Football is an inherently unpredictable sport. Constant depth chart fluctuations, untimely injuries, and the rising parity across the NFL all contribute to its chaotic nature. This volatility carries over to fantasy football, where every player carries a baseline level of risk.
With this in mind, fantasy managers should aim to mitigate risk wherever possible. This is done by identifying assets whose range of outcomes is relatively narrow. While these players may lack true league-altering upside, they can be relied upon to provide steady production as long as they remain healthy. Such players are integral in balancing the calculated risks managers take elsewhere on their rosters.
In what follows, I’ll highlight some of fantasy football’s most trustworthy profiles. Managers should seek to invest in these players if they’ve swung for the fences in the earlier rounds of the draft.
Football is an inherently unpredictable sport. Constant depth chart fluctuations, untimely injuries, and the rising parity across the NFL all contribute to its chaotic nature. This volatility carries over to fantasy football, where every player carries a baseline level of risk.
With this in mind, fantasy managers should aim to mitigate risk wherever possible. This is done by identifying assets whose range of outcomes is relatively narrow. While these players may lack true league-altering upside, they can be relied upon to provide steady production as long as they remain healthy. Such players are integral in balancing the calculated risks managers take elsewhere on their rosters.
In what follows, I’ll highlight some of fantasy football’s most trustworthy profiles. Managers should seek to invest in these players if they’ve swung for the fences in the earlier rounds of the draft.
Safest Fantasy Football Players to Draft
Courtland Sutton has been the face of the Denver Broncos’ passing attack for several years. The 2024 campaign marked the fourth consecutive season in which the veteran led the team in targets. Since his appointment in 2023, head coach Sean Payton has made a distinct effort to feature Sutton heavily in the receiving game. Therefore, the offseason additions of TE Evan Engram and rookie WR Pat Bryant aren’t significant threats to Sutton’s elite target share. He figures to earn a great deal of downfield looks once again in 2025.
Denver’s fruitful offensive eco-system further contributes to Sutton’s reliability in fantasy football. QB Bo Nix is coming off a stellar rookie campaign during which he compiled an excess of 3,700 passing yards and 30 total touchdowns. Incoming RBs J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey will add some much-needed dynamism to this backfield, as well. Sean Payton, who’s earned a reputation as one of the league’s most ingenious play-callers, will help maximize the talents of Sutton and the remainder of the Broncos’ ancillary weapons.
According to Pro Football Focus (PFF) efficiency metrics, Sutton has made the most of his opportunities in Denver. He averaged a noteworthy 1.84 yards per route run and caught 57.1% of his contested targets in 2024. He also led the Broncos in receptions, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and first downs earned.
Sutton’s fantasy football upside is capped by his lack of explosiveness and yards-after-catch ability. Per PFF, he averaged 2.3 YAC per reception and forced just one missed tackle across the 2024 season. However, his stature as the unquestioned WR1 in a compelling offense makes him a very safe draft day investment. Based on his current cost as the WR22, he’s unlikely to disappoint fantasy managers.
The reigning Super Bowl Champions have playmakers all over the field. Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and Jalen Hurts may draw attention away from the remarkably consistent Devonta Smith. That being said, he should not fly under the radar for fantasy football managers. Smith has finished as a top-24 WR in half-PPR points per game in three consecutive seasons.
Smith has been among the league’s most effective pass-catchers since being drafted in 2021. Among WRs with a minimum of 80 targets in 2024, he ranked 12th in receiving grade, 17th in yards per route run, and 2nd in catch rate. With defenses locked in on the Eagles’ other stars, Smith often capitalizes on favorable matchups to maximize his efficiency on a per-touch basis. This will remain the case in 2025.
Despite often inheriting a secondary role for the Eagles, Smith has earned steady volume throughout his young career. Per StatMuse, he’s seen an average of 7.0 targets per game across four professional seasons. Interestingly, Smith ran a career-high 54.7% of his routes from the slot in 2024. This slight shift in usage may be conducive to more high-percentage looks in the short areas of the field and a subsequent increase in fantasy football production.
The Alabama alum’s output will always be limited by the sheer amount of pass-catching options in Philadelphia’s run-heavy offensive system. A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert will continue to prevent Smith from earning the volume required to become a true fantasy football superstar. Nevertheless, Smith’s undeniable route-running ability and consistent output make him a trustworthy option in the middle rounds of drafts.
A mere month ago, Pollard may not have qualified for this list. Speculation around the Tennessee Titans’ desire to employ a RB-by-committee approach in 2025 made Pollard’s fantasy football outlook quite murky. However, Tyjae Spears‘ ankle injury opens the door for Pollard to reclaim the Titans’ workhorse RB role in 2025. The veteran handled 57.8% of Tennessee’s total rushing attempts in 2024.
The remaining RBs on the Titans’ depth chart do not pose a significant threat to Pollard’s workload. For one, Julius Chestnut has accrued an uninspiring 114 rushing yards across his three-year career. On the other hand, rookie Kalel Mullings was drafted in the 6th round with an unspectacular prospect profile. He failed to surpass 1,000 rushing yards in any of his three seasons as a Michigan Wolverine.
With Spears sidelined, Pollard will undeniably handle the lion share of touches in this backfield. PFF metrics would suggest that he performed well in a similar role in 2024. He averaged 3.40 yards after contact per attempt, forced 39 missed tackles, and totalled 30 carries of 10+ yards. He also accumulated 41 receptions and 238 receiving yards as a receiver.
Tennessee’s porous offensive eco-system will ultimately hold Tony Pollard back from his true fantasy football ceiling. The Titans ranked 31st in PFF’s offensive grade in 2024. While rookie Cam Ward figures to be a stark improvement on the sub-par QB play in past years, there are still plenty of glaring holes on this roster. Pollard can thus be viewed as a reliable, volume-based asset who won’t provide week-winning upside.
Las Vegas’ offense is certainly trending upwards. The offseason additions of QB Geno Smith and head coach Pete Carroll will bring some much-needed stability to the Raiders’ passing attack. RB Ashton Jeanty and TE Brock Bowers are both generational prospects primed to take the NFL by storm in 2025. Jakobi Meyers, who’s been a consistent contributor for this team throughout the recent struggles, figures to produce at a high rate this season.
Meyers has now recorded a minimum of 71 receptions and 807 receiving yards in two consecutive seasons as a Raider. He’s managed impressive levels of output despite constant struggles at the QB position. With Geno Smith now in the fold, Meyers will have a great opportunity to convert more of his targets into fantasy football production. Per PFF, Smith’s adjusted completion percentage of 78.4% ranked 8th among qualifying QBs in 2024.
Meyers and Bowers spearheaded this pass-catching corps in 2024, each eclipsing 125 targets. None of the remaining receivers on this roster topped 80. While rookies Jack Bech and Dont’e Thornton Jr. bring intriguing skillsets, neither is expected to significantly cut into Meyers’ workload. Expect the veteran to command an elite target share once again in 2025.
Meyers’ upside is limited by his role as the second option behind Brock Bowers. Moreover, the offseason investments in Jeanty and Carroll point to a more run-heavy approach this season. While these factors limit Meyers’ fantasy football potential, his reliability makes him an excellent choice in the later rounds of drafts.
Subscribe: YouTube | Spotify | Apple Podcasts | iHeart | Castbox | Amazon Music | Podcast Addict | TuneIn
