Fantasy football is a game of numbers, trends and ruthless decision-making. Every year, managers fall into the trap of drafting players based on name recognition, past glory or blind optimism. But if you want to win your league, you need to follow a few hard rules, especially when it comes to age and quarterback changes. Here are three essential “Do Not Draft” rules to live by, backed by data, that can help you avoid landmines and build a championship roster.
- Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Fantasy Football Expert Rankings
- Fantasy Football Dynasty Rankings
- Fantasy Football Trade Tools
Fantasy Football: Do Not Draft Rules
Rule #1: No Running Backs Aged 28 or Older
Running backs age like milk in fantasy football. The position demands explosiveness, durability and volume — all of which decline rapidly after age 27. According to data from FantasyPros and Pro-Football-Reference:
– From 2018 to 2023, only two backs aged 28 or older finished as top-12 fantasy backs in PPR formats: Derrick Henry (2022, 2023) and Adrian Peterson (2018).
– The average fantasy points per game (PPG) for backs aged 28+ drops by over 20% compared to their age-25 season.
– Injury risk spikes: Running backs 28+ miss 35% more games on average than their younger counterparts.
– In 2022, backs aged 28+ averaged just 9.1 fantasy PPG compared to 13.4 for backs aged 25-27.
Even elite talents like Ezekiel Elliott and Todd Gurley saw steep declines once they hit the age wall. Gurley, for example, went from RB1 in 2017 to out of the league by age 26. Elliott dropped from 16.3 fantasy PPG in 2019 to just 8.3 in 2022.
Verdict: Unless you’re getting a massive discount, avoid running backs aged 28 or older. The cliff is real, and remember, Father Time is undefeated.
Rule #2: No Wide Receivers or Tight Ends Aged 30 or Older
Wide receivers and tight ends don’t fall off quite as sharply as running backs, but the decline is still significant, especially in terms of consistency and ceiling.
– From 2020 to 2023, only three receivers aged 30+ finished in the top 15: Davante Adams (2022), Keenan Allen (2023) and Adam Thielen (2020).
– Receivers aged 30+ average 2.5 fewer targets per game than in their age-27 season.
– Receivers over 30 see a 15% drop in yards per reception and a 20% drop in touchdowns.
– Tight ends aged 30+ (excluding Travis Kelce) rarely finish in the top five. Kelce is the only tight end over 30 to post multiple top-three seasons in the last decade.
– In 2023, wide receivers aged 30+ had a catch rate of 61.2%, compared to 67.8% for receivers aged 25-29.
The issue isn’t just age, it’s usage. Older wide receivers and tight ends often see reduced snap counts, fewer deep targets and are more likely to be rotated out in favor of younger, faster players. Even legends like Julio Jones and A.J. Green became fantasy ghosts after turning 30.
Verdict: Unless you’re drafting Travis Kelce or a receiver with a locked-in target share and an elite quarterback, steer clear of pass-catchers aged 30 or older.
Rule #3: Avoid Wide Receivers in Significantly Worse Quarterback Situations
Quarterback play is the lifeblood of wide receiver production. When a receiver moves from an elite quarterback to a mediocre one, their fantasy value often tanks, regardless of talent.
Let’s look at some recent examples:
– JuJu Smith-Schuster: Went from Ben Roethlisberger (2018) to a carousel of backups. His fantasy PPG dropped from 18.6 to 9.4.
– Allen Robinson: Left Chicago (where he had decent volume with Mitchell Trubisky) for the Rams in 2022, expecting Matthew Stafford magic. Instead, he posted a career-low 7.5 fantasy PPG.
– DeAndre Hopkins: After leaving Deshaun Watson for Kyler Murray, his target share remained high, but his yards per target dropped from 9.5 to 7.1, and his touchdowns fell off.
– In 2023, wide receivers who changed teams and downgraded at quarterback saw a 25% drop in total fantasy points compared to the previous season.
When evaluating receivers, consider:
- Quarterback accuracy (completion percentage and deep ball rate)
- Offensive scheme (pass-heavy vs. run-heavy)
- Target competition (wide receiver depth chart and tight end usage)
Verdict: If a wide receiver is moving from a top-10 quarterback to a bottom-tier one, or if their quarterback situation is unstable, downgrade them significantly. Talent alone won’t save them.
Bonus Tip: Combine the Rules
The real trap is when multiple red flags overlap. For example:
- A 30-year-old receiver switching teams and joining a rookie quarterback.
- A 28-year-old running back with declining efficiency and a new offensive coordinator.
- A tight end over 30 in a run-first offense with a low-volume quarterback.
These players are often drafted based on name value, but they rarely deliver a return on investment. They’re more likely to clog your roster than win you weeks.
Final Thoughts
Fantasy football is a game of probabilities, not possibilities. Sure, some older players or receivers in bad quarterback situations might defy the odds, but betting on outliers is a losing strategy over time.
Stick to these three commandments:
- No running backs aged 28 or older.
- No wide receivers/tight ends aged 30 or older.
- No wide receivers with downgraded quarterbacks.
Use age, situation and historical trends to guide your draft. Let others chase nostalgia while you chase championships.
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