Rookie hype runs wild every offseason, but savvy dynasty managers know that not every first-year player is worth the investment. In fact, some of the most talked-about rookies in fantasy football end up being costly mistakes in long-term formats. To help you avoid those traps, we’ve asked our collection of Featured Pros to highlight the overvalued dynasty rookies to avoid heading into the 2025 season. Whether it’s inflated draft capital, poor landing spots, or long-term uncertainty, these players carry more risk than reward based on current market value. Before you lock in your rookie draft picks, make sure to review this expert-driven list to avoid setting your dynasty team back.
Overvalued Dynasty Rookies to Avoid: Wide Receivers
Who is an overvalued rookie WR based on early rookie rankings that you’ll be avoiding in dynasty drafts and why?
Matthew Golden (WR – GB)
“Matthew Golden in Green Bay feels like a risky pick to me. He’s going at WR4 and 12th overall, which doesn’t leave much left for a value increase. I think this is probably his best possible outcome, and in Green Bay, that’s asking a lot. The Packers have a bad history of utilizing rookie receivers correctly recently. Golden could be the exception to that rule, but I’m not trusting it myself. I’d rather pass on him for others with higher upside and pay a premium later if he ends up being the guy he’s being drafted to be.”
– Andrew Hall (FantasyPros)
“I’ll lead this off by saying I’m lower than consensus regarding Matthew Golden heading into the NFL Draft. With the selection of Golden and then the team following that up by selecting Savion Williams (round 3) later in the NFL Draft, I don’t think Golden will be the team’s “true WR1.” Those correlated moves speak more to Green Bay continuing its wide receiver-by-committee approach. Even if they don’t and the team seeks to run more of the offense through Golden, I don’t know if he has the high-end target-drawing ability to reward their faith. Golden finished his collegiate career with an 18.7% target per route run rate and 1.85 yards per route run (per PFF). Neither of those metrics screams “future alpha WR1″ in the NFL.”
– Derek Brown (FantasyPros)
Pat Bryant (WR – DEN)
“Pat Bryant‘s rookie ADP has skyrocketed since he was selected in the third round by the Denver Broncos. He was ranked much lower pre-draft, and the track record of WR “large reaches” in the middle rounds is not great. Bryant ran a 4.61 40-yard dash at 204 pounds and had a later breakout at the age of 20. Round 3 WRs hardly hit anyway, so consider me skeptical that Bryant is truly Sean Payton’s “next Michael Thomas.” Give me another first-year RB in Round 3 of my rookie drafts.”
– Andrew Erickson (FantasyPros)
Travis Hunter (WR, CB – JAC)
“I am not a Travis Hunter truther. Is he talented? Absolutely! However, this is the NFL, where elite players have spent their entire careers honing skills at their respective positions; his focus has been split. Additionally, his body has far more wear than typical rookie WRs, given his penchant for playing both sides of the ball. It’s unknown how much this will impact his sustainability in the NFL, but something to consider, nonetheless. He currently ranks as the No. 3 overall rookie (WR1) and is nestled around Tee Higgins, DeVonta Smith, Jalen Hurts, and Joe Burrow in overall dynasty rankings. Given this projection, I’d prefer to see if anyone in my league is willing to overpay for him and get more picks in this year’s draft and/or posture for future drafts. Remember: think long-term in dynasty.”
– Avery Thrasher (The Branded Sports)
Jack Bech (WR – LV)
“Jack Bech goes to Las Vegas, where he instantly earns the nickname “BlackJack” Bech. Bech’s strength is his sure hands, but his lack of speed is enough of a concern for me to bet against him. Bech’s forty time was only a 4.5, which doesn’t exactly instill fear into the hearts of NFL defensive backs. Add in the fact that the Raiders want to feature RB Ashton Jeanty and focus on TE Brock Bowers in the passing game, and Bech’s fantasy outlook dims under the headline stars in Las Vegas. With a current rookie ranking at WR 8, Ringo thinks drafters who bet on BlackJack Bech will go bust.”
– Mark Ringo (Sleepers and Busts)
Luther Burden III (WR – CHI)
“Luther Burden III, ranked as a top-5 rookie WR in 2025 dynasty drafts, is overvalued due to his landing spot with the Chicago Bears, where he faces a crowded target hierarchy behind DJ Moore, Rome Odunze, and potentially Colston Loveland. His college production relied heavily on schemed touches, and he may struggle to earn consistent targets as a rookie in a complex Ben Johnson offense. At his early first-round ADP, the risk of delayed fantasy relevance outweighs his long-term potential. Dynasty managers should pivot to a WR like Tre Harris of the Chargers, who has a clearer path to immediate volume.”
– Aaron St Denis (Fantasy Sports Advice Network)
“Luther Burden III headed to Chicago just feels like a mess. Burden will have to now contend with D.J. Moore, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet, D’Andre Swift, and fellow rookie Colston Loveland for offensive touches in 2025. Not a great sign if fantasy managers are looking for immediate production from the former Iowa Hawkeye. While the Bears are a new hot spot due to the arrival of new HC Ben Johnson, do not be drawn in by the hype on this one unless someone departs via a trade. Burden cannot be considered anywhere near the first round of rookie drafts, barring any other personnel movement.”
– Ed Birdsall (Talking Points Sports)
Savion Williams (WR – GB)
“While Savion Williams (WR14 and 40th overall in the rankings) is far from a first-round pick, I have no interest in drafting the former TCU playmaker. The Packers used their first-round pick on Matthew Golden, making him the first wide receiver the team selected on Day 1 since 2002. More importantly, Green Bay has other options at wide receiver with more fantasy appeal, including Jayden Reed and Romeo Doubs. Unless Williams finds a role in the backfield behind Josh Jacobs and alongside MarShawn Lloyd, I doubt he will develop into a fantasy-relevant option. I would rather take a shot on Jaylin Lane (WR23 and 64th overall in the rankings) with hopes of him eventually becoming Jayden Daniel’s No. 2 wide receiver than draft Williams.”
– Mike Fanelli (FantasyPros)
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