In June, the most overpriced players in NFFC (National Fantasy Football Championship) fantasy football average draft position (ADP) were Isaiah Likely, Saquon Barkley and Joe Burrow. Now, the most overpriced players on NFFC are… probably still those same three guys, as their ADPs haven’t moved much (to be fair, both Burrow and Barkley have fallen).
I am on the hunt to find some new players to avoid in your high-stakes NFFC drafts. As always, I’ll be using FantasyPros’ expert consensus rankings (ECR) to help find likely candidates. Let’s get started.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on NFFC
Jared Goff (QB – DET) | NFFC ADP: 85/ECR: 97
A 12-pick difference in overall ADP is significant in the middle rounds, but it’s not massive. What stands out about Goff is his positional ADP. FantasyPros ECR has him ranked as a high-end QB2 at QB14. NFFC drafters are selecting him as the QB9, a locked-in QB1.
That’s a massive difference, as Goff is leapfrogging over five other members of the loaded mid-round quarterback window in this year’s drafts. Specifically, NFFC drafters are selecting Goff ahead of Kyler Murray, Justin Fields, Caleb Williams, Brock Purdy, and Justin Herbert, all of whom are ranked higher in ECR.
It’s clear what’s happening here. NFFC managers are accounting for the fact that the platform awards six points per passing touchdown instead of the traditional four. This is a boost to the value of pocket passers on good offenses (like Goff) and a hit to the value of mobile quarterbacks (all of the names he passed have at least marginal rushing upside). However, this difference is being overcounted.
For one, we can’t just expect Goff to repeat the 37 passing touchdowns he racked up in 2024. Even if everything was the same in Detroit’s offense, his 6.9% touchdown rate is due for some negative regression. And everything is not the same for the Lions, who lost highly touted offensive coordinator Ben Johnson this offseason. Goff is very unlikely to throw for 37 touchdowns again, or even any number particularly close to it. And you don’t just have to take my word for it: Mike Clay’s 2025 projections have the former first-overall pick projected for just 26 passing touchdowns.
Meanwhile, three of the five players Goff has been moved ahead of — Purdy, Williams and Herbert — are projected for just one fewer passing touchdown. Is that two-point projected difference really that valuable? Even compared to the passing-challenged Fields, who is projected for a miserable 17 touchdown throws, Goff only gains 18 projected points over the entire season thanks to the switch to six-point touchdowns.
Is that enough to result in a nearly three-round change in their relative ADPs compared to ECR? I don’t think so, but it also doesn’t matter in this case. You don’t have to take Fields instead, but let someone else in your NFFC draft chase Goff’s regression-bound touchdown total up the board.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC) | NFFC ADP: 47/ECR: 64
This one is tough for me, as I do like Xavier Worthy. A former first-round pick with game-breaking speed coming off a promising rookie year and catching passes from Patrick Mahomes, Worthy’s upside is enormous, and he’s higher than his consensus ranking of WR32 in my rankings. But I’m still nowhere near as high on Worthy as NFFC drafters, who are selecting him as the WR23 in the fourth round of drafts.
Worthy’s upside is tantalizing, but we also have to consider the downside. He finished ranked 59th among qualified receivers in yards per route run last season, even including his impressive postseason. And that impressive postseason (and his overall strong finish to the year) comes with one huge asterisk: It all happened without Rashee Rice on the field. In three games played with Rice, Worthy averaged just 10.0 PPR points on 3.7 targets per game (a 12% target share).
To be fair to Worthy, those were the first three games of his NFL career. It’s very plausible that the then-21-year-old rookie would have started slow and finished strong even with Rice healthy. Unfortunately, his usage down the stretch indicates otherwise.
Worthy first played over 80% of the Chiefs’ offensive snaps in Week 14, and remained above that mark for the rest of the season (not including his Week 18 rest) and throughout Kansas City’s Super Bowl run. In those weeks, he averaged an excellent 19.9 PPR points per game on a 23.8% target share. But he did it on a steady diet of designed touches and short-game yards after the catch (YAC) opportunities, with just a 6.5 aDOT average depth target (aDOT). He had an 11.9 aDOT before Week 14.
Those short-game touches that Worthy feasted on are exactly the touches that Rice (4.8 aDOT in 2024 and 4.9 aDOT in 2023) commanded before his injury. And the third-year receiver is reportedly set to be fully healthy and without a suspension to begin the 2025 season. Of course, there’s a chance the Chiefs simply continue to feed their 2024 first-rounder over their 2023 second-rounder.
Considering both players’ profiles, it seems more likely that Rice reclaims the lion’s share of the underneath work while Worthy returns to his early-season role as a deep threat. And it’s very clear which role is more valuable for full-PPR fantasy, especially as long as Mahomes is doing his best Gardner Minshew impression with a 6.7-yard aDOT.
As I keep stressing, Worthy’s upside is massive, and there are plenty of possible outcomes where he ends up being a smash pick even at his elevated price. But considering his full range of outcomes with Rice healthy and back on the field, his NFFC ADP is simply too high. I recommend you let someone else in your league take that bet; if Worthy turns into Tyreek Hill 2.0, feel free to send me an angry message.
Keenan Allen (WR — FA) | NFFC ADP: 178/ECR: 231
Honestly, this one doesn’t need much explaining. Allen is 33 years old and coming off easily the worst season of his career. After hovering around an 85 Pro Football Focus (PFF) Grade for most of his career, including multiple truly elite seasons, he posted a 64.4 last season, 73rd among qualified receivers. More importantly, he’s still not on an NFL roster. Last we heard from the veteran, he only wanted to remain in Chicago or return to LA, where he spent the majority of his career. If he gets his wish, none of the Bears, Chargers or Rams would be a particularly exciting landing spot. If not, it wouldn’t be at all shocking if Allen simply retired.
And although his ADP isn’t exactly in the first few rounds, pick 178 is not negligible draft capital in a format as deep as NFFC. The next player after Allen in ADP is Roschon Johnson, a very valuable handcuff with the potential to carve out standalone value in Ben Johnson’s revamped offense.
I wouldn’t say that Allen is entirely undraftable at this point in NFFC’s massive 20-round drafts. But that handful of leagues that did ignore him completely are a whole lot closer to correct than whichever manager drafted him at his 118th overall minimum pick. Unless he falls multiple rounds past this ADP, don’t click Allen’s name in your high-stakes draft… and even if he does, maybe consider drafting someone who is actually on an NFL roster instead.
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Ted Chmyz is a fantasy football contributor for FantasyPros.com. Find him on Twitter and Bluesky @Tchmyz for more fantasy content or to ask questions.
