Preseason games are happening thick and fast, and hot takes are appearing quicker than ever, which can mean only one thing: It’s fantasy football draft season. If you’re picking at the 1.04 or perhaps want to do some research into what your opponent might do at that spot, this is the article for you.
This series will give you an overview of what you can expect to see, no matter which first-round pick you draw. In what feels like a very strong first round, nailing your picks will be more important than ever.
- Fantasy Football Rankings
- 2025 Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- 2025 Best Ball Fantasy Football Draft Kit
- Free Fantasy Football Mock Draft Simulator
Fantasy Football Draft Strategy: Pick 1.04
Let’s dive into our approach for the fantasy football 1.04 pick for upcoming drafts. We look into the players likely to be available, those to target/avoid and share a mock draft from the pick to help you prepare for your fantasy football draft.
Players to Consider at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Here are a few players likely available when you make your selection:
- Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
- Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
- Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
- CeeDee Lamb (WR – DAL)
Players to Target at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
For the most part, the top targets in redraft average draft position (ADP) seem to be the same that we’ve seen in best ball leagues for most of the offseason. Ja’Marr Chase is the consensus 1.01, with a barrage of top talent fighting it out behind him.
In most leagues, we can expect Ja’Marr Chase to be off the board by the time we pick at the 1.04. Bijan Robinson is most likely also gone, but we still have strong choices to consider at pick 1.04.
Saquon Barkley (RB – PHI)
A few weeks ago, Saquon Barkley was starting to tumble in ADP and expert consensus rankings (ECR), coming off a historical year where he had well over 400 combined touches, including the playoffs. Barkley is still fifth overall in ECR, but has been pushed back up to the third overall in ADP.
The history of running backs seeing that much volume tends not to be kind to them in their next seasons, which is why it’s not as straightforward as some may like. Those starting their draft prep for 2025 now might be shocked to see Barkley isn’t the consensus 1.01, so don’t be surprised to see him taken this highly in drafts, even if the rankings are starting to drag him further down. At 1.04, this feels like a very easy pick.
Justin Jefferson (WR – MIN)
Another year, another quarterback for Justin Jefferson, but that hasn’t stopped Jefferson from producing, with him averaging 96.5 receiving yards per game throughout his career, with no year below 87.5. For reference, only five players averaged above that mark in 2024, one of whom was Jefferson.
Camp reports around J.J. McCarthy have been mixed, but generally, the Vikings seem to be confident they’ve made the right move putting their faith in McCarthy as he heads into his second year, ready to make his NFL debut. The last time Jefferson was the WR1 was 2022, and he’s been a mainstay in the top five receivers in PPR points per game since 2021.
That kind of consistency can be worth paying up for. It is a little hard, however, to elevate Jefferson ahead of Ja’Marr Chase when Jefferson is already missing time due to a ‘mild’ hamstring strain. While the use of the word mild is reassuring, soft tissue injuries can linger.
Bijan Robinson (RB – ATL)
Sometimes, rather than going off who finished highest last year, it can pay to take a more forward-thinking approach. Bijan Robinson ranked third among running backs in rushing yards (1,456) and scored only two fewer touchdowns than James Cook and Derrick Henry, who led all backs with 16 scores during the fantasy season.
Robinson also ranked first out of 46 running backs in the lowest proportion of his runs being stuffed at the line of scrimmage and ranked in the top two in success rate in both man and zone scheme runs, per Fantasy Points. In the receiving game, Robinson trailed only Jahmyr Gibbs with 58 receptions. He scores touchdowns, accumulates a lot of yards and earns targets – it’s the recipe we want to look for in the potential overall fantasy RB1.
Reports from Falcons training camp expect Tyler Allgeier to continue to spell Robinson at times, but the recurring theme is that Robinson will get a large volume of touches. Robinson feels likely to be gone by this point, but if he’s not, he’s an easy click.
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB – DET)
There is a slow and steady drumbeat forming for Jahmyr Gibbs in recent weeks, with established analysts such as Evan Silva and Ben Gretch both elevating Gibbs to their RB1 overall. In ECR, Gibbs has now flipped Barkley to be the RB2 behind Robinson.
Reports out of training camp suggest Gibbs could take a bigger share of the workload, despite the Lions still being enamoured with David Montgomery. We might be hesitant about drafting Gibbs at this spot, due to Montgomery’s looming presence in the backfield, but we’re all very familiar with his presence around the goal line, in particular.
Not to downplay David Montgomery, but man… imagine Gibbs full-time with no competition. pic.twitter.com/GWwuhGb1gg
— Tom Strachan (@NFL_TStrack) June 3, 2025
With that said, Gibbs finished as the RB3 in PPR points per game, third in running back total yardage, and sixth in running back targets. He was undeniably excellent and had six games with 20+ PPR points. Four of those games came when Montgomery was healthy and also playing. Gibbs is a ceiling outcome player who might not be as safe as other options, but there’s no denying his upside or how much fun he can be to watch.
Players to Avoid at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
Puka Nacua (WR – LAR)
The Rams are a team many believe are primed for a bounce-back year, having put their eggs in a Puka Nacua-shaped cart after moving on from Cooper Kupp. Davante Adams should help alleviate some of the pressure from Nacua, with him ranking 58th in ESPN’s open score metric, compared to Kupp, who ranked 108th out of 116 qualifying receivers.
Nacua has averaged 6.6 receptions per game over his two seasons and consistently delivered. The biggest reason not to elevate Nacua into the top tier of wide receivers is a lack of touchdowns, with him scoring 0.3 receiving touchdowns per game over the last two years. Compare that number to his fellow top receivers:
- Ja’Marr Chase: 0.72
- Justin Jefferson: 0.55
- CeeDeee Lamb: 0.56
If Nacua wants to be considered in the very top tier, this is the area he has to improve upon for fantasy football.
Christian McCaffrey (RB – SF)
This fade won’t be for everyone, but it would be naive not to acknowledge that Christian McCaffrey is a risky pick. He might be healthy right now, but he’s only played over 11 games once in the last four years, and having a first-round pick be a bust can be devastating, even if they are a league-winning type of back who brings elite volume and elite pass-catching skills when healthy.
So far this offseason, McCaffrey has been completely healthy, which is more than can be said for the 49ers’ backup running backs behind him. If he can stay healthy, he can potentially be a league-winner once again, but his health and age are clear reasons not to take him this early.
Roster Constructions to Consider at 1.04 Fantasy Football Draft Pick
The 1.04 opens up many roster construction possibilities, but it will largely come down to how you start your draft for how you want to proceed. If you take Justin Jefferson, there will still be appealing running backs available when it makes it back to you — players like Bucky Irving and Josh Jacobs ‚ and you’ll have access to the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends.
If you go running back to start the draft, the wide receivers who make it back are a little less appealing, with Tyreek Hill and Garrett Wilson both bringing question marks to their 2025 seasons. Because of this, you might find it easier to go with a Hero RB build with either your running back in the first round or second. If you lean into a Dual RB build, it can become much harder to build a nice wide receiver room, and you’ll have to pass up elite tight ends and quarterbacks to solidify the receiver position.
Fantasy Football Mock Draft From the 1.04 Pick
We used our FREE fantasy football mock draft simulator to show you an example of a draft from the 1.04 position. You can sync your league for free and mock draft against your fantasy football league settings to prepare more specifically for your draft.
Here’s how our fantasy football mock draft from the 1.04 position turned out.
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