Even after almost five full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been up to this point, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Even after almost five full months of the Major League Baseball and fantasy baseball seasons, it’s important to look for players who could experience positive and negative regression. With so few games and plate appearances for each player, we will see wild swings away from normal production, and the tendency is to overreact. Sometimes we think a player is what he has been up to this point, but that is far from the truth.
Regression often comes at players quickly. When we see a player on an extreme hot or cold streak, things are likely to course correct. That’s what we will try to predict here, with some advice on how to handle these moments.
Fantasy Baseball Regression Candidates
This series highlights players due for positive or negative regression compared to their recent performance each week to assist fantasy managers in viewing each one properly. Digging underneath the surface stats, we will examine some hitting and pitching metrics to determine if a given player is overperforming or underperforming what should be expected.
Last time, this piece correctly predicted negative regression for Kyle Manzardo (.105/.280/.263 in the last week) and positive regression for Marcus Semien (.278/.364/.667 with two home runs in the last week). Small samples are often not enough to show regression, but in baseball, things can change quickly. Regression, whether positive or negative, doesn’t always occur quickly, but the signs are often clear.
With the first 20 weeks of the Major League Baseball season behind us and about 35 games still to go for almost every team, there will be a lot of positive and negative regression moving forward. Let’s take a look at some of the past week’s largest outliers and see what their futures might look like.
(Stats up to date through August 19.)
Player Due for Positive Regression
Randy Arozarena has had a wild season of ups and downs, and right now is certainly one of the down periods. In his last week, he is hitting .133/.235/.167 with no home runs and just two RBI. Still,!there are clear signs that this slump could be turning around in the days ahead. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is just .182 over the last week, one of the 20 lowest numbers among qualified hitters in that time. He is walking nine percent of the time, meaning he is seeing the ball well. On the season, his hard-hit rate and barrel rate are way up over his 2024 output.
There are exactly four players in MLB who have at least 20 home runs and 20 stolen bases this year. Julio Rodriguez, Jose Ramirez, Pete Crow-Armstrong, and…you guessed it, Randy Arozarena. With 23 home runs and 24 stolen bases, Arozarena has entered an elite group this season. His batting average has also improved from past seasons. He hit .219 last season with a .388 slugging percentage, but now that is up to .250 and a .468 slugging percentage. He is also in striking range of setting career-highs in runs, stolen bases, home runs, and RBI.
Kyle Tucker is going to be getting some days off for a mental and physical break after he has been slumping terribly in August. In the entire month, his numbers look like this: .148/.233/.148 with no home runs, one RBI, and a 23% strikeout rate. He has been horrible, and hopefully the break gets him back in the right place to finish the season strong. But it shouldn’t be discounted that there is some horrible fortune working against him as well. As Tucker comes back to the lineup in the coming days, hopefully, that turns around for him, as well.
Over just the last seven days, Tucker is hitting an abysmal .091/.167/.091 with zero extra base hits. However, he is still walking in over eight percent of his plate appearances and has a .111 BABIP, which is about 170 points below the league average in that time. Tucker’s hard-hit rate is still over 40% and his barrel rate is 10%. Those are not his typical elite numbers, but they also don’t signal that Tucker should be one of the worst hitters in baseball over the last month. He has an expected slugging percentage of .502 this year, and should get back on track for the last five weeks of the season.
Players Due for Negative Regression
Overall, Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson has had an up-and-down 2025 season (just like the Braves, actually). He is hitting .273/.370/.461, but with just 19 home runs, a 24% strikeout rate, and a 41% ground ball rate. Compared to 2024, his barrel rate and hard-hit rate are all the way up this year. However, in the past two weeks, he is smoking hot.
Olson is hitting .414/.471/.552 with a very high 12% walk rate. Yet, somehow, Olson has no home runs and just one RBI in that time. One of these trends is not the real Olson. The question is, which one will last?
Unfortunately, it looks like the Olson who is hitting .414 is not going to last much longer. His BABIP over the last week is an astounding .600, and it’s combined with a 29% strikeout rate. His barrel rate is also just 5%, which is a very low number for someone hitting .414 in the sample. Add it all together, and you have a player on a wicked hot streak, but one that likely won’t last too long.
His expected slugging percentage is better than his season-long numbers, so some positive regression may come there. Still, don’t expect what we have seen over the last seven games. The lack of power is the tell here.
Like the Milwaukee Brewers, second baseman Brice Turang has been on fire lately. Over the last seven games, he is slashing .296/.321/.481 with a home run and five RBI. On the season, he is up to a .279 average with 13 home runs, 21 steals, and 75 runs. It’s just been an outstanding season for anyone who waited on second base and took Brice Turang late in fantasy baseball drafts. However, while the season-long production has been excellent pretty much all year, this latest hot streak will likely not last much longer.
Because of his speed, Turang has set a baseline of about .300 for his BABIP in his young career. That number is .341 this year and is a whopping .412 over the last week. In addition, he is striking out 32% of the time while only walking 3%. The combination of a high BABIP and poor patience at the plate should be a couple of flashing red lights telling us to beware going forward. Turang likely settles back down to his season-long number, but don’t expect a .300+ hitter the rest of the season.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | SoundCloud |TuneIn
