We’ll have you covered as you prepare for your 2025 dynasty rookie drafts. In order to dominate your dynasty rookie draft, check out our expert consensus dynasty draft rankings. And sync your dynasty league to practice with fast and free dynasty rookie and startup mock drafts. Below, we dive into dynasty draft picks our analysts are lower on compared to our expert consensus rankings.
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Dynasty Draft Advice: Players to Avoid
Let’s call a spade a spade here. Caleb Williams had a VERY tough rookie season. The ballyhooed savior of the Windy City didn’t exactly have the start to his career that many people hoped for and hyped. Williams was the QB21 in fantasy points per game, which was aided greatly by his legs (seventh in rushing yards among quarterbacks). Williams was the QB12 in expected fantasy points per game, so the disappointment was very real. When we discuss what he did as a passer, the true tragedy becomes apparent. Last year, among 40 qualifying quarterbacks, Williams ranked 34th in yards per attempt, 24th in CPOE, and 26th in highly accurate throw rate (per Fantasy Points Data). Williams had the ninth-highest off-target rate and the second-lowest catchable target rate (only Anthony Richardson was worse). The Bears have added a TON of personnel to help Williams find his footing in year two with offensive line upgrades, a strong play-caller (Ben Johnson), and the additions of Luther Burden and Colston Loveland. I do believe Williams will take a step forward, but the real question is how much. Williams is best viewed as a dice roll QB2.
– Derek Brown
Undoubtedly, a consensus RB1 in 2025 will be Saquon Barkley after arguably the greatest season we have ever seen from the position. Over 2,000 rushing yards as the only skill player to average more than 20 points per game in half-PPR. He led the NFL in touches with nearly 500…running effectively behind the league’s best OL. But as was the case with Christian McCaffrey last season…leading the NFL in touches by such a vast margin is essentially the kiss of death for running backs the following year. Only two RBs finished as RB1s the following year after leading the NFL in touches since 2013. Ezekiel Elliott is the only one over that period to finish inside the top 5.
– Andrew Erickson
It feels like Groundhog Day all over again – another offseason, another round of analysts fading Kyren Williams. But this year, the concerns are more justified, in the last year of William’s rookie contract. Despite a monster workload in 2024 (nearly 400 touches, 87% snap share, both second to only Saquon Barkley), Williams was wildly inefficient – ranking near the bottom in explosive run rate, missed tackles, and YAC per attempt (akin to Najee Harris‘ numbers in 2024) with fumbles to boot. The Rams spent legit draft capital on Blake Corum in 2023 (who Sean McVay thinks is a stud) and Jarquez Hunter in 2024 (who the Rams traded up for) while publicly embracing the NFL trends of a more committee-driven backfield approach this offseason. Williams could still deliver RB1 numbers on sheer volume alone, but if that volume even slightly dips, it will be tough for him to live up to his ADP.
– Andrew Erickson
Brian Robinson is a solid if unspectacular early-down back. The real appeal is that he plays in an ascendant offense with what should be a pretty good offensive line. Robinson also benefits from playing with QB Jayden Daniels, since mobile QBs tend to boost the efficiency of their running backs. But Robinson doesn’t offer much as a pass catcher — he had 20 receptions in 14 games last year — and will give way to Austin Ekeler on passing downs. And don’t discount the possibility that intriguing seventh-round draft pick Jacorey Croskey-Merritt could threaten B-Rob’s workload.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Tracy Jr. took over as the Giants’ starting back in Week 5 last season and never looked back. Well, he did have some bumps in the road with fumbles. Tracy Jr. finished with the 23rd-most touches among running backs last year, but he was tied for the third-most fumbles at the position. New York decided to address their backfield in the draft with the addition of Cam Skattebo. Skattebo could push Tracy Jr. aside if he’s not careful. Skattebo had four fumbles last year in college. Still, four fumbles scattered across 338 collegiate touches is a different conversation than five with 230 touches last year, which is what happened with Tracy Jr. Tracy Jr. was explosive with his touches last year, ranking 16th in explosive run rate and 20th in missed tackles forced per attempt (per Fantasy Points Data). The Giants may roll out a frustrating thunder and lightning committee in 2025, which would be the best-case scenario for Tracy Jr. because I don’t see Skattebo going away.
– Derek Brown
Amon-Ra St. Brown delivered another elite season in 2024, finishing as the WR3 in both total and per-game scoring while leading the NFL in red-zone receptions. However, he did outperform his expected fantasy output (14.6 expected points per game, WR18), and his target share dipped to 23% over the final seven games as Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta gained steam. With Ben Johnson gone and increased competition for targets, there’s reason to be cautious about repeating a top-5 finish – but St. Brown’s talent and chemistry with Jared Goff keep his floor securely in WR1 territory.
– Andrew Erickson
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. didn’t come close to living up to the hype in his rookie season. Harrison Jr. finished as the WR39 in fantasy points per game and the WR27 in expected fantasy points per game. After such a disappointing first year, we’re left wondering, entering year two, “Can Harrison live up to last year’s hype and breakout in 2025?” I’ll start by saying I’m doubtful, and I’ll likely remain below consensus on him entering the year, but there’s a pathway for it to happen. Ok, let’s get back to 2024. In Weeks 1-9, Arizona deployed Harrison Jr. primarily as a downfield receiver, with only 29.9% of his routes being horizontal breaking routes and 49.6% of them being vertical breaking routes. In that sample, he drew a 21.4% target share (32nd) with 49.4 receiving yards per game (43rd), a 28.2% first-read share (29th), 0.093 first downs per route run (36th), and 1.97 yards per route run (38th, per Fantasy Points Data). This was a horrible game plan by Arizona’s coaching staff. Last year, Harrison Jr. ranked 84th and 51st in vertical route-breaking separation and route win rate as opposed to 16th and 19th in those categories when it came to horizontal-breaking routes. The good thing for Harrison Jr. is in Weeks 10-18, his horizontal route % climbed to 41.4%, while vertical breaking routes made up 38.5% of his usage. The problem is that in Weeks 10-18, his numbers didn’t improve; instead, they actually worsened with the usage change. He had a 20.6% target share (33rd), 55 receiving yards per game (37th), a 27.1% first-read share, 0.078 first downs per route run, and 1.56 yards per route run. His late-season usage and per-route numbers with horizontal routes offer hope, but his declining efficiency with the usage change muddies the 2025 waters. Harrison is a tough player to get excited about, given his usage and efficiency are in question, and there are no concrete answers to suggest we should expect better results moving forward.
– Derek Brown
The Packers made a forward-thinking move by drafting Matthew Golden in Round 1, adding speed (4.29 40-yard dash) and depth to a wide receiver room full of question marks. With Christian Watson‘s injury history and Romeo Doubs in a contract year following multiple concussions, Golden brings much-needed insurance, but he may not be fantasy-relevant right away. Despite a productive final season at Texas, Golden never topped 1,000 yards or posted a high dominator rating in college, and he enters a crowded WR committee in a scheme that avoids funneling targets to one player. Golden’s likely to have splash plays and spike weeks, but consistent volume may be elusive unless injuries strike.
– Andrew Erickson
Jayden Reed led the Packers in receptions (55) and receiving yards (857) last season, but it’s hard to think of him as Green Bay’s lead receiver when you consider that he had a 63% snap share in 2024 and typically wasn’t on the field when the Packers used two-receiver sets. The Packers drafted WR Matthew Golden in the first round of this year’s draft, and third-round WR Savion Williams could potentially be used on the sort of gadget plays that Packers head coach Matt LaFleur has been drawing up for Reed the last two years.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Tyler Warren posted absurd numbers for Penn State in 2024, with 104 catches, 1,233 yards and eight touchdowns. He has an angry playing style reminiscent of Georget Kittle. Warren is not easy to tackle. The Colts landed Warren with the 14th overall pick of the draft. It seems like a suboptimal landing spot given the Colts’ uncertainty at quarterback. But Warren did some damage as a runner last year at Penn State, adding 218 rushing yards and four TD runs. That’s one possible way for Warren to pad his value. But it’s probably best to temper expectations for Warren in his rookie season.
– Pat Fitzmaurice
Here are our latest Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings from our consensus of fantasy football experts. You can find the latest Dynasty Rookie Draft Rankings and sync your fantasy football league for specific advice.
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