3 Overvalued Fantasy Football Draft Picks to Avoid on ESPN

With the NFL Preseason underway, season-long fantasy football season is on the horizon. That means it’s time to start formulating our 2025 fantasy football draft plan.

It may be early for some, but it’s never too early for the FantasyPros team. We’re already kicking things into high gear, looking for any edge we can gain against our opponents.

With player values swinging wildly from platform to platform, it’s essential to identify the outliers and mispriced players wherever you play. It could be the difference between winning and losing your favorite league. Here are three overvalued players to avoid in ESPN leagues at their current average draft position (ADP).

Overvalued Fantasy Football Players to Avoid on ESPN

Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF) | ECR: 13/ESPN: 7

After staying relatively healthy during his first two seasons in the Bay Area, everything unraveled in 2024 for San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey. Achilles tendinitis cost him the first eight games of the season, and then a posterior cruciate ligament (PCL) injury in his right knee sidelined him for the final five contests.

Last season’s consensus first overall pick in redraft formats played only four games in 2024, averaging 12 PPR points per game and finishing as the RB69 on the season. McCaffrey reportedly has “zero restrictions” at the moment, but his ongoing knee issues make him a risky selection this season.

While McCaffrey could certainly return to form this season, he is currently overpriced at No. 7 overall on ESPN’s platform. Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty is the safer option in this range, while you can also make a case for New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers, Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins and Miami Dolphins running back De’Von Achane.

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Cooper Kupp (WR – SEA) | ECR: 102/ESPN: 76

After eight seasons with the Los Angeles Rams, Cooper Kupp signed a three-year, $45 million deal with the Seattle Seahawks this offseason, marking the end of a decorated tenure that included a Super Bowl MVP and a historic 2021 campaign.

Now 32 years old, Kupp is on the downswing of his career. He has missed 13 games over the past two seasons and hasn’t looked like the same explosive playmaker since that 2021 season. His yards per reception dipped to just 10.6 last year, and he failed to crack 800 receiving yards despite playing in 12 games.

The move to Seattle doesn’t help matters. He’ll be catching passes from Sam Darnold, not Matthew Stafford, and competing for targets with Jaxon Smith-Njigba in a system that’s unlikely to funnel volume his way.

Despite these concerns, Kupp is currently ranked as the No. 76 overall player on ESPN’s platform. For reference, that’s 26 spots higher than his FantasyPros expert consensus ranking (ECR) of 102 overall. Let others draft the fading star and invest in higher-upside players with less tread on their tires.

Rhamondre Stevenson (RB – NE) | ECR: 117/ESPN: 93

The 2024 season was a tale of two halves for New England Patriots running back Rhamondre Stevenson. In the first half of the season, Stevenson averaged 14.6 points per game and scored 15+ fantasy points in five contests.

However, his average dropped to 8.7 points per game (RB32) in the final seven contests, and he failed to score 15+ PPR points during that span. While his overall numbers (RB28) may look decent on paper, Stevenson was largely unplayable late in the season.

Part of Stevenson’s decline can be attributed to his dependence on touchdowns while playing on one of the league’s weakest offenses. After scoring seven total touchdowns in the first eight weeks, he managed to score just once over the season’s final eight weeks.

Stevenson also struggled with ball security in 2024. He put the ball on the ground seven times, doubling his career fumbles in one season. With the addition of running back TreVeyon Henderson, who scored a 100-yard kick-return touchdown on his first NFL preseason touch, it is difficult to justify Stevenson’s current ranking of 93 overall on ESPN. For reference, he ranks as the 117th overall player in ECR.