MLB DFS Picks & Underdog Player Props: Saturday (5/31)

We’ve reached the last day to build your bankroll up in May. For today’s DFS picks article, we are looking at the main slate on DraftKings that begins at 2:05 p.m. ET and includes nine games. FanDuel offers an identical slate.

• Fantasy Baseball Research & Advice
• MLB Prop Bet Cheat Sheet
• Daily Projections

Saturday’s Top MLB DFS Picks & Player Props

Saturday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings (5/33)

• Tarik Skubal is about as costly as it gets, but he has still delivered with the way he has pitched lately. He has made five starts this month, covering 34 innings. In those 34 innings, he has 52 strikeouts to a measly two walks.
• Kodai Senga hasn’t pitched enough innings to qualify, but if he did, his 1.46 ERA would lead the National League. Most of his ERA indicators say that it should be closer to 3.00 with how he has pitched. Today’s matchup against the Rockies and their 69 wRC+ against right-handed pitchers is unlikely to start the regression.
• If you are looking to go a bit more thrifty at the pitcher position, consider Slade Cecconi. He had this start pushed back a few days due to groin tightness, but is expected to pitch today against the Angels. It’s only been two starts this season, but so far, Cecconi has 14 strikeouts to only two walks. He has a 36.7% whiff rate, which would be elite if it maintains.

Suggested Lineup Stacks

New York Mets Projected Lineup (5/31)

• The New York Mets are being opposed today by Antonio Senzatela. While Senzatela is certainly getting unlucky with a 65% strand rate, he is also getting pummeled. He is currently in the bottom percentile for both strikeout percentage and expected batting average against. The Mets are a lineup that will take advantage of this matchup.
• Pete Alonso is a good starting point for a Mets stack. He is hitting fly balls at a 36% rate with only a 12% soft contact rate. Hitting the ball hard in the air is a good way to have success in DFS.
• Francisco Alvarez isn’t quite getting the ball in the air as much as Alonso, but when he is hitting, he is still hitting it hard. His fly ball rate of 29.4% is a bit lower than we’re looking for. He’s making even less soft contact than Alonso at only 9%.
• Lastly, we come to the disappointing Juan Soto. Over the past two weeks, he has had an abysmal .391 OPS. Yet, it’s still tempting to play him at this price point with how he has generally contacted the ball. For the season, he is still in the top 10th percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and expected slugging rate. Even over his dismal performance of the last two weeks, he is still hitting the ball the hardest on the team.

Cleveland Guardians Projected Lineup (5/31)

• The Cleveland Guardians are taking on the Los Angeles Angels and starting pitcher Kyle Hendricks. He has a 5.23 ERA, which is fully supported by his underlying data. He is now throwing his fastball only 86 miles per hour (MPH) on average, which makes it tough for him to generate strikeouts. He ranks in the sixth percentile in strikeout rate (14.8%).
• Jose Ramirez is never a bad way to start building your lineup. He has an .828 OPS against right-handed pitchers this season. He currently has a 21-game hitting streak going, and has not had a hit in just one game in May.
• To afford Ramirez, you will need to find some cheaper options. Daniel Schneemann could be that guy. He is a left-handed batter who generally sits against left-handed pitching. However, against right-handed pitching, he has an .836 OPS.
• Ramirez’s hitting streak has overshadowed the production of fellow switch-hitter Carlos Santana. Over the past two weeks, Santana has a 1.099 OPS. All six of his home runs this season have come against a right-handed pitcher. He is also 6-for-18 in his career against Hendricks with three extra-base hits.

Core Studs

• Rafael Devers trails only Cal Raleigh and Aaron Judge in wRC+ in May. He has a difficult matchup with Spencer Schwellenbach, though. Devers is 2-for-5 against him in his career, with both hits being home runs. Earlier this season, Devers hit a grand slam off of Schwellenbach.
• Philadelphia could also be a team to stack if you can find the money. Chad Patrick is the opposing starting pitcher today. He only has a 27.8% ground ball rate, which means there is the potential that the Phillies’ bats hit home runs in bunches against him. If you can only afford one Phillies hitter, why not the one with the hardest hit rate in Kyle Schwarber?
• Ryan O’Hearn has been one of the best batters in all of baseball this season. He has a 1.015 OPS against right-handed pitchers. He’s been even better over the past two weeks with a 1.159 OPS.

Value Plays/Punts

• We just saw Colton Gordon oppose the Tampa Bay Rays two starts ago. He went 5.1 innings and allowed three earned runs with seven strikeouts. Two of his runs came on a home run by Danny Jansen, who has been a left-handed pitching masher this season. He has three home runs and an OPS of .939 against left-handed pitching.
• Would you believe that Miguel Vargas has a .948 OPS in May? It’s true. He also has seven home runs this month. His matchup today is against Dean Kremer, who, while he has been better recently, still has an ERA over 5.00.
• Typically, lefty-on-lefty matchups are something you look to avoid in DFS. But it’s hard to ignore how effective Sal Frelick has been against left-handed pitchers this season. He has a .393 batting average and a .907 OPS against left-handed pitchers. He gets a difficult one today with Jesus Luzardo.

Saturday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props

Tarik Skubal (SP – DET): 6.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Tarik Skubal’s strikeout number is lower than expected given his recent performance. He has had at least eight strikeouts in his last six starts. The lower line is likely because the last time he opposed Kansas City, he only struck out four batters.

As a whole, Kansas City has been a difficult team to strike out this season, with only a 19.1% strikeout rate. It’s a bit higher against left-handed pitchers at 22%.

Zack Littell (SP – TB): 3.5 Strikeouts — Higher

Zack Littell’s strikeout number sits at only 3.5. He has eclipsed that number in three of his last four starts. One of those three starts was against Houston. Just two starts ago, he struck out six Astros.

Kyle Schwarber (OF, DH – PHI): 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBI — Higher

I mentioned above the beneficial matchup Kyle Schwarber has today against Chad Patrick. Schwarber has eclipsed this number in eight of his last 11 games, including his last three.

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