With how deep the wide receiver position in fantasy football tends to be, finding a diamond in the rough a bit later in drafts can usually pay off.
That said, like any position, there are always those players you want to tend to avoid, typically due to their average draft position (ADP) and what their value will be by the end of the season.
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Wide Receiver Busts to Avoid: Overvalued Fantasy Football Picks
Below are three wide receivers you should avoid in fantasy football drafts.
Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA)
For the wide receivers that are set to go in the range of Tyreek Hill, he’s the one I’m most concerned with. One of Hill’s many strengths is his speed, and as he crosses into his 30s, he’s certainly not going to get any faster. Last season, Hill played 17 games and caught 81 passes on 123 targets for 959 yards and six touchdowns.
Hill hasn’t posted figures that low since 2019, when he played just 12 games. You might think, “Well, Tua Tagovailoa was out; that certainly hurt him.” Sure, but from Weeks 8-16, when Tagovailoa was in the lineup, Hill was the WR16, which is below his current ADP of WR12.
Hill also averaged 14.6 points per game, which was good enough for WR24 in that span. Add in that Hill is older and Tagovailoa is one bad hit from missing extended time. This is just a potentially volatile situation when there are players like Trey McBride and Garrett Wilson going around where Hill is being drafted.
Rashee Rice (WR – KC)
In my piece “Identifying the Next WR1s,” I listed Rashee Rice. Of course, while I certainly think that’s doable, there have since been updates concerning Rice’s legal situation. He was sentenced to 30 days in jail and five years’ probation. With the legal proceedings over, the NFL could look to suspend Rice at any moment. It’s unclear if it’ll be this year or next year, or how long the suspension will be.
Thankfully, at the time of writing this, we’re in July. Most redraft leagues happen closer to the season, so we could get more information between now and then. For now, Rice is a hard sell with so many questions looming. We wouldn’t want another situation like former Dallas Cowboys running back Ezekiel Elliott in 2017. That season, he was suspended in August, appealed, and had to serve the suspension in Week 10 and through key playoff weeks.
Based on Rice’s crime, there’s no knowing how many games he’ll be suspended for.
Brandon Aiyuk (WR – SF)
This one is quite simple: Right now, there’s no timeline for Brandon Aiyuk’s return to action after tearing his ACL and MCL in Week 7 last season.
Right now, Aiyuk is going as the WR47, and while that may seem quite inexpensive, it could lead to a game of keeping him on your injured reserve (IR) or bench and just waiting for him to hopefully come back.
We do know that he’s likely to begin the season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list, so there’s already that variable to be aware of. When it comes to an injury like this, sometimes it’s not worth the headache to chase the dragon of what Aiyuk could potentially be in this offense, where he’d be the clear-cut No. 1 WR with Deebo Samuel traded.
Maybe when we get closer to the season, but I’m avoiding Aiyuk for the time being.
