Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has seven games starting at 6:45 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s pick ’em suggestions at Sleeper and Underdog are also from the seven-game afternoon slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Friday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL) vs. MIA
Spencer Schwellenbach pitched absurdly well for the Braves last year after pitching only 13 innings in Double-A and skipping Triple-A. According to FanGraphs, in 21 starts spanning 123.2 innings last season, Schwellenbach had the following stats.
- 3.35 ERA
- 3.44 xERA
- 3.34 xFIP
- 3.42 SIERA
- 1.04 WHIP
- Eight wins
- 12 quality starts
- 4.6 BB%
- 25.4 K%
- 13.5 SwStr%
- 29.7 CSW%
- 105 stuff+
- 108 location+
- 111 pitching+
The sophomore righty also spun six scoreless innings in San Diego in his first start of the year, holding the Padres to one hit and one walk with four strikeouts.
Schwellenbach and the Braves are -220 against the visiting Marlins, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs. Among the 13 hitters on Miami’s active roster, only three have had a wRC+ above 110 versus righties since 2023 or debuting, and just two more have a wRC+ above 63. Their lineup is dreadful and strikeout-prone. Schwellenbach should carve them up, and he’s the top pitching selection in all game types on tonight’s slate.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (LAD) at PHI
Yoshinobu Yamamoto doesn’t have an easy assignment tonight. Among Philadelphia’s probable starters, J.T. Realmuto (99 wRC+), Bryson Stott (98 wRC+) and Nick Castellanos (97 wRC+) are the three worst hitters against righties since 2023, and they’re within a few points of average. Furthermore, Bryce Harper (143 wRC+), Brandon Marsh (128 wRC+) and Kyle Schwarber (127 wRC+) have had a wRC+ above 125, and Trea Turner (115 wRC+) and Max Kepler (114 wRC+) aren’t slouches. They can rough up even excellent pitchers.
Still, Yamamoto is an outstanding pitcher, and the betting info is encouraging. In two starts spanning 10 innings this year, Yamamoto has a 2.70 ERA, 3.09 xERA, 1.75 xFIP, 2.01 SIERA and 1.10 WHIP. He’s also struck out an eye-popping 34.1% of the batters he’s faced this year, with 14.6 SwStr% and 34.8 CSW%, validating his robust strikeout rate. Finally, the Dodgers are -140, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
Gavin Williams (CLE) at LAA
Gavin Williams significantly outkicked his ERA estimators in his rookie season in 2023, and the luck pendulum swung the opposite direction when his 4.86 ERA was notably higher than his ERA estimators in 2024. Williams’ true talent level likely falls somewhere in the middle. In 33 career starts spanning 163 innings, he’s had a 4.03 ERA, 4.35 xFIP, 4.35 xFIP, 4.42 SIERA, 1.30 WHIP and 23.3 K%. The righty’s full-season projections range from an upper 3.00’s ERA to a lower 4.00’s ERA.
The projections are fair. However, Williams’ pitch modeling suggests he could perform better than his projections. He has 104 stuff+, 103 location+ and 105 pitching+ in his career and had 116 stuff+, 100 location+ and 113 pitching+ in his first start this year.
Williams has the goods to tie up the Angels. Mike Trout (141 wRC+) is the only hitter on their active roster with a wRC+ above 110 versus righties since 2023 or debuting. Los Angeles’s hitters range from mediocre to below-average beyond Trout. Thus, the Guardians are -120, and the game’s total is 8.0 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
The Rangers are home favorites in a game with a relatively hitter-friendly total of 8.5 runs, which is eye-catching on a slate with a lack of high totals. Zack Littell isn’t an apparent punching bag, but his 3.63 ERA last year was better than his 4.34 xERA, 4.01 xFIP and 3.99 SIERA. He’s also not great against lefties or righties. Since last year, Littell has allowed a .316 wOBA to lefties and a .308 wOBA to righties. Finally, the Rangers love hitting in their hitter-friendly home ballpark. Seven of Texas’s projected starters have played with the Rangers since 2023 or since they’ve debuted, and they’ve all had at least a 100 wRC+ at home since 2023.
- Road (Globe Life Field)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 8.5 Runs/TB +110
Tyler Mahle has pitched fewer than 50 innings in the Majors since 2023 because of injuries. He had Tommy John surgery in 2023 and right shoulder stiffness in 2024. Mahle wasn’t a top-shelf pitcher before injuries, and he had a 4.97 ERA, 3.75 xERA, 4.56 xFIP and 4.53 SIERA in three starts last season.
In five starts spanning 17 innings in spring training, Mahle had a 3.71 ERA and 4.95 xFIP and was destroyed in his first regular-season start. He faced 11 batters in his first start, recording only five outs and allowing two hits, four walks and one run. Mahle has allowed a .315 wOBA to 1,353 lefties and a .324 wOBA to 1,434 righties in his career. I expect the Rays to use a few more righties in their platoon-heavy lineup to exploit Mahle’s reverse platoon split. Still, Mahle hasn’t tied up lefties, either. I expect fireworks from both offenses in the Lone Star State tonight.
Core Studs
- Since 2023, Corey Seager has had a .395 OBP, .296 ISO and 172 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
- In 232 career plate appearances against righties at home, Wyatt Langford has five homers, a .353 OBP, .157 ISO and 128 wRC+.
- Brandon Lowe is off to a good start this year. In 26 plate appearances this season, Lowe has two homers, four runs, six RBIs, a .346 OBP, .250 ISO, 167 wRC+, .384 wOBA and .509 xwOBA.
Value Plays/Punts
- In 230 plate appearances against righties since 2023, Jonathan Aranda has eight homers, a .335 OBP, .193 ISO and 124 wRC+.
- Junior Caminero has a DFS-friendly lineup spot and a 117 wRC+ through 23 plate appearances this year. He can make the most of Mahle’s reverse platoon split.
- In 412 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Leody Taveras has 14 homers, a .302 OBP, .165 ISO and 100 wRC+. He’s an average hitter with the platoon advantage at home. That’s a good enough profile at his punt salary, and Taveras’s speed (23 stolen bases last year and two this season) is the cherry on top.
Friday’s Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.5 Earned Runs – Higher (Sleeper) (1.53x)
Brandon Pfaadt: 1.5 Earned Runs – Higher (Underdog) (0.86x)
Brandon Pfaadt’s over for 1.5 earned runs is justifiably chalky. He’s a modern-day Ricky Nolasco regarding underperforming his ERA estimators. As a result, Pfaadt has allowed over 1.5 earned runs in 24 of 33 starts since last season. Furthermore, he’s coughed up more than 1.5 earned runs in 11 of his previous 13 starts.
Matt Olson: 7.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)
Matt Olson is off to a slow start this season. Nevertheless, in 29 plate appearances in 2025, he has one run, two RBIs, a .379 OBP, .136 wRC+ and 111 wRC+. Olson is also a beast with the platoon advantage at home. In 527 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Olson has had 34 homers, a .391 OBP, .291 ISO and 160 wRC+. Conversely, Max Meyer has yielded a .351 wOBA to 149 lefties in his career.
Corey Seager: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)
I highlighted Seager’s excellence against righties since 2023 above. However, he’s even more impressive when parsing the data to plate appearances against righties at home during that period. In 388 plate appearances against right-handed pitching at home since 2023, Seager has 30 homers, a .441 OBP, .354 ISO and 210 wRC+.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
