There are no rewards for finishing second in fantasy football. Whether it’s a 10-, 12-, or even 14-team league, managers need to capitalize on upside in order to claim the ultimate prize. Given the inherently unpredictable nature of the game, upside often comes hand in hand with risk. Managers must therefore weigh a player’s potential ceiling against the likelihood of them falling short.
The 2024 season offered two prime case studies. Christian McCaffrey, dealing with nagging Achilles and calf ailments throughout the offseason, was viewed as a risky proposition at the very top of drafts. His superstar upside was undeniable, but vague injury reporting casted doubt on his availability. Those who invested in the veteran received little to no return on their early first round draft selection.
On the other hand, De’Von Achane was also seen as a precarious asset. While he showed undeniable flashes as a rookie, many cited concerns about his role in the Dolphins’ system or his ability to withstand a workhorse role. Achane silenced any durability concerns, logging a full 16-game slate as Miami’s bellcow back and producing as the RB7 in half-PPR formats.
Looking ahead to 2025, I’ll highlight several players who possess the same boom-or-bust dynamic. In each case, I’ll outline the avenues through which this player can rise to fantasy stardom or become a great disappointment over the course of the year.
There are no rewards for finishing second in fantasy football. Whether it’s a 10-, 12-, or even 14-team league, managers need to capitalize on upside in order to claim the ultimate prize. Given the inherently unpredictable nature of the game, upside often comes hand in hand with risk. Managers must therefore weigh a player’s potential ceiling against the likelihood of them falling short.
The 2024 season offered two prime case studies. Christian McCaffrey, dealing with nagging Achilles and calf ailments throughout the offseason, was viewed as a risky proposition at the very top of drafts. His superstar upside was undeniable, but vague injury reporting casted doubt on his availability. Those who invested in the veteran received little to no return on their early first round draft selection.
On the other hand, De’Von Achane was also seen as a precarious asset. While he showed undeniable flashes as a rookie, many cited concerns about his role in the Dolphins’ system or his ability to withstand a workhorse role. Achane silenced any durability concerns, logging a full 16-game slate as Miami’s bellcow back and producing as the RB7 in half-PPR formats.
Looking ahead to 2025, I’ll highlight several players who possess the same boom-or-bust dynamic. In each case, I’ll outline the avenues through which this player can rise to fantasy stardom or become a great disappointment over the course of the year.
Riskiest Fantasy Football Players to Draft
The New York Jets offense has undergone a drastic shift in culture and personnel. For one, QB Justin Fields has been appointed as the team’s new starter. While Fields’ downfield accuracy has been widely criticized, his rushing ability is only rivalled by the likes of Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. Newly-appointed head coach Aaron Glenn will look to instill the hard-nosed, pragmatic brand of football he championed as the Detroit Lions’ defensive coordinator. All signs point towards the Jets placing a greater emphasis on the running game in 2025. In theory, RB Breece Hall should be the primary beneficiary of this.
Since being drafted in the 2nd round of the 2022 NFL draft, Hall has emerged as one of the league’s most dynamic RBs. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), he’s averaged 3.37 yards after contact per carry and earned 35.6% of his rushing yardage via breakaway runs. He’s also regarded as one of the most sure-handed receivers out of the backfield, as he’s compiled an impressive 152 receptions and 1,292 receiving yards since entering the league. Given Fields’ propensity to target RBs in the passing game, this skill may prove to be very valuable in 2025.
The speculation surrounding a potential RB-by-committee in New York has raised concern about Hall’s fantasy outlook. Many assume Aaron Glenn could employ a similar RB touch split to the one Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery shared in Detroit.
Both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis showed encouraging signs throughout their respective rookie seasons. Allen’s PFF rushing grade of 82.0 ranked 14th among all RBs with a minimum of 60 carries. On the other hand, Isaiah Davis averaged 4.20 yards after contact per attempt and 5.8 yards per carry in limited usage in 2024. These players have been effective on a per-touch basis and may have earned a greater workload in 2025.
Another concerning aspect to consider is Hall’s sudden drop-off in efficiency. Per PFF, the former Iowa State Cyclone set career lows in elusive rating, yards per carry, and yards per route run in 2024. This is hardly what you’d expect from a highly-touted, 24-year-old RB who should be entering his prime.
The overall sentiment surrounding Hall and his role on the Jets has been quite negative this offseason. However, Hall possesses a true three-down skillset that has become increasingly rare in the modern NFL. He remains one of the risker propositions in drafts.
Kenneth Walker is yet another RB from the 2022 class who, since entering the league, has earned a reputation as one of the most electric RBs in the NFL. From an efficiency standpoint, Walker had career-best output in 2024. Among RBs with a minimum of 100 carries, he ranked 3rd in PFF rushing grade, 3rd in elusive rating and 8th in missed tackles forced. He did so despite running behind PFF’s 24th-ranked run-blocking unit. With a more run-conducive offensive eco-system in place in 2025, Walker may be able to improve upon this impressive performance.
The addition of first round OG Gary Zabel will provide a much-needed boost for this offensive line. The team also parted ways with pass-catching stalwarts DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett in the offseason, further signaling their intent to run the ball at a higher clip in 2025. Additionally, offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak was brought in for his play-calling expertise in the running game. His outside zone running scheme is a seamless fit for Walker’s elusiveness in open space.
The uncertainty surrounding Walker’s fantasy value hinges on his persistent health issues. Across the 2024 season, Walker missed time with a slew of oblique, calf and ankle injuries. He’s also missed a considerable portion of the 2025 preseason with a nagging foot ailment. In light of Walker’s lengthy injury history, the Seahawks may be inclined to reduce their star RB’s workload.
Zach Charbonnet, who has typically operated as Walker’s backup, has proven to be a reliable contributor when called upon. Per PFF, he averaged 3.35 yards after contact per attempt and earned an elusive rating of 81.3 in 2024. With Walker sidelined for much of preseason, Charbonnet has operated as the team’s pseudo-RB1 while gaining familiarity with Kubiak’s system. His strong preseason showing may have earned him a more consistent role in this backfield.
Walker is a remarkably explosive runner who now finds himself in a system that is tailored to his strengths. However, consistent health concerns continue to present uncertainty for fantasy managers.
Alvin Kamara has been a fantasy football superstar for nearly a decade. For years, his nose for the end-zone and surreal ability as a pass-catcher have made him an incredibly valuable asset. However, his current average draft position as the RB15 doesn’t quite reflect the high level of risk that is now associated with this player. New Orleans’ porous offensive ecosystem and Kamara’s declining levels of efficiency may prove to be too much to overcome in 2025.
Among RBs with a minimum of 100 carries in 2024, Kamara ranked 36th in yards after contact per attempt, 39th in elusive rating, and 28th in yards per carry (PFF). Entering his age-30 season, there’s little reason to expect those trends to reverse. He’ll be running behind PFF’s 22nd-ranked offensive line heading into the new season.
As a whole, the Saints’ offensive unit is among the league’s worst. Continued uncertainty surrounding the starting QB position has cast serious doubt on this team’s ability to move the ball downfield. For one, rookie Tyler Shough‘s draft capital and collegiate statistical profile aren’t encouraging signs for his 2025 outlook. Spencer Rattler struggled mightily throughout his rookie season, completing an uninspiring 57.0% of his passes and compiling a 4:5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. At any rate, Kamara and the Saints will likely have to endure subpar quarterback play for the foreseeable future.
Kamara’s upside case is his clear path to volume. None of the ancillary options in this backfield, including the likes of Devin Neal, Cam Akers and Kendre Miller, have proven to be reliable contributors at the NFL level. With this in mind, the veteran is primed to continue earning excellent levels of volume on the ground and through the air. Per StatMuse, he’s handled a minimum of 250 touches in 7 consecutive seasons. Fantasy managers will need to decide whether Kamara’s usage justifies the risk associated with New Orleans’ offensive woes.
