Sleepers outside the top 300 in average draft position (ADP) is my favorite pre-draft topic in all of fantasy baseball. Most casuals can tell you who is a good pick in the 12th round or even the 15th, but it’s those diehards who play in 16-team leagues that draft over 400 players where my interest lies.
After the top 300 are off the board, I tend to search for potential breakouts or players who possess some illicit value under their current circumstances. Those are the guys I target rather than the depth pieces who could finish with decent marks but in no way move the needle. There are also a few value players who may stand out in one single category.
There likely won’t be any five-category studs left other than perhaps one, but there are still plenty of diamonds in the rough that could make a significant difference in your season. Who will be this year’s Seth Lugo or Jackson Merrill? Stay tuned to find out. Here are my top targets for players beyond the top 300 in fantasy baseball ADP.
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Late-Round Fantasy Baseball Sleeper Targets
Max Scherzer (SP – TOR) | 304 ADP
Let’s start with Max Scherzer. Scherzer is past his prime but in the right matchups, the old man can still be a quality asset. Entering camp with a clean bill of health and “feeling great,” Mad Max could produce helpful numbers across the board. His strikeout totals and annual low WHIP should be reason enough to start him against softer opponents. The future Hall of Famer is projected to produce an ERA under 4.00 with a WHIP that hovers around 1.15. Scherzer will also flirt with a strikeout per inning.
While some of my colleagues aren’t too high on the Blue Jays, I think with an improved bullpen and the few additions they did make, Toronto could finish well above .500. Scherzer will also have the luxury of playing with two of the top defenders in the league behind him. Andres Gimenez is a freak in the infield and Daulton Varsho is arguably the best defensive outfielder in the game. Scherzer will cost you an early 300s pick, but an above-average season could be in the cards for the aging veteran.
Tobias Myers (SP – MIL) | 314 ADP
Tobias Myers is my favorite player on this list. He is not only a strong candidate to blow past his projections, but could very well outperform players taken a full 10 rounds before him. Myers spent years honing his craft as he toiled through multiple organizations in the Minor Leagues. After finally being given his shot in Milwaukee, the 6-foot-2, 26-year-old did not disappoint. Myers finished with a clean 3.00 ERA and 1.17 WHIP over 27 games (25 starts). He earned nine wins and struck out 8.28 batters/nine innings.
The talented righty was consistent all year after struggling in his first few Major League outings. In 111.1 innings from the start of June until the end of the season, Myers registered a tidy 2.42 ERA with a 1.10 WHIP. He also produced eight wins and 100 strikeouts. Myers closed out the year with a stellar postseason appearance holding the Mets to zero runs on just two hits and no walks over five innings. The Brewers’ second-year starter is the diamond in the rough you are searching for.
Garrett Mitchell (OF – MIL) | 351 ADP
Garrett Mitchell is a no-brainer for this list as he is likely the only candidate to have a legit chance at a 20/20 season. Penciled in to bat fourth in the Brewers’ lineup (FanGraphs), Mitchell could have a banner year producing in all five categories.
Injuries have held him back to this point in his career, but over three partial seasons, the Milwaukee outfielder has registered 13 homers and 20 steals in just 322 at-bats. Steamer has him projected for a 15/19 season but their projections are usually of the modest variety. Mitchell’s worth a selection well before pick 300 in ADP but since he is going so late in drafts, you can probably wait on him a bit.
Honorable Mentions
- Jeimer Candelario (1B, 3B, DH – CIN): A bounce-back candidate after suffering a hand injury last season.
- Nolan Schanuel (1B – LAA): Should be in store for a big second year in RBI and batting average.
- Dustin May (SP – LAD): Innings might be limited but could dominate.
- Joc Pederson (OF, DH – TEX): Should be a masher in Texas in daily leagues.
- Shane Bieber (SP – CLE): Should start 15-20, making him worth stashing, even with innings limitations.
- Wilyer Abreu (OF – BOS): A decent five-category target.
- Justin Verlander (SP – SF): Could be good in Oracle Park.
- Otto Lopez (2B, SS – MIA): Target him for steals and batting average.
- Luisangel Acuna (SS – NYM): Had an impressive Winter League; has upside like his brother Ronald Acuna.
- Jonah Bride (1B, 3B – MIA): Not a great option but should hit cleanup and capped his season with a 480-foot homer last year. Put up nice Minor League numbers.
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Austin Lowell is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Austin, check out his archive.