirby (FantasyPros)
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