Things don’t always click immediately for highly-regarded fantasy baseball prospects. Additionally, an encouraging debut doesn’t always forbode an excellent follow-up campaign. The bloom is off the rose for the following three players, but they’re exciting post-hype fantasy baseball sleepers at their respective average draft positions (ADP).
Fantasy Baseball Post-Hype Sleepers
Josh Lowe was a power/speed asset in his first full season on the Rays in 2023, swatting 20 homers with 32 stolen bases, 71 runs, 83 RBI, a .292 batting average and a .335 on-base percentage (OBP) in 501 plate appearances. According to FanGraphs, Lowe had a .276 expected batting average (xBA) and a .480 expected slugging rate (xSLG) in 2023, mainly validating his breakout campaign.
Sadly, Lowe’s 2024 campaign was derailed by multiple injuries, but he’s healthy now. Lowe showed signs of life in the second half, even in an underwhelming season last year. In 62 games and 225 plate appearances in the second half last season, Lowe recorded five homers, 22 runs, 20 RBI, 17 stolen bases, a .262 batting average, a .320 OBP and a .403 slugging rate.
The left-handed-hitting outfielder has also been much better on the road than at home in his career. Take a look at the splits:
|
Home Runs |
Stolen Bases |
Batting Average |
OBP |
Slugging Rate |
ISO |
| Home (505 Plate Appearances) |
7 |
33 |
.253 |
.306 |
.388 |
.135 |
| Road (583 Plate Appearances) |
25 |
28 |
.270 |
.324 |
.474 |
.204 |
The Rays will play home games at George M. Steinbrenner Field in 2025. The field’s dimensions are identical to Yankee Stadium. According to our park factors, Yankee Stadium has the fifth-highest park factor for left-handed homers (1.238). Gamers shouldn’t give up on Lowe after a down year in 2024. He’s a post-hype sleeper with bounce-back potential.
Heliot Ramos’ development has been a slow burn since the Giants picked him 19th overall out of high school in the 2017 MLB Amateur Draft. He quickly reached Double-A but didn’t light the level on fire. He was a below-average hitter in Triple-A through his first 278 games. The light went on for Ramos in Triple-A in 2023, but he couldn’t bring his success to the Majors. He was outstanding in Triple-A again in 2024 and finally figured it out in the Majors.
He had the following stats in 518 plate appearances for the Giants in 2024:
- 22 homers
- 6 stolen bases
- 54 runs
- 72 RBI
- .269 batting average
- .322 OBP
- .469 slugging
- .200 ISO
- 7.1% walk rate
- 26.1% strikeout rate
Ramos had a stellar season at the dish and his Statcast data was even more impressive.
According to Baseball Savant, among qualified hitters in 2024, Ramos was tied for 13th in barrels per plate appearance percentage (9.7 Brls/PA%), tied for 18th in barrels per batted-ball-event percentage (14.5 Brls/BBE%) and tied for 22nd in fly-ball/line-drive exit velocity (96.1 miles per hour). He’s not just a hulking slugger, either.
Ramos has some speed. He had a sprint speed of 27.9 feet per second on competitive runs last year — Baseball Savant had the Major League average on competitive plays at 27 feet per second. Ramos stole 15 bases in the Minors in 116 games and 495 plate appearances in 2021, nine in 67 games and 282 plate appearances in 2023 and two in 30 games and 134 plate appearances in Triple-A in 2024.
Ramos has double-digit stolen base potential with the upside of swatting 30+ homers. He won’t turn 26 until September. Ramos previously demonstrated the ability to improve after repeating professional levels. He could do the same this year.
Gavin Williams was the 23rd pick in the 2021 MLB Amateur Draft and zoomed through the Minors. He reached The Show in 2023 and performed well. In 16 starts spanning 82 innings for the Guardians in 2023, Williams had a 3.29 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. Yet, Williams’ 4.21 xERA, 4.53 xFIP and 4.61 SIERA indicated he was somewhat lucky.
At a glance, the other shoe dropped for Williams in 2024. He had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts, totaling 76 innings. Yet, Williams had a 4.22 xERA (only 0.01 higher than in 2023), 4.12 xFIP (0.41 lower than in 2023) and 4.19 SIERA (0.42 lower than in 2023).
The 25-year-old hurler is sparkling this spring. In three starts spanning eight innings in spring training, Williams has a 1.13 ERA, 1.71 xFIP, 0.88 WHIP, 6.3% walk rate, 50% strikeout rate, 26.1 SwStr% and 34.1 CSW%.
Spring training statistics should be taken with a grain of salt. Still, Williams’ prospect pedigree and success in the Minors, coupled with his superb spring, are reasons to believe he can improve his career 4.04 ERA, 4.33 xFIP, 1.31 WHIP, 10.2% walk rate, and 23.6% strikeout rate. Williams is an intriguing target slightly ahead of his fantasy baseball ADP to get a look at his early-season performance and continue riding with him or cut bait.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
