Ryan Pasti | Wed, Mar 11th 2026, 7:06am EDT

9 Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Draft Picks to Avoid on ESPN

ESPN is weird. For whatever reason, ESPN’s fantasy baseball player rankings wildly stray from the consensus of other platforms such as Yahoo and CBS.

For example, ESPN gives Bryan Abreu an average draft position (ADP) of 152, while his consensus ADP is 266. Research using FantasyPros’ ADP shows similar situations in which ESPN players are ranked significantly higher than the rest of the draft world.

ESPN rankings typically assign more value to aging veterans and players who are good in points formats. Highlighting players that ESPN overvalues reveals players that ESPN users should avoid on draft day.

Overvalued Fantasy Baseball Players to Avoid on ESPN

Paul Skenes (SP – PIT) | ESPN ADP: 4/Consensus ADP: 9

The title of this list is players to avoid. I cannot stress enough that I am not telling you to avoid Paul Skenes.

The 23-year-old reigning National League Cy Young Award winner has been elite. He had an ERA of 1.96 in 2024 and followed it up with an ERA of 1.97 in 2025. By these metrics, Skenes should have an ERA of 1.98 this season. Jokes aside, Skenes is an incredible talent, and he is simply valued a little higher in ESPN leagues. Just consider hesitating before drafting him in the very early first round.

Ketel Marte (2B – ARI) | ESPN ADP: 14/Consensus ADP: 27

In 2025, Ketel Marte completed arguably his third consecutive dominating season. He won the Silver Slugger Award at second base in 2024 and 2025. Last season was Marte’s third consecutive campaign with over 25 home runs.

Marte deserves to be drafted early. But how early? The 32-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down. It is not ridiculous to draft the second baseman at his ADP. Just also consider other powerhouse players that will likely be available on ESPN, such as Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Junior Caminero.

Alex Bregman (3B – CHC) | ESPN ADP: 30/Consensus ADP: 92

Alex Bregman has finally settled down with the Chicago Cubs after signing a five-year, $175 million deal. Although the third baseman just got a huge payday, he is coming off an injury-ridden season. Bregman hit an impressive .273 batting average, a .821 OPS and 18 home runs, but he played in just 114 games due to a quad injury.

Although Bregman is a consistent talent on the hot corner, it is hard to justify drafting the 31-year-old five rounds earlier than on other sites. On ESPN, Bregman is expected to go before fellow corner infielders Pete Alonso, Matt Olson and Nick Kurtz. Third base is somewhat thin this season, but I am not sure Bregman is the answer.

Framber Valdez (SP – DET) | ESPN ADP: 40/Consensus ADP: 79

Framber Valdez has been consistently good for so long. Last season was Valdez’s fourth consecutive campaign throwing over 170 innings with an ERA below 3.70. Valdez continued to excel in 2025, but he struggled after the beginning of August. He had a rough 6.05 ERA in 10 appearances to close the season.

These struggles led the 32-year-old to his worst season since 2019. It goes to show that Valdez’s worst season in half a decade was 192 innings of 3.66 ERA baseball with 187 strikeouts. Despite Valdez’s talent, it does not make much sense to draft him this early when so many other good pitchers are available later.

Nico Hoerner (2B – CHC) | ESPN ADP: 48/Consensus ADP: 91

Nico Hoerner is a high source of batting average and stolen bases. He rarely misses games. The 28-year-old is a token of speed and health, but not power. He has 36 career homers in seven seasons (but he has homered seven times in both 2024 and 2025).

Hoerner looks to continue his excellence in 2026, but is someone without power a fifth-round pick? It is hard to say he is, especially when late-round stolen base options are abundant.

Jesus Luzardo (SP – PHI) | ESPN ADP: 49/Consensus ADP: 76

ESPN ADP values Jesus Luzardo as a top-20 pitcher. He was awarded Cy Young votes last season, throwing 183.2 innings with a 3.92 ERA and a 10.2 K/9 ratio. It is hard to find 20 better pitchers. However, 2026 is not based on 2025, and Luzardo has had an up-and-down career.

Luzardo will still most likely be a great option this season. However, it makes more sense to draft a more proven arm here, such as Joe Ryan (ESPN ADP of 53).

Jose Altuve (2B – HOU) | ESPN ADP: 52/Consensus ADP: 98

ESPN believes in Jose Altuve more than most. The 35-year-old declined in 2025, having an OPS of .771 and a batting average of .265 in 155 games. He hit 26 home runs (a three-year high).

Altuve was healthy. He did not play poorly. Still, Altuve did not live up to lofty expectations. His consensus ADP is perhaps too low, but his ESPN ADP is far too high for an aging infielder.

Steven Kwan (OF – CLE) | ESPN ADP: 70/Consensus ADP: 150

For whatever reason, ESPN loves Steven Kwan. He is perfect for points leagues because he puts the ball in play, walks about as much as he strikes out and hits for a high average. It sounds crazy, but his ESPN ADP is not too far off for points leagues.

In non-points leagues, there is absolutely, unequivocally, no way Kwan should be drafted so early. The 28-year-old has limited power and RBI potential.

Zac Gallen (SP – ARI) | ESPN ADP: 121/Consensus ADP: 210

Zac Gallen had a rough 2025. Gallen surprisingly followed up three consecutive stellar seasons with a 4.82 ERA in 192 innings. The 30-year-old righty had an xERA of 4.27, which is better, but definitely not great. Although Gallen looks to bounce back, he is a huge question mark.

Gallen has great value at his consensus ADP. At his ESPN ADP as a pick inside the top 150? No way.

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