In 2024, there was plenty of debate over whether the running back dead zone existed as wide receivers were pushed heavily up draft boards. After a season in which running backs bounced back, they are now being drafted more aggressively than before, which begs the question… is the fantasy football running back dead zone back in best ball?
Fantasy Football Dead Zone Running Backs to Draft in Best Ball
For those unfamiliar with the running back dead zone, it dates back to work done by Shawn Siegele (RotoViz), Ben Gretch (Stealing Signals) and Jack Miller (Establish The Run). Their work showed that taking running backs between rounds three and six typically worked out very poorly for fantasy football teams.
2025 Fantasy Football Dead Zone Running Backs
Currently, there are 15 running backs in the traditional dead zone rounds, based on Underdog’s average draft position (ADP). Who should you target and who should you fade?
Perhaps one of the easier clicks in this zone, Josh Jacobs averaged 20.6 touches per game last year. He never saw fewer than 17 in a game after the team’s Week 10 bye. The Packers passed the ball at the third-lowest rate last year (49.3%). Even if that trends upward with Matthew Golden‘s arrival, there will still be plenty of work for Jacobs in 2025.
Verdict: Target
Why is Chase Brown in the dead zone? From Week 9 onwards, Brown averaged 20.6 PPR points per game with 23.6 touches per game. Perhaps Zack Moss, Khalil Herbert or sixth-round rookie Tahj Brooks will eat into that volume slightly, but Brown has shown he’s an explosive player and has the trust of the team. In best ball, we want players who can score a ton and keep the pace up.
Verdict: Target
One of the tougher clicks in the dead zone is Kyren Williams, who, for the second straight year, faces an incoming rookie behind him. Jarquez Hunter was someone the Rams wanted to draft. While that doesn’t always indicate immediate workload, it’s hard to ignore.
Williams now has to hold off Hunter and second-year back Blake Corum. Williams averaged 81 rushing yards per game in 2024, which ranked fourth among running backs, but he also fumbled the ball three times and ranked 35th in juke rate among running backs with 100+ carries. Last year, people were writing off Williams, and he went on to have a fine season, finishing as the RB10 in half-PPR points per game, but a repeat is no easy thing to predict.
Verdict: Mix in, but not aggressively
The Bills running back is currently heading towards a training camp contract standoff, having been vocal about wanting to get paid. The Bills, for their part, have been consistently extending or re-signing their own players this offseason, but James Cook hasn’t received an invite to the party yet.
Cook, for his part, led all players in touchdowns during the fantasy football season (17), but that was quite the outlier compared to the nine touchdowns he combined to score in the previous two seasons. Cook was incredibly reliant on touchdowns for his fantasy value, ranking 24th in scrimmage yardage among running backs.
If Cook signs a contract extension, he’ll likely increase in cost, but it’s hard not to consider he could be primed for touchdown regression.
Verdict: Fade, unless he falls past his ADP
On a recent FantasyPros Best Ball episode, Andrew Erickson and I talked about how difficult of a click Omarion Hampton is. There’s no denying he’s a fun player and in a fun situation with the Chargers, but the gap between him and Najee Harris in ADP (66 spots) is larger than it should be.
Rookies tend to grow into their role as the season progresses. Perhaps Hampton could be a late-season hammer, but if he fails to earn goal-line touches, this could be a costly click.
Verdict: Mix in, but not aggressively
Ever since Aaron Glenn took over the Jets, he’s talked about mixing in more of a committee approach at the running back position. That in itself isn’t surprising, given he came from a Lions team that had the best committee in the league.
Glenn was asked at league meetings about this, and he said:
“Breece Hall is in a good place, mentally. But I would say that we have three running backs on this team that we’re gonna utilize as much as possible. They’re all big men, they can run, they’re violent, they’re physical.”
There’s no denying Hall’s talent, but he’s also yet to break 1,000 rushing yards in a season, despite playing 16 games in each of the last two. There has also been the issue of persistent trade rumors in the last few months, making it harder to judge if Hall is integral to the team’s plans.
Verdict: Mix in, but not aggressively
Last year, Chuba Hubbard had eight top-12 weekly finishes and scored over 20 points on six occasions, making him one of the best value picks in 2024, with an ADP of 137.6.
Hubbard’s ADP is almost 80 spots higher now, and it becomes more of a conversation. The Panthers have a solid offensive line, and while the addition of Tetairoa McMillan could be seen as a negative, if this offense is more productive, then that could also benefit Hubbard.
Verdict: Target
The worries about Zach Charbonnet have impacted Kenneth Walker’s ADP this year, which seems fair, as Charbonnet averaged 111.2 scrimmage yards in the four games he saw 18+ touches.
Walker is a good player, though, and the change of offensive coordinator, as well as moving on from DK Metcalf, seems to indicate a heavier running approach this year. In redraft, Walker might be more problematic, but in best ball, he shouldn’t be ignored totally.
Verdict: Mix in, but not aggressively
The Texans did very little to make us concerned for Joe Mixon’s workload this year when it comes to the backfield, but the changes on the offensive line are perhaps a concern.
Their offensive line ranked 29th in Pro Football Focus (PFF) grades in 2024, and they traded Pro Bowl left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Perhaps Mixon can overcome this with involvement in the passing game, but it’s not a great recipe.
Verdict: Approach with caution
The Lions lost David Montgomery for the last three weeks of the season to injury, but he made it back for their only playoff game. He saw only seven touches compared to Jahmyr Gibbs‘s 14.
Whether that trend continues in 2025 is hard to say. The Lions love Montgomery, and if he continues to hold the goal-line role, he’ll have value, but it’s very hard to predict.
Verdict: Approach with caution
The Patriots had offers on the table to move down in the second round, but stayed fast and selected TreVeyon Henderson. Mike Vrabel saw him as the type of running back he wanted to build his team around, but has also been quoted as saying Rhamondre Stevenson will still be a big part of this backfield.
Betting on Henderson would likely need the mindset that fumbles continue to be a problem for Stevenson and that by the end of the season, Henderson is fully in control of the backfield.
Verdict: Target, but not too aggressively
This will be Alvin Kamara’s ninth NFL season, and he’s yet to hit 1,000 rushing yards in any of them. With an awful offensive line, who knows what at quarterback and Kendre Miller earning more touches last season, it’s hard to get too excited about Kamara or anyone in this offense.
Verdict: Fade
This ADP (54.9) feels very expensive. RJ Harvey was a surprise selection by the Broncos with the 60th pick in the draft, ahead of some backs expected to go before him. The Broncos have been a messy committee for a few years now, and Sean Payton has long talked about wanting to work with two running backs in an offense.
Last year, nobody was effective in this backfield, but if one of Audric Estime or Jaleel McLaughlin can take valuable touches away from Harvey, it could be tricky for him to pay off this expensive cost.
Verdict: Approach with caution
The Cardinals signed James Conner to an extension after an impressive 2024 season, where he had his second consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season.
Conner has had at least eight touchdowns in each of the last three seasons and has consistently been a value for fantasy football. Trey Benson showed little in his rookie year. Conner should be able to keep control of this backfield.
Verdict: Target
The Browns made people excited when Quinshon Judkins was selected with the 36th overall pick, but that excitement was somewhat hampered by them re-signing Jerome Ford and also selecting promising rookie Dylan Sampson with the 126th pick.
This offense could be problematic with issues at quarterback and a work-in-progress offensive line, which adds to the worry of a committee approach.
Verdict: Approach with caution
The biggest concerns for Aaron Jones are his health and Jordan Mason‘s addition to the backfield. Jones has played 17 games in two of the last three seasons, but he consistently seems to get banged up and miss drives, hitting the 20-touch mark only twice in his last five games of 2024.
Mason looks like he’ll thrive in this scheme, and the Vikings seemed set on adding someone with strong ability to compete with Jones.
Verdict: Fade
If Cam Ward can be competent, then this whole Titans offense can take a step forward in 2025, having ranked 27th in points scored per game last year and 23rd in plays per game.
The Titans have talked about wanting to mix in Tyjae Spears more, but it seems likely that Tony Pollard continues to be the top dog in this offense. His 4.3 yards per carry (YPC) bested Spears’ 3.7 mark and he boasted a 5.4% big run rate compared to 2.3% for Spears, plus he produced over 700 more total yards.
Verdict: Target, but not too aggressively
It felt like the perfect selection when the Steelers drafted Kaleb Johnson in the third round of the 2025 NFL Draft. Johnson isn’t a perfect back, but he has the size that Arthur Smith has typically craved in his offenses/
While Jaylen Warren is a fun player, we’ve never seen him control a backfield. Johnson should immediately have a solid role.
Verdict: Target
The Bears didn’t draft a running back, despite being linked with many of the top options. D’Andre Swift has fallen into a de facto No. 1 RB role once more, with only Roschon Johnson behind him.
It’s hard to fade Swift entirely when he has a prime role, but it’s also hard to ignore how Swift’s career has panned out with teams never seeming to be enamored with him.
Verdict: Approach with caution
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