The summer is the time of optimism in fantasy football, and sleepers are always a popular topic for fantasy football pundits and drafters. Still, setting a threshold for qualifying as a sleeper is imperative. The following players are selected in the 12th round or later in Underdog best ball drafts. Finally, there’s a wide gap in the average draft position (ADP) for the forthcoming four players, potentially awarding gamers the freedom to draft all four. Here are four of our favorite fantasy football sleepers to target in best ball drafts.
Fantasy Football Sleepers in Best Ball Drafts
Dalton Kincaid was a popular breakout candidate last offseason. He had tantalizing draft capital as a first-round pick in the 2023 NFL Draft, was attached to Josh Allen, had a path to more opportunities with the Bills trading Stefon Diggs and flashed some potential in his rookie season. Sadly, Kincaid had a sophomore slump, and he’s no longer drafted as a starting (top-12) tight end in Underdog best ball drafts.
Kincaid missed only one game as a rookie but played in only 13 of 17 games in the regular season and all three in the playoffs in 2024. He didn’t get off to a fast start before he was injured in Week 10. So, Kincaid shouldn’t get a complete free pass for last year’s disappointing showing. Nevertheless, he played with a PCL sprain in his left knee and injured his right knee in Week 16. Dr. Kyle Trimble detailed both injuries for Banged Up Bills.
Circling back to Kincaid’s rookie season, he had some intriguing, albeit mixed, underlying data. According to the data suite at Fantasy Points, among 77 tight ends with at least 75 routes in the regular season and postseason in 2023, Kincaid was only 14th in route participation rate (67.7%) but was tied for 12th in target share (16.2%), tied for 15th in targets per route run (0.21), 11th in first-read rate (19.5%), 11th in air yards share (16.5%), tied for ninth in missed tackles forced (11) and tied for 13th in expected half-point per reception (half PPR) points per game (9.6). His underlying data was right in the ballpark with where he’s selected now, and Kincaid was the TE12 in total half PPR points (113.8) and tied for the TE15 in half PPR points per game (7.1) in the 2023 regular season.
Despite the injuries last year, among 76 tight ends with at least 75 routes in 2024, Kincaid was 12th in target share (16.8%), seventh in targets per route run (0.26), tied for 12th in first-read rate (18.3%), seventh in air yards share (18.7%), 16th in expected half PPR points per game (9.0) and tied for fourth in expected half PPR points per route (0.47).
Tight ends frequently take a bit to develop at the NFL level, and Kincaid was saddled with a pair of injuries in the back half of last season. Dawson Knox will likely still be a thorn in Kincaid’s side as a superior inline option at tight end, but the third-year pro’s offseason focus on adding playing strength could allow him to play a bit more this year, which would immensely help his fantasy upside. Kincaid has a high probability of breaking even at his current ADP if he maintains the status quo and stays healthier this year. Still, his untapped potential doesn’t appear to be baked in, making him an appealing sleeper in Underdog best ball drafts.
Dyami Brown (WR – JAC): 190.0 ADP/WR78
Dyami Brown had fewer than 175 receiving yards in each of his first three seasons in the NFL, and he was essentially an afterthought for most of last season. Brown had excellent timing, breaking out at the end of his rookie contract. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Brown didn’t clear 25 routes until Week 15 versus the Saints. Per the data suite at Fantasy Points, Brown had the following stats in Week 15 through Week 17 and the playoffs (I excluded Week 18 because Washington didn’t play their starters for long in a meaningless contest).
- 67.4 route%
- 11.1-yard average depth of target (aDOT)
- 22.9% air yards share
- 14.1% target share
- 0.17 targets per route run
- 16.7% first-read rate
- 5.2 targets per game
- 4.2 receptions per game
- 63 receiving yards per game
- 2.09 yards per route run
- 6.33 yards after the catch per reception
- One receiving touchdown
- Two end-zone targets
- 9.2 half PPR points per game
- 10.5 expected half PPR points per game
Brown was a field-stretching weapon, but also excelled after the catch to close the season. The Jaguars thought enough of Brown to sign him to a one-year deal worth $10 million, with $9.5 million guaranteed, per Over The Cap.
Brian Thomas had an incredible rookie season. The Jaguars also traded up to pick Travis Hunter second in the NFL Draft, and the post-draft rhetoric was that the incoming two-way player would focus on offense first. Still, Hunter has worked at cornerback in Organized Team Activities (OTAs), and any reduction to Hunter’s snaps on offense and route share could enhance Brown’s activity in the passing game.
Moreover, the Jaguars should use a ton of 11-personnel (one running back, one tight end and three wide receivers). Liam Coen was the offensive coordinator for the Rams in 2022, albeit with Sean McVay calling plays. Coen was Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator and play-caller last season. Per Sumer Sports, the Rams had the highest 11-personnel rate (89.21% versus a 59.75% league average) in 2022, and the Buccaneers had the eighth-highest 11-personnel rate (71.21% compared to 60.68% for the league average) in 2024.
Brown’s ceiling isn’t outrageous, but he should have a prominent role in Jacksonville’s offense. Additionally, Brenton Strange isn’t an established, high-volume target earner, and the backfield doesn’t have a stud pass-catching weapon, either. As a result, Brown’s No. 3 wideout gig could be more fruitful than the third spot at wide receiver on many other teams.
I’m not enamored with Brashard Smith and Elijah Mitchell. Instead, I’m elated to bet against Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt. Smith and Mitchell are an enticing pairing on Zero RB or Robust RB squads. Otherwise, mixing exposure by picking one or the other in most Underdog drafts until training camp creates a clearer picture of Kansas City’s backfield pecking order is my preferred way to attack these two sleepers.
Fantasy gamers and many pundits seem to have a more favorable memory of Pacheco’s talent level than the reality of it. I won’t dispute that Pacheco’s production suffered in his return from a fractured fibula he sustained in Week 2 last year. Still, he had 67.5 rushing yards per game, 3.97 yards per carry, 0.12 missed tackles forced per attempt, 1.97 yards after contact per attempt and 2.00 yards before contact per attempt before the injury last season. Among 54 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the regular season and playoffs last year, Pacheco’s yards per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt, yards after contact per attempt and yards before contact per attempt before the injury would have ranked 39th, tied for 40th, tied for 51st and tied for 19th, respectively. Pacheco also didn’t have a single explosive run on 34 attempts in the first two games last season.
Two games aren’t a massive sample. Nevertheless, Pacheco was more like just a guy (JAG) than a game-changing running back in 2023. Among 59 running backs with at least 75 rush attempts in the regular season and postseason in 2023, Pacheco had the following stats, with his rank among the 59 running backs in parentheses.
- 69.3 rushing yards per game (6th)
- 4.36 yards per carry (T-20th)
- 2.46 yards after contact per attempt (T-27th)
- 1.69 yards before contact per attempt (17th)
- 4.5% explosive run rate (T-22nd)
- 0.11 missed tackles forced per attempt (T-54th)
- 46.9 stuff% (30th)
- 46.2% success rate on zone concepts (T-32nd)
- 50.4% success rate on man/gap concepts (19th)
- 10 rushing touchdowns (T-9th)
Pacheco’s rushing value was propped up by volume, yards before contact (which might be more attributable to the blockers in front of him than his rushing ability) and rushing touchdowns.
Pacheco didn’t embarrass himself in the passing game. Yet, he wasn’t a world-beating receiver, either. Smith is a converted wide receiver, and Andy Reid has previously used the explosive pass-catching whiz Jerick McKinnon as the team’s preferred passing-down running back.
In 2022, McKinnon had the following stats.
- 17.6 rushing yards per game
- One rushing touchdown
- 42.4% route participation
- 0.21 targets per route run
- 3.1 receptions per game
- 27.2 receiving yards per game
- 1.52 yards per route run
- Nine receiving touchdowns
- 9.1 half PPR points per game
- 10.0 expected half PPR points per game
If the Chiefs drafted Smith with the McKinnon role in mind, he’d be a nifty last-round pick. Yet, if Smith has a bit more Tyrone Tracy, a fellow converted wide receiver, to his game, he could exceed the 2022 McKinnon contributions.
Mitchell’s path to relevance is as an explosive ball carrier. He missed the entire 2024 season after undergoing hamstring surgery in August. Interestingly, Mitchell agreed to a one-year contract with the Chiefs on March 10, before the club agreed to a one-year deal with Hunt on March 14. In addition, Mitchell’s base salary and guaranteed salary are $1.4 million and $1.1 million, and Hunt’s are $1.25 million and $740k. It might be misguided to split hairs with the timing of signing and the value of the contracts for both running backs, but both could suggest the team was more interested in adding Mitchell than retaining Hunt.
Mitchell’s speed, if he can return to pre-surgery form, would be welcomed in Kansas City’s plodding backfield. Per PFF, Hunt, Pacheco, Samaje Perine and Carson Steele had 15, four, three and zero rushes for 10-plus yards on 228, 96, 21 and 56 rush attempts in 2024. So, they combined for 22 rushes of 10-plus yards on 401 attempts (5.5%). Moreover, they had a comical four rushes (three by Hunt and one by Pacheco) that gained 15-plus yards. Mitchell has 47 rushes for 10-plus yards and 14 for 15-plus yards on 411 career attempts. Therefore, 11.4% of his runs have gone for 10-plus yards, and 3.4% have amassed 15-plus yards. Even at Mitchell’s least efficient in 2023, he had seven rushes for 10-plus yards (8.6%) and two for 15-plus yards (2.5%) on 81 attempts in 2023.
Frankly, the Chiefs could rug pull Underdog drafters by trading for a running back before teams cut down rosters or adding one after some hit the market at the end of the summer. Still, Pacheco’s success story as a seventh-round pick in the 2022 NFL Draft is a valid reason to believe Smith could carve out a fantasy-relevant role as a seventh-round pick in this year’s NFL Draft in Kansas City’s underwhelming backfield. Finally, the club’s willingness to sign Hunt off the scrap heap last year and lean on him heavily is encouraging for Mitchell’s potential to contribute this year if he performs well at training camp or in the preseason.
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Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
