Since we last checked in on best ball fantasy football average draft position (ADP), there have been significant rises and falls. We’ve seen trades, contract extensions, rookie holdouts and more. All of it is combining to shift the best ball landscape as we approach the most volatile time of year, training camp. These are the biggest ADP fantasy football risers and fallers on Underdog.
Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Best Ball Risers
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) | ADP: 112 (+36)
Last time we checked in at the end of June, J.K. Dobbins went from being a free agent to a thorn in the side of RJ Harvey bag-holders. And since then, he’s risen another three rounds. Yes, Harvey is still likely to be the more productive back in this backfield, but Broncos beat reporters are all in line that this backfield will be a committee and Dobbins will be the likely third-down back and start with the goal-line role.
Since we last checked in on best ball fantasy football average draft position (ADP), there have been significant rises and falls. We’ve seen trades, contract extensions, rookie holdouts and more. All of it is combining to shift the best ball landscape as we approach the most volatile time of year, training camp. These are the biggest ADP fantasy football risers and fallers on Underdog.
Fantasy Football Risers & Fallers
Best Ball Risers
J.K. Dobbins (RB – DEN) | ADP: 112 (+36)
Last time we checked in at the end of June, J.K. Dobbins went from being a free agent to a thorn in the side of RJ Harvey bag-holders. And since then, he’s risen another three rounds. Yes, Harvey is still likely to be the more productive back in this backfield, but Broncos beat reporters are all in line that this backfield will be a committee and Dobbins will be the likely third-down back and start with the goal-line role.
Dobbins ranked fourth in Pro Football Focus’ (PFF) pass block grades last year, which is a noteworthy point when many rookies come into the league lacking in that department. Dobbins’ injury history is, of course, hard to ignore, but so too is the fact he set career highs in rushing attempts (195), rushing yards (905), yards per game (69.6), targets (38) and receptions (32).
One of the more surprising names we’ve seen elevated comes from the Browns’ backfield on the back of disturbing and disappointing news surrounding Quinshon Judkins. The Browns and the NFL will have to figure out how that impacts things in the coming months, but many are assuming a 4-6 game suspension could be possible for Judkins, which would open a massive door for Dylan Sampson to establish a role.
Sampson was an interesting addition as the lightning to Judkins’ thunder, and it remains to be seen if he can operate as a lead back, with most fourth-round rookies not necessarily able to do so. At the moment, his cost isn’t such that we need to worry about that too greatly. Jerome Ford is also up two rounds in ADP, but is barely being drafted. Ford likely now has a role over the opening months that’s slightly more reliable. He can be paired with other rookie running backs like TreVeyon Henderson and RJ Harvey, who may have to earn their role as the season progresses.
Who saw this one coming? It’s fair to say nobody was drafting Darren Waller, and it wouldn’t have been surprising if he wasn’t even in the player pool of most drafts. The Dolphins needed a pass-catching tight end in the wake of Jonnu Smith‘s departure to Pittsburgh, and Waller was a cheap and easy acquisition.
Waller managed a combined six touchdowns over his last 32 games since his breakout 2020, and rarely looked the same since. He’s a low-cost, high-upside swing for the Dolphins, and the same applies for us in best ball. Given how bad the defense in Miami could be, taking shots at their pass-catchers isn’t the worst idea.
Another backfield that’s becoming slightly clearer in its murkiness is the Jaguars, where Travis Etienne seems primed to be the No. 1 RB once again. Last year, Tank Bigsby had a higher yards per carry, big run rate and a better juke rate, while also finishing six spots higher than Etienne as the RB33.
Bhayshul Tuten has also been added to the mix, meaning this might be a backfield with massive opportunity or one with limited ceiling, as all three mix in.
Last year, Tucker Kraft led the Packers with seven touchdowns, which was only one fewer than George Kittle (eight) and three fewer than Mark Andrews (10). Kraft was a yards-after-the-catch (YAC) monster, leading all tight ends with 50+ targets at a whopping 9.38 yards YAC. No other tight end had more than seven.
If the Packers can be a more well-rounded offense with the addition of Matthew Golden, there’s no reason it couldn’t help Kraft elevate to the next level, and his current ADP puts him at a discount of TE11, compared to the TE8 season he just accomplished. His rise is likely due to people waking up and smelling the beautiful coffee Kraft is pouring out.
Best Ball Fallers
There still seems to be a level of confidence that Jonnu Smith could be the lead tight end in the Steelers’ mediocre offense, but that seems to be based on nothing more than the outlier season he put up seven years into his career. Last season was the first time Smith surpassed 600 yards or 50 receptions in a year and only the second time he’d been above four touchdowns. Much is being made of him reuniting with Arthur Smith, but their previous endeavours together weren’t rich and bountiful for fantasy football, so why should this one be?
Furthermore, we know this offense is going to run through what Aaron Rodgers wants, and would it be that surprising if he leaned towards Pat Freiermuth as his preferred target? Freiermuth is also down 47 spots to a point where he’s now going nearly undrafted at 210. Given the choice, the cheaper option might prove better, but the Steelers’ pass-catchers are a situation we don’t need to subject ourselves to.
Reports out of Raiders mini-camp had Dont’e Thornton running ahead of Jack Bech with the first team offense and suggesting that Bech has struggled in his rookie offseason. When training camp opens in a few days, we’ll soon know whether Bech has done enough off the field to reverse that trend. If he has, we can expect the slide to stop.
Another sliding rookie is Kyle Williams, who, according to reports, has failed to live up to the hype best ball drafters were giving him. Again, it’s worth remembering that pads have yet to be put on and Williams could easily reverse that trend, given the paucity of options in New England.
The arrest of Quinshon Judkins surrounding a domestic violence accusation has seen him plummet over one round already, and it shouldn’t be surprising if that continues to be a trend. Judkins was a good prospect, but if he’s suspended for three to six games and has to battle for touches when he returns, is he worth a top-100 pick? Time will tell.
As training camp gets closer, the question moves from when will Keenan Allen sign to will Keenan Allen sign? It wouldn’t be surprising if something happened soon, but it’s a clear indicator that Allen’s market hasn’t exactly been thriving.
The Travis Hunter debates will continue for some time yet, and it’s easy to skip forward to Week 2 and imagine one side of the debate victory lapping while the other side gets their turn by Week 5. Either way, if the Jaguars continue to hint at a two-way role, Hunter will be one of the most volatile assets in fantasy football.
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