There should always be specific guidelines for what defines a bust in fantasy baseball. It’s disingenuous to call a mid-round or late-round pick a bust since the expectations are lower as the average draft position (ADP) is later in fantasy baseball drafts.
Instead of calling the following hitters busts at their respective ADPs, they’re hitters gamers should avoid in fantasy baseball drafts near their ADPs.
- Fantasy Baseball Draft Rankings
- Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
- Fantasy Baseball Average Draft Position (ADP)
- Fantasy Baseball News
Fantasy Baseball Hitters to Avoid
Josh Naylor (1B – ARI) | Hitter #48/74 ADP
Josh Naylor was the 32nd-ranked hitter by our value-based ranking metric (VBR) in 2024. At a glance, Naylor is a bargain. However, copying and pasting fantasy baseball production from one season to the next isn’t how things work.
The left-handed-hitting first baseman launched a career-high 31 homers in 633 plate appearances in 2024 after hitting 17 in 495 in 2023 and 20 in 498 in 2022. According to Baseball Savant, Naylor’s 41.9% no-doubter home run rate (homers in all 30 parks) was 91st among 222 hitters with at least 10 homers in 2024.
Seven of his taters were doubters (homers in one to seven MLB ballparks). Naylor’s 29.1 expected homers were slightly fewer than his 31. His 29 homers would have also been a career-high mark and a stellar number.
Unfortunately, Naylor’s homers in 2024 came at the expense of his batting average. According to FanGraphs, Naylor had a .308 batting average and a .293 expected batting average (xBA) in 2023. Those marks dipped to .243 and .257 in 2024. He also had a .257 xBA in 2022, making 2023 the outlier for his batting average.
Sadly, Naylor is downgrading his home ballpark for round-trippers after the Guardians traded him to the Diamondbacks. According to our ballpark factors, Progressive Field has a left-handed batter park factor of 1.037 for homers versus 0.767 at Chase Field. Thus, Naylor’s homers should regress into the low 20s.
The low 20s for homers coupled with a batting average in the range of his 2022 and 2024 xBA (.257) or his career .262 batting average puts a ton of pressure on his RBI output to pick up the slack for him to provide value commensurate with a 74 fantasy baseball ADP. Naylor is a more palatable pick if he falls 10-15 picks beyond his current ADP.
Cody Bellinger (1B, OF – NYY) | Hitter #60/93.5 ADP
Cody Bellinger’s Baseball Savant batting page has a lot of blue. Last year, he was in the 36th percentile in expected batting average (.242 xBA), 43rd percentile in expected slugging (.391 xSLG), 23rd percentile in average exit velocity (87.8 miles per hour), 32nd percentile in barrel rate (6.3%), 15th percentile in hard-hit rate (32.9%), 34th percentile in launch-angle sweet-spot rate (32.9%) and 13th percentile in bat speed.
Even though Bellinger’s .266 batting average significantly outperformed his .242 xBA, he was the 64th-ranked hitter in VBR in 2024. His 18 homers were also underwhelming. He’s cleared 20 homers only once since hitting a career-high 47 in 2019. Bellinger deserves credit for bouncing back from a forgettable three-year stretch from 2020 through 2022.
Still, he hasn’t surpassed 600 plate appearances in a season since 2019. His 23.5 homers per 600 plate appearances the previous two years and his .268 xBA in 2023 and .242 xBA in 2024 were nothing to write home about. The 29-year-old is drafted 20+ picks earlier than he should be.
Spencer Steer (1B, OF – CIN) | Hitter #62/98 ADP
Injured players are an avoidable landmine, namely injured players with a top-100 ADP. Spencer Steer might start the season on the injured list (IL) with a shoulder injury that reportedly dates back to last season. MRI exams haven’t revealed any significant structural damage, but the shoulder issue persisting through the offseason and requiring a cortisone shot is a red flag.
Moreover, Steer’s second-half collapse last year was troubling. In 258 plate appearances in the second half last season, Steer recorded the following stats:
- 5 home runs
- 24 runs
- 32 RBIs
- 11 stolen bases
- .198 batting average
- .291 on-base percentage
- .344 slugging
- .145 ISO
- 20.3 Soft-Hit%
- 48.8 Medium-Hit%
- 30.8 Hard-Hit%
- 87.6 MPH average exit velocity
- 107.7 MPH maximum exit velocity
- 4.7 Barrel%
Among 129 qualified hitters in 2024, Steer’s second-half average exit velocity, maximum exit velocity and barrel rate would have ranked 110th, 123rd and 113th, respectively.
Investing in a hitter with a mysterious shoulder injury on the heels of a second-half swoon is too risky for my taste inside the first 15 rounds in 12-team mixed leagues (i.e., a top-180 pick). Steer’s ADP inside the top 100 picks is reckless.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud | TuneIn
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
