Start em or sit em? Fantasy football start or sit decisions can be excruciating. While it feels great to make the right call and cruise to fantasy glory, it hurts just as much when you have someone erupt while on your bench. You can use our Who Should I Start? tool to gauge advice from fantasy football experts as you make your lineup decisions. And you can also sync your fantasy football league for free using our My Playbook tool for custom advice, rankings and analysis.
Let’s take a look at a few polarizing players and what fantasy football expert Derek Brown advises. And you can find all of DBro’s fantasy football outlook in this week’s fantasy football primer.
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Fantasy Football Start’em, Sit’em Lineup Advice
Zach Ertz is the TE3 in fantasy points per game. He has a 16.7% target share with 1.34 yards per route run and a 20.9% first-read share. He has spiked touchdowns in both games this season. Las Vegas utilizes zone coverage at the highest rate in the NFL (92.9%). Against zone, Ertz has seen his target share increase to 17.4% with 1.68 yards per route run and a 24% first-read share. The Raiders have allowed the fifth-most yards per reception to tight ends. Ertz is a locked-in TE1.
Juwan Johnson is the TE2 in fantasy points per game while absorbing a massive workload in the Saints’ offense. He has a 25% target share, 1.71 yards per route run (62.5 receiving yards per game), and a 31.5% first-read share. Johnson leads the team with three red zone targets. It has been awesome to see. Seattle has the second-highest two-high rate in the NFL (69.2%). Against two high, Johnson has been the second option in the passing game with a 20% target share and 25% first-read share (both second on the team behind only Chris Olave). Johnson should have another strong game this week against a Seattle defense that has allowed the fourth-most fantasy points per game and 11th-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Kelce needs to stop dropping touchdowns. Or he could keep dropping them, but he can’t tip them up to the defense. For fantasy purposes, Kelce has been two drops away from being great for fantasy this season. With Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown both out, Kelce is guaranteed a steady target share. This week, he plays the Giants, who have allowed an average of 455 yards to opponents through two weeks. They have also allowed the ninth most fantasy points to the position this year. I have a feeling Kelce is due for a touchdown this week, and should be started as the clear TE five (maybe four over Laporta) for Week 3.
T.J. Hockenson has gotten off to a quiet start as the TE43 in fantasy points per game. He has a 17.1% target share (3.5 targets per game) with 13.5 receiving yards per game (0.66 yards per route run) and an 18.2% first-read share. The market share metrics have been fine, but with Minnesota moving to a more run-heavy approach, the volume just hasn’t been there. You’re probably starting Hockenson this week because of the state of the tight end position, but I can’t tell you to feel great about it. The matchup is at least in his favor. The Bengals have allowed the 14th-highest yards per reception and the tenth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Jake Ferguson is the TE7 in fantasy, absorbing a 20.9% target share and 25.4% first-read share while producing 1.46 yards per route run and 50.5 receiving yards per game. He’ll face a pass defense that has utilized the fifth-highest rate of two high (62.3%). Against two high, Ferguson has seen his target share increase to 23.8% with 2.16 yards per route run and a 33.3% first-read share. He should be busy in Week 3 as Dak Prescott‘s second option in the passing attack. Chicago is 18th in fantasy points per game allowed to tight ends.
David Njoku could finally have a TE1 week against the Packers. Njoku is the TE20 in fantasy points per game, seeing a 10.8% target share with a 75.8% route share. He has averaged only 38.5 receiving yards (1.03 yards per route run) with an 11.3% first-read share. These numbers aren’t amazing, but the matchup is juicy. The Packers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends.
Through two games, Mark Andrews has a total of four targets, seven receiving yards, and zero touchdowns. This is despite him leading the team with two red zone targets, having a 70.9% route share. He has had only an 11.8% first-read share. That first-read share did climb to 15.8% in Week 2, so I do think that Andrews will have better days coming. We’ll see if that is in Week 2, but I don’t have high hopes. The Lions rank 16th in yards per reception allowed to tight ends and have also given up the 11th-fewest fantasy points per game to the position.
I was down on Kyle Pitts last week, but I’m back in with Pitts this week as a strong tight end play. I worry about how much Atlanta will pass, but the bar to clear for a tight end to be a TE1 weekly isn’t a high one. Pitts is the TE13 in fantasy points per game seeing a 20.6% target share with 1.57 yards per route run and a 19.6% first-read share. This coverage shell matchup is perfect for him to succeed. Carolina has utilized single high with 56.5% of their defensive snaps. Against single high, Pitts has seen his target share balloon to 28.6% with 1.91 yards per route run and a 25% first-read share. Carolina has allowed the sixth-most yards per reception and the third-most fantasy points per game to tight ends.
Harold Fannin Jr. could post another nice stat line this week. He’s the TE9 in fantasy points per game, drawing a 15.1% target share (58.6% route share) with 55.5 receiving yards per game (1.91 yards per route run) and a 20.8% first-read share (second on the team). Fannin Jr. has one red zone target. The Packers have allowed the fifth-most fantasy points per game, the 11th-highest yards per reception, and the fifth-most receiving yards to tight ends. He could be Joe Flacco‘s go-to receiver this week.
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