Fantasy baseball is a marathon, not a sprint. Unlike other fantasy sports, the season is long and drags on as the weeks roll on. However, because it is such a grind, fantasy managers can lose focus on what’s important, allowing astute fantasy managers to take advantage.
We are still early in the season when people will make bad decisions in terms of trades because of small samples. Hot streaks and cold streaks can scare your competition. Sometimes, underlying numbers aren’t showing up in the surface numbers quite yet. If someone in your league is ready to overreact, take advantage of their impatience.
Here are some players I would try and buy low and sell high on at this point in the season. Use our fantasy baseball trade analyzer to help with values.
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Fantasy Baseball Trade Advice
Buy Low
Adley Rutschman is struggling mightily, hitting .206/.302/.339 with five home runs and just 15 RBI this season. However, his underlying numbers are in line with previous results.
Rutschman’s xBA is .263 and his xSLG is .458. He is getting unlucky in the HR/FB rate and batting average on balls in play (BABIP), while his Z-Contact, O-Swing, swinging strike rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and barrel rates are the best of his career. Considering he is struggling and had a down year last season, he shouldn’t cost a ton on the trade market right now.
Salvador Perez (C, 1B, DH – KC)
Salvador Perez is hitting just .222/.260/.348 with four home runs and 11 runs scored this season. However, his xBA is .293, and his contact numbers are the best he has had in the last five seasons. He is still hitting the ball very hard.
Perez has just a 6% HR/FB rate, which is way below his career mark of 14%, and his BABIP is low. He is another good bet to rebound.
Matt McLain is struggling, hitting .179/.278/.306 this season. He does have six home runs and 11 stolen bases, which is good, but he has his worst strikeout rate at any level (31.7%).
McLain’s zone contact number is fine and the best of his career. His O-Swing and swinging strike rates are also good, which is a sign that his average should come around as well. McLain should rebound easily, so this may be the last time you will be able to buy low on him.
Brenton Doyle is hitting .214/.279/.353 with five home runs and six stolen bases. Doyle has been unlucky with a .258 BABIP and a 9.6% HR/FB rate. He has a .252 xBA and a .450 xSLG.
Doyle is hitting the ball hard and still making league-average Z-Contact, and has a career-best O-Swing and swinging strike rate. As things heat up in Colorado, he should heat up as well.
Sell High
Pete Crow-Armstrong (OF – CHC)
Pete Crow-Armstrong has been amazing, hitting .275/.303/.563 with 15 home runs and 16 stolen bases. He has been making some great strides in his zone contact rate, which is important, but there are some big red flags.
Crow-Armstrong has the second-worst O-Swing of any qualified hitter and the seventh-worst swinging strike rate. This likely means his strikeout rate will increase and his batting average will crater. His 17.4% HR/FB rate is unsustainable.
Crow-Armstrong is lifting the ball and pulling it a ton, which is working for now, but pitchers will begin to attack him differently, and he may not be able to adjust back. His value is sky-high and you should cash in now.
Tyler Mahle has been fantastic this season, throwing 66 innings with a 1.66 ERA and 48 strikeouts. However, his K-BB% is the worst of his career, and his swinging strike rate is just 10%.
Mahle’s xERA is 3.81, and he has been extremely lucky with his HR/FB, strand rate and BABIP. I don’t expect him to completely fall apart, but now is the best time to sell him before he regresses a ton.
After a slow start, Yusei Kikuchi has been fantastic, throwing 64.2 innings of a 3.06 ERA and 58 strikeouts. However, his xERA is 4.43, and he is getting extremely lucky in strand rate and HR/FB.
Kikuchi is showing the worst stuff numbers of his career, and it’s backed up by his worst O-Swing and swinging strike rates. Kikuchi is a streaky pitcher. Now is the time to sell.
Chad Patrick has been great, throwing 57.2 innings with a 2.97 ERA and 51 strikeouts. However, he has a 3.89 xERA and a 4.23 SIERA. He has a terrible 8.8% swinging strike rate and a high Z-Contact.
Patrick allows a lot of hard contact and a lot of fly balls for a guy with a 5% HR/FB rate. He is also getting lucky with his strand rate. Things are going to come back to Earth as the summer heats up in the Midwest. Now is the time to cash in.
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