Tonight’s MLB DFS main slate starts at 6:40 p.m. ET at DraftKings and FanDuel and has five games at the former and four at the latter. The suggested pick ’em choices from Underdog are also from the night’s contests.
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet 
Today’s MLB DFS & Player Props Picks
Thursday’s Starting Pitcher Rankings
Max Fried (NYY) vs. CLE
Max Fried is having a sensational first season in pinstripes. According to FanGraphs, Fried has had the following stats in a dozen starts spanning 75 innings this year.
- 1.92 ERA
- 3.62 xERA
- 3.23 xFIP
- 3.33 SIERA
- 0.97 WHIP
- Eight wins
- Seven quality starts
- 5.4 BB%
- 23.4 K%
- 51.2 GB%
- 108 stuff+
- 104 location+
- 112 pitching+
Fried’s matchup tonight is favorable, and so is his betting info. The Guardians are 23rd in wRC+ (76) with a 25.4 K% versus lefties and tied for 12th in wRC+ (99) with a 20.4 K% on the road in 2025. they were also 18th in wRC+ (97) with a 21.2 K% in the previous 30 days. So, the Yankees are -265, and the game’s total is 8.5 runs.
Framber Valdez (HOU) at PIT
Framber Valdez is in a groove. In his previous five starts spanning 37 innings, he’s had a 1.70 ERA, 2.64 xFIP, 2.67 SIERA, 0.84 WHIP, four wins, five quality starts, a 6.6 BB%, 26.5 K% and 66.7 GB%. The lefty also had an 11.6 SwStr%, 31.2 CSW%, 105 stuff+, 112 location+ and 120 pitching+ during his heater, validating the results.
Valdez has a drool-inducing matchup tonight. The Pirates are 26th in wRC+ (71) with a 27.0 K% versus lefties and tied for 24th in wRC+ (84) with a 22.6 K% at home this season. They haven’t turned things around, either. Instead, Pittsburgh is 29th in wRC+ (78) with a 24.3 K% in the previous 30 days. Thus, the Astros are -162, and the game’s total is 7.5 runs.
Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs. KC
Matthew Liberatore is an intriguing SP2 in GPPs on DraftKings. In 70 innings at home since 2024, Liberatore has had a 2.83 ERA, 3.19 xFIP, 1.01 WHIP, 4.7 BB% and 23.9 K%. Liberatore is also enjoying a breakout campaign as a starter and is in good form entering tonight.
He should continue to pitch well in a plus matchup tonight. The Royals are 28th in wRC+ (62) with a 22.5 K% versus lefties and tied for 19th in wRC+ (92) with a 20.4 K% on the road this year. Kansas City was also 25th in wRC+ (85) with an 18.4 K% in the previous 30 days. Moreover, the Royals could rest a starter or two tonight since this is the second game of a doubleheader. Finally, the Cardinals are -118, and the game’s total is a pitcher-friendly 7.5 runs.
Suggested Lineup Stacks
Jack Leiter‘s four-leaf clover will eventually lose its luck. The 25-year-old righty’s 3.66 ERA in nine starts this year is markedly lower than his 4.72 xERA, 4.93 xFIP and 4.94 SIERA. Additionally, he’s coughed up a .322 wOBA to 173 lefties and a .332 wOBA to 194 righties since reaching the Majors last year, making him an appealing pitcher to stack against with Tampa Bay’s left-handed and right-handed batters.
- Road (PNC Park)
- Game Total/Moneyline: 7.5 Runs/HOU -162
I don’t love stacking the Astros tonight. However, two of Houston’s hitters are appealing punts, mixing in another one or two more Astros for correlation on a small slate is intriguing. Mitch Keller‘s 3.73 ERA in 12 starts this year is solid if unspectacular, but it’s also better than his 4.02 xERA, 3.92 xFIP and 4.08 SIERA. He’s also at the mercy of batted balls and batters taking strikes with only an 18.9 K% and 7.7 SwStr%. As a result, the Astros can get the better of him tonight.
Core Studs
- Jonathan Aranda has hit seven homers with 30 runs, 32 RBIs, a .414 OBP, .182 ISO and 169 wRC+ in 210 plate appearances this season.
- In Brandon Lowe‘s previous 84 plate appearances, he’s clobbered seven round-trippers with 19 runs, 15 RBIs, one stolen base, a .405 OBP, .346 ISO and 217 wRC+.
- Junior Caminero has launched 14 longballs with 32 runs, 38 RBIs, four stolen bases, a .289 OBP, .249 ISO and 124 wRC+ in 235 plate appearances this season.
Value Plays/Punts
- Cam Smith is having an adequate rookie campaign, with three homers, 18 runs, 17 RBIs, two stolen bases, a .330 OBP, .119 ISO and 102 wRC+ in 179 plate appearances. An average hitter, such as Smith, is a reasonable punt on this specific slate.
- In 80 career plate appearances against lefties since reaching The Show in 2023, Nick Loftin has had a .363 OBP and 105 wRC+.
- Victor Caratini has hit 16 bombs with a .327 OBP, .140 ISO and 104 wRC+ in 496 plate appearances against righties since 2023.
Thursday’s Top 3 Underdog Player Props
Check out our best picks on the MLB Underdog Cheat Sheet
Michael Busch: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
Michael Busch has 51 hits, 27 runs, 36 RBIs, a .276 batting average, .263 expected batting average (xBA), .374 OBP, .238 ISO and 151 wRC+ in 214 plate appearances this season. He has a plus matchup tonight. Jake Irvin has allowed a .251 batting average, .311 OBP and .457 SLG to 574 left-handed batters since last year. We project Busch to have 1.21 hits, 0.66 runs and 0.64 RBIs tonight.
Brandon Lowe: 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs – Higher (Underdog)
Lowe has exceeded 1.5 hits plus runs and RBIs in 11 of his last 13 starts and 15 of 19. He also hammers righties. In 905 plate appearances against right-handed pitching since 2023, Lowe has tallied 200 hits, a .248 batting average, .324 OBP and .228 ISO.
Corey Seager: 6.5 Fantasy Points – Higher (Underdog)
Corey Seager has been extremely unlucky this year. In 132 plate appearances in 2025, he’s had a .258 batting average, .294 xBA, .435 SLG and .556 expected slugging (xSLG). Moreover, he’s had a .391 OBP, .283 ISO and 168 wRC+ against righties since 2023.
Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at FantasyPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.
