Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate has five games starting at 6:35 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel. Today’s pick ’em suggestions at Sleeper and Underdog are also from the five-game slate.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Michael Lorenzen (KC) at DET
The pitching options on tonight’s slate are atrocious. Still, Michael Lorenzen is the best of an unappealing lot, and it doesn’t take too much squinting to see a rock-solid DFS option. Per FanGraphs, in three starts spanning 17 innings this season, Lorenzen has a 3.71 ERA, 4.09 xERA, 3.60 xFIP, 3.73 SIERA and 1.24 WHIP. Lorenzen’s 19.4 K% is underwhelming, but he offsets a low strikeout rate with a low walk rate (5.6 BB%) and high ground-ball rate (50.0 GB%).
Lorenzen has a favorable matchup tonight. Kerry Carpenter (149 wRC+ versus righties since 2023) and Riley Greene (139 wRC+ versus righties since 2023) are challenging matchups, but no one else in Detroit’s projected lineup has had a wRC+ above 106 against righties since 2023 or debuting. Moreover, Colt Keith (97 wRC+), Zach McKinstry (82 wRC+), Trey Sweeney (70 wRC+) and Javier Baez (54 wRC+) are below average to downright awful against right-handed pitching.
Tanner Bibee (CLE) at BAL
The Angels lit up Tanner Bibee for seven runs (all earned) on eight hits, one walk and four strikeouts on April 5. It was a nightmare outing, inflating Bibee’s full-season totals. He’s allowed zero runs in 10.1 innings in his two other starts.
In Bibee’s two scoreless starts, he allowed five hits and walked six batters. However, he also struck out only six batters. Walking as many batters as a pitcher strikes out is a recipe for disaster. Fortunately, Bibee’s 11.2 SwStr% and 30.5 CSW% forebode better strikeout results.
The Orioles are a challenging matchup for Bibee. Nevertheless, the Guardians are -120, albeit the game’s total of 8.5 runs is a bit alarming.
Will Warren (NYY) at TB
Will Warren’s 5.14 ERA and 5.03 xERA in three starts this year don’t inspire confidence in his ability to help DFS teams tonight. Yet, the righty’s 3.71 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 1.14 WHIP and 26.3 K% are more encouraging.
Warren’s plate discipline and pitch-modeling data are also eye-catching. He has an 11.0 SwStr%, 33.5 CSW%, 103 stuff+, 98 location+ and 106 pitching+ are stellar. The Rays are a tricky matchup, and Warren’s ERA and xERA provide pause. Still, Warren is an intriguing SP2 in GPPs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Jack Kochanowicz is an outstanding pitcher against whom to stack. In three starts this year, he has a 5.74 ERA, 4.44 xERA, 4.67 xFIP, 4.87 SIERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.1 BB% and 13.6 K%. The young righty’s strikeout rate is puny. Pitching to contact is dangerous against the Rangers in their hitter-friendly home ballpark.
Core Studs
- In 959 plate appearances against righties since 2023, Aaron Judge has 73 homers, a .431 OBP, .344 ISO and 195 wRC+.
- Corey Seager has had a .394 OBP, .291 ISO and 171 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- In 498 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Adolis Garcia has had 29 homers, a .319 OBP, .257 ISO and 126 wRC+.
- Ben Rice has swatted nine homers with a .314 OBP, .250 ISO and 119 wRC+ in 175 plate appearances against righties since debuting last year.
Value Plays/Punts
- Josh Smith has batted third in his past three starts. He’d be worth his salary based on his lineup spot alone. However, Smith also has a .332 OBP, .135 ISO and 104 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
- In 555 plate appearances against righties at home since 2023, Marcus Semien has had 27 homers, a .314 OBP, .209 ISO and 113 wRC+.
Thursday’s Top 3 Sleeper and Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Aaron Judge: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.69x)
Aaron Judge: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Underdog)
In 18 games and 81 plate appearances this year, Judge has 15 singles, five doubles, zero triples, seven homers, a .409 batting average, .330 xBA, .803 slugging, .779 xSLG and .394 ISO. He’s exceeded 1.5 total bases 12 times this year. Since last season, Taj Bradley has yielded 536 righties a .244 batting average and .480 slugging. Thus, we project Judge to have 2.13 total bases tonight.
Ben Rice: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Sleeper) (1.83x)
Ben Rice: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
In 16 games and 65 plate appearances this year, Rice has 15 hits, 12 runs, seven RBIs, a .273 batting average, .322 xBA, .618 slugging and .707 xSLG. He’s surpassed 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs nine times this season.
Corey Seager: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Sleeper) (1.72x)
Corey Seager: 1.5 Total Bases – Higher (Underdog)
Seager is a monster with the platoon advantage at home. In 402 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers at home since 2023, Seager has had 123 hits (64 singles, 29 doubles, zero triples and 30 homers), a .355 batting average, .699 slugging and .344 ISO.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
