The quarterback position is one where players often aim to secure one of the top players, such as Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson, or wait and hope to find a value signal-caller. However, there are those times where you may be going down the average draft position (ADP) list and consider adding a top-12 option over filling up other roster slots.
At those spots, there’s typically still some value available, including wide receivers in PPR leagues, that you should look to instead. To help you avoid that potentially happening, I’ll take a look at the top 12 quarterbacks, per ADP, and tell you which quarterbacks will bust at their current value.
Let’s dive in.
- Fantasy Football Rankings
- Fantasy Football ADP
- 2025 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Busts: Quarterbacks
Patrick Mahomes (QB – KC)
Patrick Mahomes is going as the QB6 right now, and I’m not too sure how anyone can expect him to live up to that billing. Last season, from Weeks 1 to 17, he averaged 18.3 fantasy points per game, which was good enough for QB11. He finished with 293 total points, which was good enough for QB10.
This season, he has pretty much the same team around him. Sure, Rashee Rice is healthy, but he could be suspended at any time. I’m a fan of rookie Jalen Royals, but he’s not elevating this team on his own. The Chiefs also have a worse offensive line. I love first-round rookie Josh Simmons, but he’s recovering from a serious knee injury.
An ADP of QB6? After throwing for 27 touchdowns in 2023 and 26 last season?
I just don’t see it.
Baker Mayfield (QB – TB)
Right now, Baker Mayfield is going as the QB7 with the No. 73 overall pick. This puts him right around the beginning of the seventh round. This is getting into the WR3/RB3 territory, which could provide some value. As for Mayfield himself, there are question marks for the team around him, too.
Chris Godwin is still recovering from an injury, and Mike Evans is another year older. The Buccaneers drafted Emeka Egbuka, which will be massive, but they also have a great running game with Bucky Irving.
Last season, Mayfield crushed his touchdown numbers, throwing 41 of them. Before last season, he never had more than 28 in a season. He threw 28 in 2023 on just four fewer pass attempts.
With an outlier season, an aging No. 1 WR, a still-injured No. 2 WR, a promising rookie and a competent running back, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Mayfield take a step back in the touchdown department. Plus, offensive coordinator Liam Coen left town to be the head coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Mayfield’s QB7 ADP might be a tad too rich, leaving very little room to exceed or meet his draft cost.
Jared Goff (QB – DET)
Since 2022, Jared Goff’s passing touchdown numbers with the Detroit Lions have climbed. He went from 29 in 2022 (and 30 in 2023) to 37 last season. It wasn’t as massive an increase as Mayfield’s numbers, but it’s still worth noting.
Why? Well, like Mayfield, Goff also lost his offensive coordinator when Ben Johnson became the head coach of the Chicago Bears. Johnson is known for being arguably the best offensive mind in football today. Taking over for him is John Morton. He was a senior offensive assistant with the Lions in 2022 and the passing game coordinator for the Broncos in 2023 and 2024.
While he’s spent a lot of time as an offensive coach, I’m just not sure Morton has the same creativity as Johnson. With no rushing upside and a new offensive coordinator, Goff as the QB10 could, like Mayfield, leave little room to meet or exceed his ADP.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
