A fantasy football draft is rarely won or lost in the first or second round. Those players should be anchors, the reliable pieces of your roster that provide a strong baseline of points throughout a fantasy football season. The best way to win a league is to be the smartest guy in the room when it comes to drafting late talent that can return early-round value.
The other side of that coin is recognizing which players to avoid as the draft moves into the middle and later rounds. These players go in wildly different places depending on what site you draft on, but our analysis seeks to help you pinpoint undervalued and overvalued players on every fantasy football platform. This monthly series will look at Fantrax to identify players to draft and players to avoid.
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Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on Fantrax
The 2025 NFL and fantasy football season will be here before we know it, but even early in the summer, managers are starting to draft their leagues or participate in mock drafts. Analyzing those drafts is an interesting exercise when there is relatively little news, but other clues can point us to whether players are undervalued or overvalued as we enter prime draft season. Beginning that homework now will give us an advantage when the masses come around in August.
Gaining that edge now means looking where players are being drafted on different sites. Comparing those values to FantasyPros’ expert consensus ranks (ECR) is an easy way to gauge players who seem overpriced early in the summer. Here are four overvalued players according to early Fantrax average draft position (ADP).
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) | ADP: 27.6/ECR: 31
What does Rashod Bateman‘s 2024 reason have to do with Tyreek Hill and his fantasy prospects for 2025? Well, the Baltimore Ravens’ newly wealthy receiver just signed a three-year, $36.75 million contract after catching 45 passes for 756 yards and nine touchdowns.
Looking at Tyreek Hill’s falloff from 2023 to 2024, Hill lost 38 receptions, 840 yards and seven touchdowns between those two seasons. Essentially, Hill lost a whole Rashod Bateman season’s worth of production after the worst year of his career.
Now, a lot of that had to do with quarterback play. Tua Tagovailoa missed six games after another series of concussions. The Miami backups were not capable of floating Hill up to the elite level he has been at from 2017-2023. Will that flip in 2025 with Tua still an injury risk and Tyreek Hill now turning 32 years old during the season?
It’s certainly possible, and we know Hill has had seasons where he is better than the 17th pick in a draft. But I just don’t think it’s likely. I would rather not spend a third-round pick on Hill and miss out on players in whom I am more confident, such as Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Chase Brown.
DJ Moore (WR – CHI) | ADP: 35.3/ECR: 41
DJ Moore’s 2025 is the definitive case study on just how impactful a quarterback (and offensive scheme) can be on a star wide receiver. In 2023, Moore finished (17 games) with 96 receptions on 136 targets. In 2024 (17 games), he racked up 98 receptions on 140 targets. Two carbon copy seasons from the perspective of those numbers.
However, in 2023, Moore had 1,364 yards, eight scores and 80.2 yards per game. The 2024 season only ended with 966 yards, six scores and 56.8 yards per game. The shift from Justin Fields to Caleb Williams was a devastating one for Moore’s WR1 status.
Some of that had to do with increased competition from Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze. Allen is gone, but Odunze is looking for a sophomore bump. The Bears also drafted Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland, and the team is adjusting to a new coaching staff under Ben Johnson.
Williams’ second year, with a completely rebuilt offensive line, should be much better. But pick 35 is one you have to get right, and Moore presents too much risk (and internal competition) compared to guys like Terry McLaurin and Garrett Wilson to take that chance earlier than pick 40.
Travis Hunter (WR – JAX) | ADP: 57.2/ECR: 72
I am in love with Travis Hunter’s athleticism, ball-hawk ability and his strength as a wide receiver. He will find his way onto many of my fantasy teams this season, but considering some of the unknowns and the uncertainty around his playing time, the price is just a bit too steep on Fantrax as we enter the summer.
Hunter is going a full 15 picks ahead of ECR right now, and checks in on Fantrax as the WR31. At that price, he needs to be a surefire, can’t-miss wide receiver starter or Flex play. I have faith that he will be, but the opportunity cost is too high.
Players that go ahead of Hunter in that range that would be hard to pass over are receivers Jordan Addison and Xavier Worthy and running backs Aaron Jones, Tony Pollard and TreVeyon Henderson.
One could argue Hunter’s upside is higher than every one of those players, but I’m going to need to see it first before I buy into Hunter as a fifth-round asset. Trevor Lawrence was able to elevate Brian Thomas Jr. last year, but can he do it with two receivers? It’s a gamble that fantasy managers will have to determine if they are willing to take.
Cooper Kupp (WR – SEA) | ADP: 85.6/ECR: 109
We can’t overlook the fact that Cooper Kupp, in many ways, was the face of the Los Angeles Rams’ offense, and they just decided to let him go this offseason. No contract extension. No trade talks. They didn’t worry about a compensatory draft pick. The Rams decided they had what they needed with Matthew Stafford, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams and Kyren Williams. Kupp eventually signed with Seattle.
Seattle’s offense is almost completely turned over from 2024. Gone are Geno Smith, Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. Replacing them are Kupp and Sam Darnold. There are 182 vacated targets from Metcalf and Lockett, and those have to go somewhere, but it’s not that targets were the issue with Kupp in his decline year in 2024, but what he did with those targets.
Kupp’s yards per reception, yards per target and success rate all declined last year. Add in the fact that Kupp has missed at least five games in three straight years, and paying a top-85 pick seems too high on Fantrax when other rankers have him going after pick 100.
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